Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 COD crew just tweeted a pic of a large tornado near Stratton earlier (Vona cell): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGxp9oeXIAEinpg.jpg:large What a day. Tough but very rewarding after many different decisions. Got north of Stratton at the perfect time and got to watch it begin from a great vantage point on the top of a hill. Will post some pictures and video hopefully later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Pretty strong rotation just north of Winona in Kansas. Could be a close call for the town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Pretty strong rotation just north of Winona in Kansas. Could be a close call for the town. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT* AT 927 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINONA...OR 19 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO EAST OF WINONA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but appears to be two circulations. One east of Winona, and one west. Edit: or there was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but appears to be two circulations. One east of Winona, and one west. Edit: or there was. Definitely looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Definitely looks that way. Wow. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHCENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...AT 935 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED NEAR WINONA...OR 17 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 15MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 935 PM CDT...A RAIN- WRAPPED TORNADO CONTINUES ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME EAST OF WINONA AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Downtown Denver and the Rockies game going on there taking a direct hit from severe storm. Just torrential rain/hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 STILL in progress... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THOMAS AND NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES... AT 1014 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONUMENT...OR 12 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MONUMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 Caught an intermittent tail end Charlie tornado by Winona a little after sunset. After missing on the Colorado storms, decided to get east and noticed that the end of the line in western Kansas was beginning to deviate right. The reports of a large tornado are erroneous. As usual, it was accompanied by a very low, but expansive wall cloud and attendant inflow. At night with some obstructions and yet another supposed large tornado that wasn't large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Caught an intermittent tail end Charlie tornado by Winona a little after sunset. After missing on the Colorado storms, decided to get east and noticed that the end of the line in western Kansas was beginning to deviate right. The reports of a large tornado are erroneous. As usual, it was accompanied by a very low, but expansive wall cloud and attendant inflow. At night with some obstructions and yet another supposed large tornado that wasn't large. well the actual reports said that it was a "large stovepipe" and think that the GLD NWS more so decided to just put that wording in the warnings... A stovepipe isn't usually that impressively large compared to a cone or wedge. Nevertheless, it did seem to be a fairly long lived tornado basing off of the reports, warnings, and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 For the Winona vicinity tornadic supercell, I witnessed a funnel begin to lower and start kicking up dirt at 9:22 p.m. Three minutes later, NWS Goodland "confirmed" a tornado, so the touchdown was likely right around those times. Here's a photo from 9:45 p.m. and you can just make out the tornado. This was 5 ESE Winona, KS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 At least per models and current trends, eastern Nebraska appears to be the best "traditional" target today. More thunderstorm development is likely further west across the High Plains too. The overlay of CAPE and shear looks solid in this region and an outflow boundary from the morning convection can work as a focal point. VAD profile data from UEX shows decent turning in the low levels with 30+ knot winds in the boundary layer. Sizeable hodographs are shown on the models for the area, particularly around Lincoln/Omaha and points just NW. Some capping may hold off initiation until late, however. HRRR for Omaha late this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Quick video grab of the Stratton, CO tornado yesterday which did briefly grow into a wedge from our vantage point looking NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Whys the 1730Z D2SWO not out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Quick video grab of the Stratton, CO tornado yesterday which did briefly grow into a wedge from our vantage point looking NW Nice, pretty major league looking tornado for CO right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Nice, pretty major league looking tornado for CO right there. Here is my video of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 Mesoanalysis has been showing upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in southeastern Nebraska. With that ramping up tonight, I could see a tornado threat persisting for a few hours after sunset from northeastern Nebraska into far northwestern Iowa. I also think the environment can support a strong tornado. HRRR forecast sounding for the Omaha area early this evening. Impressive low-level helicity. This is the inflow region for storms expected to develop to the northwest. Edit for calcification on geographical area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Mesoanalysis has been showing upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in southeastern Nebraska. With that ramping up tonight, I could see a tornado threat persisting for a few hours after sunset from far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. I also think the environment can support a strong tornado. HRRR forecast sounding for the Omaha area early this evening. Impressive low-level helicity. image.jpg Don't really see how you force a storm down there with that nose. I think it's more NW of GRI or up to northeast NE as the two plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 Don't really see how you force a storm down there with that nose. I think it's more NW of GRI or up to northeast NE as the two plays.HRRR sounding points are limited. FWIW I am targeting northeastern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 10% sig hatched tornado risk added in 20z outlook for parts of Siouxland (primarily northeast NE). Pretty strong wording too. Impressive backing of the surface winds continues across much of the eastern portion of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Tornado watch with 70/40 probs issued for NE, SD, SW MN and NW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Initiation nw of Phillipsburg KS. The event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Initiation nw of Phillipsburg KS. The event begins. That convection has been ongoing for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I guess you could say instability is a little high across parts of the Dakotas. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I guess you could say instability is a little high across parts of the Dakotas. LOL Noticed that awhile ago...guess SPC meso page must be having some problems on some parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I guess you could say instability is a little high across parts of the Dakotas. LOL basically every instability parameter is messed up on the SPC meso page... Lol. Is something drastically wrong with the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Perhaps now we will legitimately get the ball rolling on this event. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 433 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... BUFFALO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 433 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ODESSA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KEARNEY...GIBBON...RAVENNA...SHELTON...ODESSA...RIVERDALE AND POOLE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 258 AND 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 18z 4 km NAM is pretty insane for a bit later, supercells all over the place in SE SD and E NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Really frustrating that SPC meso page is out of whack with many parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Slightly worried about deep layer shear, and these initial NE NE cells are adding to that. We've gotten away without a ton lately, but HRRR/RAP analysis shows we're struggling to break 30 kt, given near southerly surface flow. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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