June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[CoastalWx]

Good luck to those tanning tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

Should be two maxes. One near triple point I think somewhere in ern MA. Other perhaps Berks, but that will be interesting to see. Sometimes convection east can rob some moisture. Either way lots of rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wintery appeal

[backedgeapproaching]

Very healthy looking precip sheild in mid atl/ OH Valley.

Like Hubb said, has that winter storm feel.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Not a bad day at all for a party

 

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. 1022 MB HIGH OVER

MAINE PROVIDING A COOL MORNING HERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CIRCUS CLOUDS RAPIDLY ADVANCING INTO WESTERN
MA/CT. HOWEVER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME DIM
SUNSHINE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 

[CoastalWx]

It's already cloudy. Hope pool is heated.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's already cloudy. Hope pool is heated.

Just high clouds. You can see sun clearly visible. Sun angle this year just burns thru mid and high level nonsense

[moneypitmike]

Think a lot of folks that though it was cox ks with dry undies all summer..are going to realize come next week that though it may not be a hot summer... it may be a summer remembered for it's humidity and baby powder/extra rolls of TP instead

 

You are so funny--grasping for straws.

 

 

Just a gorgeous morning here in the mid-coast.  A great couple of days up here, heading back to the Pit today.  What's the thought on a secondary max out in GC?  I'm thinking it may exist a bit west of me in higher els and into the greens.  Either way, it's another great start to the day. 

[sfenn1117]

Looks gray and cool to me. I think we get wet by early afternoon.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks gray and cool to me. I think we get wet by early afternoon.

Nothing gets rain in here until after 5:00

[sfenn1117]

Nothing gets rain in here until after 5:00

Light rain in NYC already. The brunt comes in later this evening and overnight, but I can see some drizzle and light rain kicking off earlier than models are showing - like last Saturday.

[dmillz25]

Light rain in NYC already. The brunt comes in later this evening and overnight, but I can see some drizzle and light rain kicking off earlier than models are showing - like last Saturday.

Yeah just started to rain here about 10 mins ago

[Damage In Tolland]

Light rain in NYC already. The brunt comes in later this evening and overnight, but I can see some drizzle and light rain kicking off earlier than models are showing - like last Saturday.

Models all had that. They show it hitting the dry air/retreating high and just hitting a wall. 5:00 on for NE CT..earlier sw 

[Damage In Tolland]

HOWEVER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE ABLE

TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME DIM
SUNSHINE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ENTERING WESTERN CT/MA AFTER 21Z/5PM.

[powderfreak]

Very healthy looking precip sheild in mid atl/ OH Valley.

Like Hubb said, has that winter storm feel.

Sent from my SM-N910V

 

BTV concurs with the Winter-like set-up...H85 SE Jet is 4 SD above normal apparently.

 

Backedgeapproaching...I think you are in a SE downslope wind zone, may get gusty for a while!

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE

WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER

VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,

AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF

50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I

MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW

LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT

EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL

TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z

MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE

EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL

OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY.

 

IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET

WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES

OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF

CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN

ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN

CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,

AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST

RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS

THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO

45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.

[OceanStWx]

BTV concurs with the Winter-like set-up...H85 SE Jet is 4 SD above normal apparently.

 

Backedgeapproaching...I think you are in a SE downslope wind zone, may get gusty for a while!

 

Actually seeing the 06z GEFS between -5 and -6 SD, and NAEFS giving a raw value of -4.9 at 850 mb (and 1000 mb right at the coastline).

[Damage In Tolland]

BTV concurs with the Winter-like set-up...H85 SE Jet is 4 SD above normal apparently.

 

Backedgeapproaching...I think you are in a SE downslope wind zone, may get gusty for a while!

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WET AND WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE

WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER

VALLEY THIS MORNING TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,

AND ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUNDAY TO THE BAY OF FUNDY BY 12Z MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET OF

50 TO 60 KNOTS ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I

MENTION THE JET IS ANONYMOUSLY STRONG AS THE LATEST NAEFS GEFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE IS 4 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS KIND OF LOW

LEVEL JET IS SOMETHING WE SEE MORE IN A WINTER-TYPE STORM, NOT

EARLY SUMMER! GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS, WE EXPECT RAINFALL

TO BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY TOPOGRAPHY WITH BASIN AVERAGES BY 12Z

MONDAY FROM 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OVER 2" OVER PORTIONS OF THE

EASTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH HEAVIEST AND RAINFALL

OCCURRING FROM 02-16Z SUNDAY.

 

IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET

WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES

OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. OUR TRUSTY LOCAL 4KM WRF

CONTINUES TO SHOW A 925MB JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FOCUSED ON EASTERN

ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EASTERN

CHITTENDEN. BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS,

AS THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST

RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY EXISTS ACROSS

THESE ZONES, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MIXING CAP MAX GUSTS TO

45 MPH AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.

Yeah he'll have some tree damage and power outages

[dendrite]

Light rain in NYC already. The brunt comes in later this evening and overnight, but I can see some drizzle and light rain kicking off earlier than models are showing - like last Saturday.

The precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet.

[sfenn1117]

The precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet.

The sun is visible through the clouds - never a good sign for big accumulations.

[weathafella]

The sun is visible through the clouds - never a good sign for big accumulations.

I dunno man...its kind of a snow sky here....the dog is pumped!

[weathafella]

Big pool day in tolland today? Timing blows. Children swim, adults read in thickening clouds and sweats.

[dendrite]

NAM/SREFs pound up here. I guess we toss like winter?

[Nittany88]

Actually seeing the 06z GEFS between -5 and -6 SD, and NAEFS giving a raw value of -4.9 at 850 mb (and 1000 mb right at the coastline).

 

Yeah I saw yesterday evening that it was -5 SD and actually outside of the 30 year climatology for this 3 week period!

[Typhoon Tip]

Like I said back in March ... this summer, in some semblance of last year's summer ... will at times mimic a "relaxed" version of the winter, just super-imposed over the warm season.

 

Anyone wanna argue?   ..Personally I think the system is f*ed and it's all a sign that things are very bad.  Deathly heat waves are above normal all over the planet, and Biologists from veracious think tanks warn of in situ mass extinction event on-going.  Meanwhile we indulge in a seemingly harmless set up that offers delusional escape from the perils of dreaded S.A.D. afflicted summer ... time after time after un-ceasing time/event.  

 

This has all been wrong, perhaps more dreadfully so than gossamer moment of the wind is capable of conveying. I guess it'll take macro-crop failures, pandemic plagues, and sea rises that engulf entire island nations ... displacing a third to one half of the mainland populations of the planet before some veracity is absorbed in matters, and actionable measures are taken??   ...The latter seems logistically impossible for a few reasons..

 

At least the Pope of all people sees the doom in the thing.  I laughed my arse off when I heard him quoted as saying the Earth has "...Turned into an immense pile of filth".  I mean like, wow!  One helluva indictment not just from some ranting jamoke  - that's the friggin pope?  ...I'm not religious. Just sayin'  One of the most influential people on the planet is warning about environmental catastrophe(s), one of the world's great if not greatest religious magnates is not deluding himself into thinking this is God's plan, and that faith will stop the freight train.   

 

Be that as it may, longer range teleconnectors are less useful during the summer ...due to enhanced stochastics/shorter wave lengths mucking with correlations blah blah blah we all know that.  I still feel that despite that loss of coherency, there is yet some use (just not zero use) in the NAO's recent tendency to relax toward neutral, and a PNA that is falling (talking D10 -ish so don't panic...).  A few members actually now reverse these toward July 10.  Very early cue at best for now... we'll see if it gathers momentum/members/consistency.  But when the weight of the ensembles begin to suggest something, then the operational depictions bend their character toward that weight, I get interested.  The Euro's abandoning the eastern plaguing trough anomaly may just have legs.  GFS for that matter ...is interesting because it kind of opts to lift the odd-ball out-of-whack SPV that's whirling over JB ...N enough to bring the 582 and 588 DM contours clear to our latitude. This gives the "false impression" of a cool pattern because of the curvi-linear layout of matters looks like January; but if we focus on the satanic details, that's the 582 DM height contour N of our latitude -- you're talking above normal dailies with thunderstorm chances in the means.  

 

Anyway, just some subtle signals for now that summer 2015 may have a fashionably late appearance.  

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I saw yesterday evening that it was -5 SD and actually outside of the 30 year climatology for this 3 week period!

 

It seems just about every parameter is either min or max percentile or outside the climatology as you say. Should be a rather extreme event in a relative sense.

 

Also looking like a decent downslope wind potential to pair with the upslope rain enhancement.

[CT Rain]

I don't really see this - doesn't look similar to the typical high shear/low cape events IMO. Anyone think otherwise?

 

* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SUNDAY MORNING . THIS PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OTHER
TROPICAL-LIKE PATTERNS THAT HAVE YIELDED QUICK SPIN-UP OR
LOCALIZED SVR WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
IS IF THE WARM SECTOR /TRIPLE POINT WILL GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SW WINDS ALOFT...COULD
YIELD 50-60 KTS OF SHEAR. ANTICIPATE LOW LCL DUE TO THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS. SO THE MOISTURE..SHEAR AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH...BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE INSTABILITY FACTOR. GFS IS
THE ONLY PIECE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING DESCENT MUCAPE...WHICH IS A
FLAG. HOWEVER IS DEWPOINTS INCREASE...OR IF CLDS BREAK OUT ENOUGH
THIS WE COULD GET MORE INSTABILITY THEN GUIDANCE SUGGEST. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[CT Rain]

Wow - NAEFS spitting out a 5.1 sigma UV anomaly at 850 hpa! 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wow - NAEFS spitting out a 5.1 sigma UV anomaly at 850 hpa!

What does that mean in terms of sensible wx?

[CT Rain]

What does that mean in terms of sensible wx?

 

Someone's getting a lot of rain. 

[OceanStWx]

I don't really see this - doesn't look similar to the typical high shear/low cape events IMO. Anyone think otherwise?

 

I mean I might agree if we could really and truly get the warm sector much into SNE, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the case. SREF keep the best environment along and south of Long Island.

 

Close enough that we don't completely write off watching the radar, but not so close that I would be hitting it too heavily in the forecast.