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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Oops...I said Quincy. I meant Socks. But yeah, I remember you talking about it too.

 

Wait .. Socks is Quincy... I'm getting my alias' mixed.   Who's who ? I know I met 'zuck once, and I think Quincy once, but I didn't know of them as Socks - ha..  

 

Anyway, I hope it does flood in for 9 hours... and it would be brief.  The models are all quite fast with synoptic roll-outs here. That contributing flow moves off like in 10 hours or something, and the resulting high retreats E almost as fast. The wind will be around to the S in prep for the next fropa that same evening it would seem.

 

By the way, the Euro flipped right back to hot as hell from NYC S D6-9... I think it was Will that was commenting the other day (rightfully) that patterns in the summer are hard to lock on ... case in point.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Wait .. Socks is Quincy... I'm getting my alias' mixed.   Who's who ? I know I met 'zuck once, and I think Quincy once, but I didn't know of them as Socks - ha..  

 

Anyway, I hope it does flood in for 9 hours... and it would be brief.  The models are all quite fast with synoptic roll-outs here. That contributing flow moves off like in 10 hours or something, and the resulting high retreats E almost as fast. The wind will be around to the S in prep for the next fropa that same evening it would seem.

 

By the way, the Euro flipped right back to hot as hell from NYC S D6-9... I think it was Will that was commenting the other day (rightfully) that patterns in the summer are hard to lock on ... case in point.  

Mr Zucker retained the socks/tubes moniker at the infamous GTG at Funkys where he and Skier in Vt drove down to chuck some back with us. Mr Zucker sporting knee highs and shorts, hence, socks/tubes. Great call by him.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

What are we at, "Bill" or "Claudette" ... 

 

Invest to 50% beyond day 2 ...NW Car to western Gulf of Mex.. 

 

Watch that, should a strong entity evolve out of that thing, would likely impose synoptic changes from late middle range onward. 

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

By the way, the Euro flipped right back to hot as hell from NYC S D6-9... I think it was Will that was commenting the other day (rightfully) that patterns in the summer are hard to lock on ... case in point.

the ensembles have been hitting that time period for a while
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Heavy rain Mon with temps low 60 upper 50s , joy , looks like a movie day off. Tomorrow should be stellar though.

 

GFS brings 3"+ to the Berks and S.VT...someone is going to get quite wet.  Good region wide soaking for the region that needs it most in CNE/SNE.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

GFS brings 3"+ to the Berks and S.VT...someone is going to get quite wet.  Good region wide soaking for the region that needs it most in CNE/SNE.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_apcpn_neus_10.png

 

Not to be a noog but ..I'm a bit suspicious of convective feedback there.  The GFS ...when tracking that back in time to initializations, appears to be keying in on random on-going perturbations around the western periphery of the "righ of fire" that is collocated and astride the MV region... As that activity curvilinearly migrates out of the Gulf through TX ..up toward IL and then turns E... out in time the GFS seems to "manufacture" more low pressure/closed isobaric structure than is really supported aloft.  

 

It makes that whole idea come under suspicion.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

There is going to be a good slug of rain across some areas between tomorrow night and Monday.  Some pretty hefty PWATS being modeled...perhaps as much as 2.0'' and a potentially fairly strong LLJ advecting further moisture from the south and/or southeast.  The lift is certainly going to be there with the warm front around.  There will probably be a few areas of max totals given how we could see some good upslope rains as well.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Thursday isn't really a "ROF" setup - pretty powerful shortwave just plowing in. The only thing really interesting about this is that forecast shear is quite high with 50-60 knot winds at 700 hpa. If winds are out of the SE... stick a fork in it... but may have to watch for a narrow area of CAPE/shear juxtaposition. 

 

Either way it does look like an active pattern with several s/ws and hopefully some semblance of EML advection beyond D10. 

 

00z suite last night did start banging that drum a little.

 

I was going to post about it, but was afraid of the avalanche of :weenie: I was going to get.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

00z suite last night did start banging that drum a little.

 

I was going to post about it, but was afraid of the avalanche of :weenie: I was going to get.

 

It would be nice to get an EML to work in but that's just a small step...then it's getting an EML to remain in place ahead of an advancing cold front.  I can't stand the times when we get EML advection but they either erode or push out before anything can happen with them.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

00z suite last night did start banging that drum a little.

 

I was going to post about it, but was afraid of the avalanche of :weenie: I was going to get.

 

You know what would be really awesome and Ekster mentioned this a few years back.  It's great that we have dates and such of severe weather events which have occurred with an EML in place but what would be even more great if we could somehow gather a list of dates in which an EML was in place and nothing really panned out or just an EML advected in briefly.  I think Ekster said something like generating some sort of code and having a program get that info.  

 

Or I guess it could be done by hand but it would be extremely time consuming unless you had a number of people working on it.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

You know what would be really awesome and Ekster mentioned this a few years back.  It's great that we have dates and such of severe weather events which have occurred with an EML in place but what would be even more great if we could somehow gather a list of dates in which an EML was in place and nothing really panned out or just an EML advected in briefly.  I think Ekster said something like generating some sort of code and having a program get that info.  

 

Or I guess it could be done by hand but it would be extremely time consuming unless you had a number of people working on it.  

 

You would have to search sounding lapse rates most likely. Something like 700-500 > 7 C/km would qualify. Then you weed them out by hand to see if they were truly an EML or not.

 

He definitely wants to do a null case follow up. At least I'm pretty sure he's said that. I don't know we talk a lot about the weather.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

You would have to search sounding lapse rates most likely. Something like 700-500 > 7 C/km would qualify. Then you weed them out by hand to see if they were truly an EML or not.

 

He definitely wants to do a null case follow up. At least I'm pretty sure he's said that. I don't know we talk a lot about the weather.

 

Is there a program out there that you could do this on?  Like a program that anyone can download?  It would be cool to start doing something like this.  

 

I remember like 3.5 years back I started looking at the archived soundings from University of Wyoming and literally checking each 0z and 12z sounding for ALB/OKX and a couple others for every day since 1950 (although I don't think OKX became available until years later) but it was a pain not the best method to use

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Is there a program out there that you could do this on?  Like a program that anyone can download?  It would be cool to start doing something like this.  

 

I remember like 3.5 years back I started looking at the archived soundings from University of Wyoming and literally checking each 0z and 12z sounding for ALB/OKX and a couple others for every day since 1950 (although I don't think OKX became available until years later) but it was a pain not the best method to use

 

There are definitely programs out there that can do this, some of which my require writing your own code, but I am definitely not the person to ask about that.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

There are definitely programs out there that can do this, some of which my require writing your own code, but I am definitely not the person to ask about that.

 

damn it I hate writing code.  I took a visual basic class my junior or senior year of high school and it sucked.  I guess though it was just basic HTML which I still hated so I just looked up Red Sox trade rumors in class, the weather and just copied code off the girl sitting next to me.  

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