June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles keep it similar right through d15. Aob for first half of July but hopefully we can at least sit between 75-85 making it feel like summer.

Yup. Actually looks pretty nice the week of 7/5. Comfortably cool - maybe a one day muggy up. 

 

Another soaker coming on Friday though. 

[moneypitmike]

Sky's beginning to brighten a bit here in GC.  Not sure if that means sun or not, but it's better than it was.

[weathafella]

We are talking about next week. Not the normal temps this week

Well then you didn't read what he posted as the discussion was through this week which you said would bust. You won't be normal this week and if you're lucky you'll be just normal next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well then you didn't read what he posted as the discussion was through this week which you said would bust. You won't be normal this week and if you're lucky you'll be just normal next week.

one day of storms this week then sunny rest of week till the 4th. I'll take normal

[CT Rain]

one day of storms this week then sunny rest of week till the 4th. I'll take normal

 

I'm guessing you didn't look at any overnight model runs... especially their depiction of the 3rd.

[weathafella]

Forecassting what I want since 2003....

[scoob40]

 

Looks about normal for the last week of June.

[powderfreak]

Forecassting what I want since 2003....

lol...the weather can be whatever you want.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm guessing you didn't look at any overnight model runs... especially their depiction of the 3rd.

I haven't seen anyone calling for a rainstorm on Friday. Your station has sunny and 84

[kdxken]

lol...the weather can be whatever you want.

[powderfreak]

Now this would be a nice airmass for mid-July...with 0C H850 air moving south in Quebec.

[Damage In Tolland]

Would this be a nice airmass?

 

29-06-2015

[Dan]

That is only 1 panel of the run....and of all the panels that is warmest of them all. Looks like a 1 day shot out of the next 10 days.   The one before and the one after look like this:

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

That is only 1 panel of the run....and of all the panels that is warmest of them all. Looks like a 1 day shot out of the next 10 days.   The one before and the one after look like this:

Are you surprised that he cherry picked the warmest panel?

[powderfreak]

Would this be a nice airmass?

29-06-2015

Not too bad at all...850 temps of 12-16C for a day up here before that shortwave trough over the Lakes swings in. Maybe 80-85F for a day?

[dendrite]

No real change on the ecens through mid month. Mostly troughy with an occasional transient shortwave ridge. Still a monster ridge across western NAMER through d15.

[Dan]

Are you surprised that he cherry picked the warmest panel?

 

No.

[Brian5671]

MJO record spike in phase 6-7 argues cooler

[moneypitmike]

Sun's shining in GC already.  Guess I should go clean the pool.

 

55.5/55.  Must be pretty wet under the Davis.

[tamarack]

Now this would be a nice airmass for mid-July...with 0C H850 air moving south in Quebec.

image.jpg

 

Hello, upper 30s.

[Ginx snewx]

No real change on the ecens through mid month. Mostly troughy with an occasional transient shortwave ridge. Still a monster ridge across western NAMER through d15.

Nino climo AWT, the calls of AN by some in the MET community and referenced by DIT here really surprised me. One month in and a half month of forecast and it's not looking great for the warm winning out crew. Obvious absence is obv

[CT Rain]

I haven't seen anyone calling for a rainstorm on Friday. Your station has sunny and 84

[Damage In Tolland]

An op run 5 days out.. And you're raining and cold on Fri? Good luck

[IsentropicLift]

An op run 5 days out.. And you're raining and cold on Fri? Good luck

[CT Rain]

An op run 5 days out.. And you're raining and cold on Fri? Good luck

 

Most GFS ensemble members are wet and 1 in 3 Euro ensembles have >0.25" liquid. 

 

Thanks for playing though. 

[OceanStWx]

Most GFS ensemble members are wet and 1 in 3 Euro ensembles have >0.25" liquid. 

 

Thanks for playing though. 

 

I think many might sacrifice Friday if Saturday would be as nice as the GFS suggests.

[CT Rain]

I think many might sacrifice Friday if Saturday would be as nice as the GFS suggests.

 

Yup - that's for sure. 

Spending a week in Narragansett starting the 4th. Would like some nice weather though I'm thinkng we may have some issues.  

[Damage In Tolland]

I certainly wouldn't be raining out an entire day on July 3 based on a precarious op run. I'd say a chance of a shower/ storm

[Damage In Tolland]

Most GFS ensemble members are wet and 1 in 3 Euro ensembles have >0.25" liquid.

Thanks for playing though.

How come the mets at your station didn't forecast rain/ cold/washout on Friday ? Instead sun and 84. Interesting

[CT Rain]

I certainly wouldn't be raining out an entire day on July 3 based on a precarious op run. I'd say a chance of a shower/ storm

 

Thanks for the input. I'm sure the professionals have been sitting in this thread hitting the refresh button to hear your thoughts.