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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Most of the wind should stay above the inversion, but given how ensemble guidance is hitting at really large 1000 mb anomalies, it's probably worth a wind advisory on the coast. BOX already has one up.

Yeah wind won't be an issue inland unless something like downsloping can transport those winds to the surface in localized areas.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Spinner threat seems low to me too.

 

From where I'm sitting it's an 'all or nothing' sort of thing...

 

Using the FRH grid...Noticing LGA spikes to 26 C at 18z tomorrow, with a S wind.  Meanwhile, BOS has a S wind that suddenly backs to due N at a weak drift at that same time.

 

What all that means is that BOS is just teetering with a warm boundary that doesn't make it... Which means, I bet dimes to donuts that HFD to PVD has penetrated, and those locations might be helluva low level unstable for a couple few hours with a ton of directional shear.  

 

I think in this set up if you are N of said boundary, 0.  If you are S of it, any convection with earthward extending low LCL cloud tendrils could EFO.  

 

Btw, this has had that same look to me for some three days...  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I mean I might agree if we could really and truly get the warm sector much into SNE, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the case. SREF keep the best environment along and south of Long Island.

 

Close enough that we don't completely write off watching the radar, but not so close that I would be hitting it too heavily in the forecast.

 

 

Seems like when the triple point approaches the LLJ is already displaced north. There is some surface based instability that develops later tomorrow morning but by that point in SNE the kinematics are pretty meh. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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My gut says the eastern Adirondacks where BTV and ALY's CWA meet is going to jackpot on rain. That area can do impressively well in SE flow upslope rain events....along with SVT east slopes.

 

Yeah agreed ...as your own NWS folk noted that 4+ SD inflow of SE wind transporting hefty PWATs... the elevations will "bulge" that channel as it goes up and over and that lift axis would have seeding all the way down... haha.  It's like raining underwater - wow.  

 

I think it's interesting also how the meso models appear to be honing in on that western New England axis with this -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Seems like when the triple point approaches the LLJ is already displaced north. There is some surface based instability that develops later tomorrow morning but by that point in SNE the kinematics are pretty meh. 

 

Hmm, good point!   

 

I wasn't nearly as detailed in my eval.  I just saw a low pressure depicted rattling around western MA and perceived the MOS and FOUS products as having a warm boundary extending E across the Pike - or so.   That much may be so, but like you guys say ... if the mechanics are pealed off it may be tough to trigger and so forth.  

 

Also... we should keep in mind that by "spinners" ...aren't we talking EFO type weak stuff?  How much mechanical bulk shear does that require - you really just need to pass some exhaustive CAPE over the top of 0-3km directional for that.  

 

interesting...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I mean some of those cells perhaps near the triple point certainly could have rotation. I suppose you can't rule it out, but I probably would like SSTs a bit warmer to help with low level CAPE too. Like you all said, one of those things where if it happened it wouldn't be surprising....it just might not be a high likelihood I guess.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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I mean some of those cells perhaps near the triple point certainly could have rotation. I suppose you can't rule it out, but I probably would like SSTs a bit warmer to help with low level CAPE too. Like you all said, one of those things where if it happened it wouldn't be surprising....it just might not be a high likelihood I guess.

 

Yeah you never know. Problem is getting that surface based instability to overlap with the enhanced shear near warm front. 

 

The setups that seem to produce are when you've got dew points in the low 70s already and a roaring LLJ overhead with some smaller scale boundaries or even a secondary warm front to focus stuff. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Yeah you never know. Problem is getting that surface based instability to overlap with the enhanced shear near warm front.

The setups that seem to produce are when you've got dew points in the low 70s already and a roaring LLJ overhead with some smaller scale boundaries or even a secondary warm front to focus stuff.

Yeah exactly. Should be fun though. I'm looking forward to a good storm.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

this is clearly a southwest flow event  :P

 

seriously though ... winter or summer, does it matter?  The physics of overrunning don't magically changes just because we are 30 DM up the scale in the thermal layout. 

 

Rad has beauty of cyclonic curl around the mid level vortex over the southern Lakes, with the overrunning shield extending through the upper cordillera/PA and so forth.  You can easily imagine the transition zones in that structures if it were winter.  When the bulk of the tropospheric vortex tracks NW of the area and there's cool air banked over the area, it's the same regardless of time of year. 

 

Actually, if one is anal there's even hints of ageostrophic drain on the NAM... 64 F draining out of SW NH.. Haha, if that ain't a better smack in the face of summer I don't know what is...

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

this is clearly a southwest flow event  :P

 

seriously though ... winter or summer, does it matter?  The physics of overrunning don't magically changes just because we are 30 DM up the scale in the thermal layout. 

 

Rad has beauty of cyclonic curl around the mid level vortex over the southern Lakes, with the overrunning shield extending through the upper cordillera/PA and so forth.  You can easily imagine the transition zones in that structures if it were winter.  When the bulk of the tropospheric vortex tracks NW of the area and there's cool air banked over the area, it's the same regardless of time of year. 

 

Actually, if one is anal there's even hints of ageostrophic drain on the NAM... 64 F draining out of SW NH.. Haha, if that ain't a better smack in the face of summer I don't know what is...

 

SSTs still a bit on the cool side, but we have the right conditions for a coastal front. At the least wind field might be able to act as one, even if we can't get the thermal boundary.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I do think that's a distinct possibility. Though BTV does a better job with that than us.

 

I gotta imagine your N.NH zones to the NW of the Whites and especially MWN/Presidential Range area would downslope quite significantly with that strong of a SE flow.

 

Though I think the length and uniformity of the Green Mountain Spine creates a larger scale sinking air motion as it comes over the crest...I always picture it like a water coming over a dam and just crashing down on the other side.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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I gotta imagine your N.NH zones to the NW of the Whites and especially MWN/Presidential Range area would downslope quite significantly with that strong of a SE flow.

 

Though I think the length and uniformity of the Green Mountain Spine creates a larger scale sinking air motion as it comes over the crest...I always picture it like a water coming over a dam and just crashing down on the other side.

 

We probably do, but we never hear about it like BTV does. Not enough population impacted I guess.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

this is clearly a southwest flow event  :P

 

seriously though ... winter or summer, does it matter?  The physics of overrunning don't magically changes just because we are 30 DM up the scale in the thermal layout. 

 

Rad has beauty of cyclonic curl around the mid level vortex over the southern Lakes, with the overrunning shield extending through the upper cordillera/PA and so forth.  You can easily imagine the transition zones in that structures if it were winter.  When the bulk of the tropospheric vortex tracks NW of the area and there's cool air banked over the area, it's the same regardless of time of year. 

 

Actually, if one is anal there's even hints of ageostrophic drain on the NAM... 64 F draining out of SW NH.. Haha, if that ain't a better smack in the face of summer I don't know what is...

 

You can picture a colored radar in winter showing snow breaking out from BGM to NYC, while a large area of PA near CTP is pink with mixed.

 

Anyway, I've missed these systems in the winter...always a good sign for us up in the NW to see good precipitation all the way out near BUF and western PA.  Just a massive area of WAA forcing lifting into Northeast...no QPF fears in these as opposed to those winter storms where precip is struggling to get west of NYC-PHL.

 

june_27_zpsnyloapya.gif

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

We probably do, but we never hear about it like BTV does. Not enough population impacted I guess.

 

Yeah...BTV's got the western slope suburbs in Chittenden County stretching down into the RUT area with KRUT ASOS in a perfect spot to sample those winds.  Even down in ALY's area you have Bennington/Manchester/DDH populations. 

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