Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

It will be really an amazing feat as we turn that cold first week entirely around and end the month AN at all big 4. Truly remarkable flip

You act like this has already happened...BOS will have a tough time finishing above normal with two 49F days to start the month as well as another backdoor coming. Ocean temperatures are still cool so E/NE flow Sun-Tues will lower highs a lot.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

You act like this has already happened...BOS will have a tough time finishing above normal with two 49F days to start the month as well as another backdoor coming. Ocean temperatures are still cool so E/NE flow Sun-Tues will lower highs a lot.

You are vastly overplaying this backdoor you speak of. Everything is backing way off on that. Bos might have 1 day that stays in the 70's or something
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You act like this has already happened...BOS will have a tough time finishing above normal with two 49F days to start the month as well as another backdoor coming. Ocean temperatures are still cool so E/NE flow Sun-Tues will lower highs a lot.

Lol. You took the bait.

You should know by now that he likes to make outrageous predictions in high quantity since eventually one of those longshots verifies and he can sound prophetic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Lol. You took the bait.

You should know by now that he likes to make outrageous predictions in high quantity since eventually one of those longshots verifies and he can sound prophetic.

Why is that outrageous? I'm not following. We're entering a very warm to at times hot pattern for at least 2 weeks . To finish AN isn't outlandish at all
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I don't even see a bd. Maybe just some southerly onshore flow for SNE?

yeah I really didn't understand what he meant. Nothing shows prolonged e/ne flow for 3 days. He should just accept its going to be a warm AN summer and take his socks off and get outside and enjoy summer activities before it's over. Summer goes by way too fast
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

yeah I really didn't understand what he meant. Nothing shows prolonged e/ne flow for 3 days. He should just accept its going to be a warm AN summer and take his socks off and get outside and enjoy summer activities before it's over. Summer goes by way too fast

will you go into hiding again if its not?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Why is that outrageous? I'm not following. We're entering a very warm to at times hot pattern for at least 2 weeks . To finish AN isn't outlandish at all

 

 

Stations are running -4 to -7F through 6/9. Just because it is somewhat above normal the rest of the month doesn't mean we finish the month positive. It's not an outlandish solution to finish positive (though it would take an impressive 2 weeks after mid-month), but it is kind of outlandish to act like it is a foregone conclusion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I did too, unless it was just that exchange with Tippy.

 

I still think it was the busted drought calls ;)

I nail a lot of things..and i bust a fair amount of things. I always fess up and admit when I low a call. You'll never see me run from that. I took a week off..because I did not like what a certain someone(s) demeanor towards me was and some flagrant things that were said

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Characterizations of NE summers aside ...

 

This pattern looks above normal -- we'll find out how much... 

 

That ending sentiment is as much an acknowledgement of uncertainty as it may be construed as a warning.  Though the PNA is technically statistically dead and poorly correlated, JJA, I think that's bullschit and don't know what/why NCEP scientists believe that is so. They must mathematically prove it so, and ...of course, are bound by such in their policies, but far too often in the summer, a strong negative PNA parlays into a -PNAP and some sort of SW heat expulsion/Sonoran release... or in the least, the -PNAP forces continental processed air NE takes place; and I've never seen that happen during a +PNA.   

 

All of which we have, both suggested in the teleconnectors, but we are fighting the NW/N ridge rim with what looks to me like MCS city... Oscillating between said continental warmth and returns to normalcy.  But that equates (assuming success...) in above normal; at least for the next 10 days or so.  Who knows thereafter...  

 

The warning part of that above is that at any time, that much strongly -PNA working with a +NAO like CDC hints is precariously close to just ballooning heights in the east.   Right now the operational version won't pull that trigger, ...but in a few of them I counted three plumes exceeding 21C at 850 getting clipped through the MA.  Tele's aren't opposed to what the operational runs merely haven't taken advantage of - and perhaps that is only yet. 

 

Meh, not much at stake there; talking whether we get popped by a heat wave or two versus 85/66 type stuff..

 

By the way, NAM MOS has KFIT 90 tomorrow and Friday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

*** NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK ***

MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY INCREDIBLY STRONG RIDGING OVER SW ALASKA STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALONG 30N IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN TIME ON EITHER SIDE OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE LOWER LATITUDES. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-70/64 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN PARTS OF GA/SC WHICH IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH VALUES. PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE RATHER STALLED SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER SUN-WED. AREAS FROM N TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF MODEST RAINFALL."

 

I also think that heat ... possible big heat, could easily make a run at the OV and higher along the MA with this. It's going to come down to really nailing the amplitude of the eastern ridge.  The tele layout would allow for a greater N expanse... but NCEP appears reluctant to even acknowledge that in limiting things to the I70 corridor and mentioning fronts getting that far S ... What that means for us here in SNE...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

*** NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK ***

MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY INCREDIBLY STRONG RIDGING OVER SW ALASKA STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALONG 30N IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN TIME ON EITHER SIDE OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE LOWER LATITUDES. THIS WILL FORCE THE MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-70/64 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS

BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN PARTS OF GA/SC WHICH IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH VALUES. PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE RATHER STALLED SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER SUN-WED. AREAS FROM N TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF MODEST RAINFALL."

 

I also think that heat ... possible big heat, could easily make a run at the OV and higher along the MA with this. It's going to come down to really nailing the amplitude of the eastern ridge.  The tele layout would allow for a greater N expanse... but NCEP appears reluctant to even acknowledge that in limiting things to the I70 corridor and mentioning fronts getting that far S ... What that means for us here in SNE...

 

Some nice ridge runners in the MA while we bask in the cirrus blowoff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Some nice ridge runners in the MA while we bask in the cirrus blowoff. 

 

Not a bad point Scott -  this is inherently a good MCS regime from the Lakes to New England...  

 

Obviously, if we could have our druthers we'd opt out of stagnating in a sack sticker air mass and foist up some tropopause turners instead... buuuut, 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This is kind of neat... 

 

The NAM cuts a weak frontal passage through New England tomorrow, and it sets up a micro-sort of BD for NYC. 

 

36000504454 00308 142909 70201814 36000685427 00998 150907 72232114

42000334141 -0403 142307 72271914 42000604830 -2198   151407 74252314 

 

The bold is the wind at LGA and notice it's flipped around E while BOS (Logan) maintains and off-shore component.  The temps reflect too - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...