June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[Ginx snewx]

so, yea not just speaking locally but this was not good. Like Will said its a crap shoot in summer.

 

[TalcottWx]

What makes Intermediate to long term summer temp predictions so difficult?

In new england this time of the summer season I think a lot of it has to do with the cold ocean..

[ORH_wxman]

What makes Intermediate to long term summer temp predictions so difficult?

 

 

Forecasting in summer is generally harder than in winter as a whole because the polar jet is much weaker and poleward....that leaves things like convection and diabatic heating/cooling as much larger variables in perturbing the flow than they would be in winter. The models generally have their worst scores in the summer.

[Whineminster]

Forecasting in summer is generally harder than in winter as a whole because the polar jet is much weaker and poleward....that leaves things like convection and diabatic heating/cooling as much larger variables in perturbing the flow than they would be in winter. The models generally have their worst scores in the summer.

I thought you said its harder to forecast in the winter, because its hard to forecast 33 degree rain vs. 32 degree snow and exactly where that line will set up, or how far south an arctic front will plunge, etc..  In summer the weather is relatively predictable...."hot, humid, and stormy.....or clear....or cloudy"? 

[dendrite]

I thought you said its harder to forecast in the winter, because its hard to forecast 33 degree rain vs. 32 degree snow and exactly where that line will set up, or how far south an arctic front will plunge, etc.. In summer the weather is relatively predictable...."hot, humid, and stormy.....or clear....or cloudy"?

Statistically the models score worse in the warm season.

[Whineminster]

Forecasting in summer is generally harder than in winter as a whole because the polar jet is much weaker and poleward....that leaves things like convection and diabatic heating/cooling as much larger variables in perturbing the flow than they would be in winter. The models generally have their worst scores in the summer.

 

Statistically the models score worse in the warm season.

 

Ok, but isn't forecasting different from Modelology? 

[ORH_wxman]

Ok, but isn't forecasting different from Modelology?

Yes. An individual storm in winter can be one of the most difficult forecasts. But then again, forecasting thunderstorms is extremely difficult too.

However, in the context of the discussion up thread, forecasting above or below normal temperatures in the summer is much more difficult than the winter in the medium range.

[dendrite]

Ok, but isn't forecasting different from Modelology?

Well every season has its challenges. The public is quite nitpicky about snowfall/ice in the winter. In the warm season it's more about sun/clouds and rain/dry. Pick your poison.

I think Will was more focused on temps when he said that. The global/synoptic scale tends to dominate the sensible wx in the cold season and since the models handle H5 better then it's easier to predict temp anomalies in the long range vs summer. The warm season is more precip dependent.

[dendrite]

Yeah Will beat me to it. iPhone typing ftl.

[donsutherland1]

When does the heat (75+) return, late next week?

Warm anomalies may return next week as the MJO shifts into Phase 2. Driven, in part, by the strengthening El Niñ, the most recent amplitude for the MJO was the 10th highest on record for June. Prior to that reading, 1997 had the 11 highest readings on record for June.

 

Below are the temperature anomalies for 1997 (Phases 1 and 2):

 

[#NoPoles]

Hey Don, nice to see you here, I followed your SW desert monsoon posts religiously...I must be late to the party, I just noticed your locale in NY

[Typhoon Tip]

Warm anomalies may return next week as the MJO shifts into Phase 2. Driven, in part, by the strengthening El Niñ, the most recent amplitude for the MJO was the 10th highest on record for June. Prior to that reading, 1997 had the 11 highest readings on record for June.

 

Below are the temperature anomalies for 1997 (Phases 1 and 2):

 

 

 

Mentioned the emerging warm signal for mid month back in the mid 60's posts too.  

 

It's still there in frets and starts in the various operational runs. The lesser dependable types have been a bit excessive (looking) with it. That frankenGAP model has a plateau heat release like you read about in the latter middle/extended... The Euro's been flip-flopping with mass fields a bit too much, but does appear to at least have it every other run or so. 

 

Personally I think the MJO is a bit of an over-rated tool.  Particularly as we enter summer and the gradients everywhere get weak, it is much more difficult to transmit a teleconnector through any medium for that matter.  That's in part why CDC doesn't even put up PNA correlations during JJA...  But the MJO for me only works when the middle and upper latitudes are in sync/positive wave interference... other wise, the wave can be strong but the pattern down stream represents far less correlation.  

 

In keeping with that ... tho the wave strength may be weak-moderate, if might just have enough oomph to link up with the behavior of the westerlies as we enter more tendency to neutralize the PNAP... Such that the emerging signal gathers more legs.  

 

hm. interesting

[CT Valley Snowman]

That was a toasty Euro towards the middle and end of next week.  850 temps up around 17 to 18C. If we can avoid too much debris clouds I wouldn't be suprised if the torch valleys made a run at 93-95 if that type of setup verified. Monday has lost some of the juice so to speak with the convection, it doesn't really look like we warm sector on the Euro but I could see some elevated type convection trying to spill over the Berks/Litchfield Hills towards evening. 

[donsutherland1]

Hey Don, nice to see you here, I followed your SW desert monsoon posts religiously...I must be late to the party, I just noticed your locale in NY

Thanks for the kind words, though I suspect you're referring to someone else with respect to the southwest monsoons.

[donsutherland1]

Mentioned the emerging warm signal for mid month back in the mid 60's posts too.  

 

It's still there in frets and starts in the various operational runs. The lesser dependable types have been a bit excessive (looking) with it. That frankenGAP model has a plateau heat release like you read about in the latter middle/extended... The Euro's been flip-flopping with mass fields a bit too much, but does appear to at least have it every other run or so. 

 

Personally I think the MJO is a bit of an over-rated tool.  Particularly as we enter summer and the gradients everywhere get weak, it is much more difficult to transmit a teleconnector through any medium for that matter.  That's in part why CDC doesn't even put up PNA correlations during JJA...  But the MJO for me only works when the middle and upper latitudes are in sync/positive wave interference... other wise, the wave can be strong but the pattern down stream represents far less correlation.  

 

In keeping with that ... tho the wave strength may be weak-moderate, if might just have enough oomph to link up with the behavior of the westerlies as we enter more tendency to neutralize the PNAP... Such that the emerging signal gathers more legs.  

 

hm. interesting

I believe there are times when the MJO can work quite well, usually with high amplitude. Sometimes it has little connection to the pattern, too. That the MJO is probably being driven, at least in part by the El Niño, may also suggest that this time around it may provide some good insight, especially as the atmosphere has been responding to the ENSO event.

[weathafella]

Through 6/5:

BOS: -12.7

PVD: -9.6

ORH: -8.8

BDL: -7.4

[dendrite]

Through 6/5:

BOS: -12.7

PVD: -9.6

ORH: -8.8

BDL: -7.4

GYX -10.9

AUG -10.4

PWM -9.1

MHT -8.2

CON -6.3

No surprise that the interior radiators have the smallest departures so far.

[Ginx snewx]

UGH

[Typhoon Tip]

Through 6/5:

BOS: -12.7

PVD: -9.6

ORH: -8.8

BDL: -7.4

 

Impressive numbers Jerry.  Would seem difficult to overcome given to what June typically brings.  Hi heat in June happens to fall short more often at our latitude, of +20 type temperatures given that it's nearing a temperature apex month... thus, the 'frequency' of substantively above normal days would theoretically fall short of 'enough' to compensate for such big deficits. 

 

It sort of pays homage to just how extreme of a butt banging that first 4 days was this month...

[Typhoon Tip]

Don, the 00z guidance (as I'm sure you are aware..) bit on the concept a bit harder... 

 

I'm almost wondering if we end up with more a humid, transitory thunderstorm pattern. The SE ridge is midland in depth, and really only rims us while a steady diet of +12 C 850s are delivered from the SW.. The mean polar boundary in this sort of scenario should align from the GL to SE Canada with quick S/W zipping along. That would place us vulnerable to instability intervals ... perhaps sparing the hottest temps type of deal. 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice Indian Ocean heat pulse in an emerging Nino, things are pretty whacky. Apparently this isn't going to be your Daddy's Nino

[CoastalWx]

Nice Indian Ocean heat pulse in an emerging Nino, things are pretty whacky. Apparently this isn't going to be your Daddy's Nino

 

Hopefully that doesn't cause trade winds to cool the western regions.

[tamarack]

GYX -10.9

AUG -10.4

PWM -9.1

MHT -8.2

CON -6.3

No surprise that the interior radiators have the smallest departures so far.

 

Farther north

 

BGR -10.2

CAR -5.4

 

Caribou's hilltop location doesn't radiate all that well, but they also had some sun peeks during June 1-3 and so weren't quite as chilly as points south.

[Ginx snewx]

Models backing off on heat again, Pete Repete?

[powderfreak]

Models backing off on heat again, Pete Repete?

I picture Blizz lurking and throwing his laptop at the wall when he reads most of your posts haha.

[nzucker]

Farther north

 

BGR -10.2

CAR -5.4

 

Caribou's hilltop location doesn't radiate all that well, but they also had some sun peeks during June 1-3 and so weren't quite as chilly as points south.

Caribou is away from the marine "muck" for the most part and thus isn't seeing as large of an effect from the NE winds and rain we had those first couple days of June.

 

Down here near NYC, my highs to start June have been 58, 55, 64, 62, 70, 73. That's got to be close to a record cool start especially with the forecast of low 70s for Sunday and Monday. Average highs are from 77-78 at this time of year. I've also had two nights in the 40s, a couple in the low 50s, and a forecast of 52F tonight and 55F tomorrow night. Average low is almost 60F now. 

 

Reminiscent of 2009 and even 2003 for sure.

[donsutherland1]

Don, the 00z guidance (as I'm sure you are aware..) bit on the concept a bit harder... 

 

I'm almost wondering if we end up with more a humid, transitory thunderstorm pattern. The SE ridge is midland in depth, and really only rims us while a steady diet of +12 C 850s are delivered from the SW.. The mean polar boundary in this sort of scenario should align from the GL to SE Canada with quick S/W zipping along. That would place us vulnerable to instability intervals ... perhaps sparing the hottest temps type of deal. 

The pattern you describe is well within the realm of possibility, IMO. Even as I remain reasonably optimistic that a period of warmer than normal weather will be on tap, that doesn't mean that there will be intense heat. There will probably be at least several days with readings in the 80s. Greater warm anomalies will probably occur in the Mid-Atlantic region.

[weatherwiz]

Thursday has a very interesting look.  Highly dependent on frontal position and timing and such

[CT Valley Snowman]

Thursday has a very interesting look.  Highly dependent on frontal position and timing and such

Tuesday doesn't look terrible either. Nam generating some decent CAPE ahead of the CDFNT. Timing, cloud cover, and marine taint are probably an issue, especially in southern and eastern areas but we could bang. Monday looks good for bangers down is South Central PA. Close enough for a chase?

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... starting to look more and more as though my ideas for the summer are not going to be correct. 

 

I was really thinking the ~ 18 mo (and counting) tendency for the EPO domain/western region of the PNAP to remain more positive in the geopotential medium, than the eastern part of North America ... would dim the summer down; much like last summer, with a fairly locked in albeit dry like cyclonic flow that would envelope the NP-GL-NE.  

This kept much of last summer very tempered from serious heat.  We had typical translations of convective episodes that demarcated oscillatory cool to warm, with less organized weather events supporting < bigger departures from normal temperature and precipitation.

 

All long words for, temperate and boring.  

 

The book-end winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were really quite comparable.  They both featured a preponderance of -EPO phase state, and at times linked with +PNAP to really control the pattern with deep layer NW flow through the Canadian Shield into the GL. The difference was that the conveyor of cold, albeit not as extreme as 2013-2014, happened to be a 1,000 or so KM E this last winter.  All in all, we were in a longer termed persistence - it would seem - where at times the patterns would deviate, but the rest-state/return favored that regime. 

 

I think it may be finally changing.  Perhaps the transition will fight back and forth.  May seemed to offer a presage to the change... and then we got a four-day event recently where a cold polar high and mid latitude supportive blocking migrated N of us, and put our area into a scenario quite similar to that long duration February snow event (believe it or not...) I was looking at that and the two constructs mirrored one another.  Fascinating.  I guess you get -25 daily anomalies when you transpose Feb on the end of May... 

 

But here we are in the aftermath and the progressive pattern is trying to return in all operational and ensemble means therein. It may not even be the new semi-persistent base-line pattern, but it certainly is different..  Not fully convinced the former won't return.. However, as the ENSO warm signal continues to mature, the tug of war between the NP and El Nino might provide for some interesting antics.