GaWx Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Here is a thread for discussing the 2015 met. summer pattern in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The chance of storms is supposed to go up for the first part of this week. I will believe it when I see it. Storms have been very isolated here at best all spring. I don't recall having so few thunderstorms here before at this point into the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 We haven't been in a pattern conducive for thunderstorms most of the Spring. And remember, a chance of showers or thunderstorms is just that. A chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Here is a thread for discussing the 2015 met. summer pattern in the SE US. I'll take the under on pages needed to discuss hot and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 6z GFS this morning gives RDU 3.68" over the next 7 days starting Tuesday. 06z NAM has 2.41" through Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 6z GFS this morning gives RDU 3.68" over the next 7 days starting Tuesday. 06z NAM has 2.41" through Thursday morning. This would be good for the temps as well. We're now in that time of year where we'll depend on wet patterns to keep it from getting overly hot. Below is the 7 day forecast for our area. I now consider us in summer; and for summer I'll take this forecast any day: Today Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 77. North wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Let's see how this pans out... http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Looks like Tuesday through Thursday are the days with the biggest chance of storms. Seems like typical summer weather here with a 50/50 shot of storms in the afternoon. Well, used to be typical for summers growing up here but hasn't been the norm for a while. I don't see us getting that much rain from storms that I think will be widely scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Definitely a wet pattern setting up with a ULL closed off, parked just west of the area for a while. Troughing continues to rebuild in the east after the ULL moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 All good signs for some much needed rainfall across the area. Looks like we will have a weak cutoff low meandering across our area for pretty much the whole week which will help increase storms across a large part of our area which is great. Next it looks like a bit of a change in pattern with a weak trough setting up across the east for much if the area which will help temper any real big heat in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Definitely a wet pattern setting up with a ULL closed off, parked just west of the area for a while. Troughing continues to rebuild in the east after the ULL moves out.Just beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It might rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It might rain.There's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It might rain. Might not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 It might rain. Plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Plain rain? Rain in the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Might not Looks like and seems like rain from storms that I think will be widely scattered that hasn't been the norm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Rain in the plains? Sounds like it might although they're about as bad as predicting it as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Would be a Big Wet II if that happened. Let's see how this pans out... http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/…/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The long range GFS has 100 degree heat on it for much of SC, GA, and NC. It also show a major heatwave in Texas with temps over 110 in some places. It certainly seems like the dreaded heat ridge is coming, at least to the southern plains and probably our way not long after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The long range GFS has 100 degree heat on it for much of SC, GA, and NC. It also show a major heatwave in Texas with temps over 110 in some places. It certainly seems like the dreaded heat ridge is coming, at least to the southern plains and probably our way not long after that. Ahhhh no it doesn't, at least not the 12Z run...there is some upper 90's, low 100's way down in the deep south in interior AL/MS, Southern half of GA but not one location in NC or SC for that matter gets above 90 I think... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015060112&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Ahhhh no it doesn't, at least not the 12Z run...there is some upper 90's, low 100's way down in the deep south in interior AL/MS, Southern half of GA but not one location in NC or SC for that matter gets above 90 I think... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015060112&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=0 By day 10/11 it looks great (just maybe we can re-open some windows): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150601+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=264¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=252¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Also there is some heat showing in Texas but we'll have to see if that can verify with the current wet soils. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=324¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Plain rain? Cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015060112&time=PER&var=TMAXF&hour=384 100 degree heat from GSO to near Athens GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015060112&time=PER&var=TMAXF&hour=384 100 degree heat from GSO to near Athens GA. You're really looking at the 384-hour GFS for an accurate temperature prediction? Come on, shetley. We know you love to find portents of hot temperatures and dry conditions, but this is stretching it. It's just like a crazy 384-hour fantasy snowstorm in January. Not gonna happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015060112&time=PER&var=TMAXF&hour=384 100 degree heat from GSO to near Athens GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015060112&time=PER&var=TMAXF&hour=384 100 degree heat from GSO to near Athens GA. 384hr GFS......at least your right about it being long range, and I am sure there will be some days of 100 degree heat around, this is the south and its summer its kind of a given for most places. I wouldn't put much stock in that map though. Sit back and enjoy the week or showers and storms you got coming up, I am sure there will be other dry spells for you to harp about in the dog days of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Wow, looking pretty warm there in Greenville NC.Is it really humid there today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Wow, looking pretty warm there in Greenville NC.Is it really humid there today? Not by our standards....kinda dry RH is around 50, DP is upper 60's and there is a breeze not to bad overall..... its worse when its 88-92 with upper 70's DP and 75% RH those days are the worst. I will take 100 anytime over that because usually if we hit 100 the RH and DP are lower and it actually feels 100-102 versus 110 on the other days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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