June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[powderfreak]

Interesting that BDLjust went from 72/58 to 72/51 (dew dropped 7F in 1hr) as the virga moves in overhead.  I would've guessed it would go the other direction.

[Damage In Tolland]

How's that Sun in CT this morning Kevin?

You tell me. Just taken at 2:10

[OceanStWx]

Latest HRRR showing 60 knot gusts over Bennington County early tomorrow morning (10z).

[RIcoastalWX]

65/57 - Light Rain/Sprinkles  10 to 12 mph ENE wind.

 

Only took a matter of minutes from when the echoes overhead first appeared and when the first raindrops started to fall.  

[weathafella]

You tell me. Just taken at 2:10

Nice venue but it does look cloudy with sun not even able to cast shadows. Temps are ok though here and probably even warmer there.

[CoastalWx]

RAP is real slow, but develops quite the LLJ south of New England at 10z. 

[IsentropicLift]

You tell me. Just taken at 2:10

You know darn well that's not what you meant by sunny

[Damage In Tolland]

You know darn well that's not what you meant by sunny

im still tanning and drinking and its 3:03

[OceanStWx]

im still tanning and drinking and its 3:03

 

GTL at KTOL?

 

I will say this is a good exercise in what the public interprets as "sunny" and "cloudy"

 

Our forecasts usually end up overcast when this cirrus comes overhead, but does the public consider that cloudy if they can see the sun/still need glasses/lotion, etc. I try to leave cirrus out of the equation when I forecast, unless it's dense cirrus obscuring the sun.

[backedgeapproaching]

BTV concurs with the Winter-like set-up...H85 SE Jet is 4 SD above normal apparently.

Backedgeapproaching...I think you are in a SE downslope wind zone, may get gusty for a while!

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE

WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER

VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,

AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF

50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I

MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW

LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT

EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL

TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z

MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE

EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL

OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET

WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES

OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF

CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN

ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN

CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,

AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST

RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS

THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO

45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.

Interesting. There was an event a few months ago with some intense SE downsloping winds, actually snapped a birch on my property. Those winds were insane--seemed like sustained 40+mph for hours.

[powderfreak]

GTL at KTOL?

 

I will say this is a good exercise in what the public interprets as "sunny" and "cloudy"

 

Our forecasts usually end up overcast when this cirrus comes overhead, but does the public consider that cloudy if they can see the sun/still need glasses/lotion, etc. I try to leave cirrus out of the equation when I forecast, unless it's dense cirrus obscuring the sun.

 

Jerry mentioned no shadows in that picture...that's sort of when I think sunny becomes cloudy.  No shadows, cloudy.  Shadows, sunny.

[IsentropicLift]

im still tanning and drinking and its 3:03

Rain is on the doorstep for Hartford as we speak. If that's tanning weather for you then you must have really lowered the bar. 

[dendrite]

GTL at KTOL?

I will say this is a good exercise in what the public interprets as "sunny" and "cloudy"

Our forecasts usually end up overcast when this cirrus comes overhead, but does the public consider that cloudy if they can see the sun/still need glasses/lotion, etc. I try to leave cirrus out of the equation when I forecast, unless it's dense cirrus obscuring the sun.

observation wise...you see this with the larger ASOS sites vs the smaller ASOS/AWOS ones. BOS could be reporting OVC250 only while OWD is sporting the CLR. People tuning into TWC see the cloudy icon whereas Norwood residents get the beaming sun despite the same conditions.

[CoastalWx]

Downpours for Dendrite....hell downpours for all it appears.

[dendrite]

Downpours for Dendrite....hell downpours for all it appears.

I'm hoping for some impressive rain growth.

[OceanStWx]

observation wise...you see this with the larger ASOS sites vs the smaller ASOS/AWOS ones. BOS could be reporting OVC250 only while OWD is sporting the CLR. People tuning into TWC see the cloudy icon whereas Norwood residents get the beaming sun despite the same conditions.

Difference between human augmented and stand alone ASOS/AWOS sites. I believe we only have PSM and BGR in our local area that will augment clouds.

[CoastalWx]

I'm hoping for some impressive rain growth.

I like the medium, but dense droplets myself.

[eekuasepinniW]

I like the medium, but dense droplets myself.

Megadrops along the edges of storms ftw.

 

All the other sizes are just varying degrees of miserymist.

[Typhoon Tip]

Extended Euro's getting hotter and hotter with every run... Now has a mega ridge from the front range to off the EC, with a D8-9 SW release at 850... 

 

Spoke about this earlier; another run in the the same vane. 

[moneypitmike]

You tell me. Just taken at 2:10

 

Man, that sun is showing some weak sauce.  Angle must be lowering.

 

Is that Chez DIT?  Nice pool!  Lots of skinny dipping?  Wiz coming over like Cousin Eddie? 

[moneypitmike]

I'd really like to be in Lunenberg for this event--I can't imagine how much will fall there.

 

62.9/56

[Typhoon Tip]

This thing is being gobbled up by dry air... 

 

Some places in upstate NY have only been raining for an hour and the dry slots but and hour away... Hard to run a flooder that way.  

[moneypitmike]

This thing is being gobbled up by dry air... 

 

Some places in upstate NY have only been raining for an hour and the dry slots but and hour away... Hard to run a flooder that way.  

 

Are you calling bust?

[powderfreak]

This thing is being gobbled up by dry air... 

 

Some places in upstate NY have only been raining for an hour and the dry slots but and hour away... Hard to run a flooder that way.  

 

HRRR still showing 3"+ amounts on the east slopes of the Berkshires...but yeah dry air eating into this like a winter storm, haha.

 

[powderfreak]

Are you calling bust?

 

BUF with 0.68" in 3-hours and over an inch of rain this afternoon.  Looks like a lot of the upstate NY sites are getting a good 3-hour burst of around a half inch with that leading WAA (?) band.

 

If you take winter climo with these...the dry slot will come in a little earlier than expected and the bulk of the event happens in like a 6-hour thump.  Like winter forecasts for 12-24" in central NY turn into 8-12" in like 6 hours then dry slot followed by 1-3" of showery stuff... as the models were a little too aggressive with QPF in the isentropic lift.

[codfishsnowman]

lolol

[weathafella]

That stuff south of NYC is potent...and heading our way.

[powderfreak]

That stuff south of NYC is potent...and heading our way.

Yeah straight down to the Delmarva...lots of moisture moving almost due north.

[powderfreak]

observation wise...you see this with the larger ASOS sites vs the smaller ASOS/AWOS ones. BOS could be reporting OVC250 only while OWD is sporting the CLR. People tuning into TWC see the cloudy icon whereas Norwood residents get the beaming sun despite the same conditions.

Yup, MVL all day has been CLR for the most part with a big sun icon on all the local conditions when to be honest we haven't seen sun since like late morning. It's like full overcast the past couple hours, and still CLR at the ASOS.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ...I was talking about upstate NY... 

 

And PF's right about dry punches tending to beat the guidance - that's all that is. Dry air eats the onset while the back edge keeps trucking along and closes the precipitable gap.  

 

As for us, I think the MA action vestigial evolves N along the coast as strataform with embedded elevated convection for Sunday morning and it'll probably rain hard.