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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Aren't we kind of due for one of these, when ALB can't get below 75 one night.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm#4th1995

No I think you mean when BTV is 82/70 at 3am with a 30kt southerly flow, haha. Those are good indicators of some severe weather in the area. The steamy and windy BTV summer night.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Heat stays well south next 10 days on last night's Euro OP. SE US torch. Best severe ,ring of fire, over the top type convection may stay SW as well. Monday looks very chilly and wet. Record low maxes for some? Kevin's favorite weather.

you think its that cold Monday? Wonder if apologies to Tubes will be given. Kevs AN everyday for for the rest of the month appears in jeopardy, 5 days into the prediction. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The "AN"/torch crowd appears to be in a lot of trouble. I see a lot of onshore and southeasterly flow over the next 7-10 days. Not a great way to run a torch. 

 

No horses in that race ... but I'd caution that appeal, at least, take it with a grain of salt folks. 

 

It's new.  2 cycles ago, the preponderance of buckling and incurring N-stream over SE Canada wasn't nearly as pronounced, and accordingly, less lower Maritime high pressure production mean less of what Ryan's seeing..

Particularly in the Euro.

 

How many times do you see a BD front collocated with a ridge node that exceeds 590 DM heights!?  That's all suspect to me. Fronts don't maintain identity, ...much less arrive up underneath those kind of atmospheric features.  Not that anyone asked, but my first suggestion would be to question the late middle and extended range Euro's entire S-SE Canadian amplitude - it appears over valued. 

 

I have no doubts that we won't sustain heat over the OV/NE regions -- it's been the tenor of the early summer thus far so why buck trend. But I think all the operational models are suspect from 00z.  Definitely would like to see some continuity there.  

 

Personally I think we are just as likely to see more of a transitory pattern between some warmth/humidity and some convection, back to NW dry mild air during the next 10 days.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

No horses in that race ... but I'd caution that appeal, at least, take it with a grain of salt folks. 

 

It's new.  2 cycles ago, the preponderance of buckling and incurring N-stream over SE Canada wasn't nearly as pronounced, and accordingly, less lower Maritime high pressure production mean less of what Ryan's seeing..

Particularly in the Euro.

 

How many times do you see a BD front collocated with a ridge node that exceeds 590 DM heights!?  That's all suspect to me. Fronts don't maintain identity, ...much less arrive up underneath those kind of atmospheric features.  Not that anyone asked, but my first suggestion would be to question the late middle and extended range Euro's entire S-SE Canadian amplitude - it appears over valued. 

 

I have no doubts that we won't sustain heat over the OV/NE regions -- it's been the tenor of the early summer thus far so why buck trend. But I think all the operational models are suspect from 00z.  Definitely would like to see some continuity there.  

 

Personally I think we are just as likely to see more of a transitory pattern between some warmth/humidity and some convection, back to NW dry mild air during the next 10 days.  

loop of 12 Z GFS 2m temps seems to agree with Ryans assessment

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015061312&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=200

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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The only thing of interest this week is the potential for some storms on Thursday. GFS has an OK look with some really strong winds. We'll see. It's been a brutally boring stretch otherwise. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The only thing of interest this week is the potential for some storms on Thursday. GFS has an OK look with some really strong winds. We'll see. It's been a brutally boring stretch otherwise. 

ring of fire would say sw ct has best threat anything NE of HFD is out of the game for a while. You'll probably get your severe fetish satiated in July with the NINO climo kicking in (probably seeing the early stages of that this week upcoming)

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

ring of fire would say sw ct has best threat anything NE of HFD is out of the game for a while. You'll probably get your severe fetish satiated in July with the NINO climo kicking in (probably seeing the early stages of that this week upcoming)

 

Thursday isn't really a "ROF" setup - pretty powerful shortwave just plowing in. The only thing really interesting about this is that forecast shear is quite high with 50-60 knot winds at 700 hpa. If winds are out of the SE... stick a fork in it... but may have to watch for a narrow area of CAPE/shear juxtaposition. 

 

Either way it does look like an active pattern with several s/ws and hopefully some semblance of EML advection beyond D10. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't shock me. Could be some afternoon mid 50s with rain up here.

Yeah I was talking to Nzucker the other day about that apparent "acceleration" ...perhaps a secondary cool push in the llvs during that time frame.  There's modeled a heck of a lot of confluence to roll through from SE Canada to E of Maine, and that is the key ingredient for BDs.   However, because we are already behind today's earlier fropa it's sort of "masking" the presence -- perhaps this physically mutes the idenity in the pp for any such boundary. But the cool push with strata into NE zones and likely up ur way .. can see that happening, unless all that structure changes..

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was talking to Nzucker the other day about that apparent "acceleration" ...perhaps a secondary cool push in the llvs during that time frame.  There's modeled a heck of a lot of confluence to roll through from SE Canada to E of Maine, and that is the key ingredient for BDs.   However, because we are already behind today's earlier fropa it's sort of "masking" the presence -- perhaps this physically mutes the idenity in the pp for any such boundary. But the cool push with strata into NE zones and likely up ur way .. can see that happening, unless all that structure changes..

Oops...I said Quincy. I meant Socks. But yeah, I remember you talking about it too.

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