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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The sun will break through at 7:30 and someone will be applying aloe on his balls claiming victory.

Pretty obvious even a few days ago. When models have the boundary hanging over you, think in reality further south and lousy. You don't rush in nice weather with northeast winds.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Pretty obvious even a few days ago. When models have the boundary hanging over you, think in reality further south and lousy. You don't rush in nice weather with northeast winds.

 

Agreed ... paraphrasing what I wrote earlier, I've never seen a warm boundary out pace the models when it comes to 'tuck' patterns.  The tuck is more powerful than the sun its self... Just relentless - 

 

The worst is winter, when it's 33 F tucking bringing an early demise to an otherwise impressive ice storm ..like, if it's going to tuck-bang, it may as well hit 31.9.  

 

I just I don't tucking phenomenon is a plague that appears endemic to just the eastern half of New England and I don't really see that it does any good, at any time, for any one. It's either not enough and teasing, or ruining altogether, take a pick.  

 

Or like in spring, when a BD comes down and inserts NW Atlantic vomit east of the Berks, and west of the stablizing cold ocean, such that it gets sub-synoptically trappped.  If you look at at stream line analysis, it's anticyclonic from PWM outward in all direction. Christ, CAR up in Maine is around to SW and balmy before this area -- god hims self is less powerful than tuck...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I haven't done the number crunching, but if it wasn't for May I'd assume we may have been able to make a run at coldest year on record in some spots.

 

Really ... colder than the 19th century?  

 

I suppose it could be, for any station/site that's only existed for 70 years ...   :P  j/k. 

 

Yeah, it might be interesting to see how the chips fall... but, it's also only month 5 of this years so -

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

do you guys realize the GFS operational has been putting out heights in access of 590 DM .... OVER ALASKA. 

 

imagine that in the winter

It's one rainy day guys...gee wiz.  Suck it up.  

bummer to have both weekend days washed out essentially-I sit in front of a computer Mon-Fri, so it's a killer when we end up with garbage weekends

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

Continued at or below normal through the weekend

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Barring any lawsuit regarding a seemingly specious do not compete, this will be my last full week of care-free living prior to starting my new job.  Hoping for a mix of beautiful days with a storm or two thrown in for good measure.  Of course, based on the prior statement, my vacation may be extended a bit.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Continued at or below normal through the weekend

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY

* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT

TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.

THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH

AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/

CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE

DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER

AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...

/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO

INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS

THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...

YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION

THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE

EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW

ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN

WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND

EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE

AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

One look at ensembles says that won't be correct
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