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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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The bottom line is Monday and Tuesday look a lot more like "summer" than we've been seeing.

 

Even up here our hottest temperature this month so far has been 81F, and Tuesday afternoon may top that. 

 

But Tuesday afternoon the NAM is showing spot 90F temps near ALB and in the CT Valley, with general mid-80s throughout SNE.

 

Its just one model but most are showing Tuesday to be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while.  It doesn't stick around luckily, but I'm with Blizz that Tuesday will feel quite warm given the recent airmasses.

 

 

 

 

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The bottom line is Monday and Tuesday look a lot more like "summer" than we've been seeing.

 

Even up here our hottest temperature this month so far has been 81F, and Tuesday afternoon may top that. 

 

But Tuesday afternoon the NAM is showing spot 90F temps near ALB and in the CT Valley, with general mid-80s throughout SNE.

 

Its just one model but most are showing Tuesday to be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while.  It doesn't stick around luckily, but I'm with Blizz that Tuesday will feel quite warm given the recent airmasses.

 

attachicon.gifNAM.jpg

Euro has us in 100% cloud cover all day Tuesday, hence the huge temp difference. Check it out

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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GFS Mos is nowhere near 90 for ALB

   
  
                                                                      
 KALB   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/20/2015  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  68  83| 66  84| 63  82| 63  80| 57  80| 55  74| 57  72| 57 57 80
 TMP  70  79| 71  77| 68  75| 68  74| 64  72| 62  68| 60  66| 63      
 DPT  65  67| 62  61| 61  65| 58  56| 53  50| 52  53| 53  57| 55      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   8   9|  9  12| 10  19| 17  13| 12   8|  5  27|  7   8|  9      
 P12  94  76| 46  21|  6  49| 21  20| 16  12| 24  40| 64  41| 35 25 24
 P24      94|     46|     49|     21|     20|     52|     71|       39
 Q12   5   3|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|       |         
 Q24       5|      1|      1|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12  22  62| 35   1|  1  44| 10   0|  3   8|  3  17| 19  22| 12      
 T24        | 75    |  9    | 44    |  7    | 11    | 24    | 23
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The bottom line is Monday and Tuesday look a lot more like "summer" than we've been seeing.

 

Even up here our hottest temperature this month so far has been 81F, and Tuesday afternoon may top that. 

 

But Tuesday afternoon the NAM is showing spot 90F temps near ALB and in the CT Valley, with general mid-80s throughout SNE.

 

Its just one model but most are showing Tuesday to be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while.  It doesn't stick around luckily, but I'm with Blizz that Tuesday will feel quite warm given the recent airmasses.

 

attachicon.gifNAM.jpg

KMVL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/20/2015  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  61  79| 62  77| 57  79| 57  74| 50  72| 46  76| 52  71| 50 51 76
 TMP  67  72| 66  69| 63  71| 64  66| 57  63| 55  67| 57  63| 57      
 DPT  62  66| 61  58| 57  64| 55  53| 50  48| 49  52| 53  55| 53      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| PC  CL| CL  OV| CL  OV| OV      
 WND   4   3|  5   8|  3  11| 11  11|  6   9|  1   6|  4   4|  3      
 P12  81  92| 73  21| 14  57| 38  26| 29  15| 13  25| 26  34| 26999999
 P24      92|     81|     71|     57|     35|     25|     50|      999
 Q12   2   4|  2   0|  0   2|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       4|      2|      3|      1|      0|      0|       |         
 T12  21  65| 60   7|  1  38| 12  19| 17   5|  5   9| 10  16| 12      
 T24        | 79    | 15    | 38    | 28    |  9    | 13    | 25
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The bottom line is Monday and Tuesday look a lot more like "summer" than we've been seeing.

 

Even up here our hottest temperature this month so far has been 81F, and Tuesday afternoon may top that. 

 

But Tuesday afternoon the NAM is showing spot 90F temps near ALB and in the CT Valley, with general mid-80s throughout SNE.

 

Its just one model but most are showing Tuesday to be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while.  It doesn't stick around luckily, but I'm with Blizz that Tuesday will feel quite warm given the recent airmasses.

 

attachicon.gifNAM.jpg

 

There's actually a climatological bases for warm periods surrounding tropical translations/transports into higher latitudes.  Sometimes the stay is shorter than others depending upon the synoptic set up and the progression of house -cleaner fropas and so forth, but given to what's at large in present era ... Bill's toting along a warm theta-e rich plume and leaves it in place after exit with no discerned boundary until later in the week.  

 

It fits.. I remember when Gloria went up over western LI back in 85?   ...yeah, the air mass felt a Bahama island the rest of the night afterward into the following day.  Then of course, a near frost air mass arrived with no power - eek. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

 

GFS Mos is nowhere near 90 for ALB

   
  
                                                                      
 KALB   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/20/2015  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  68  83| 66  84| 63  82| 63  80| 57  80| 55  74| 57  72| 57 57 80
 TMP  70  79| 71  77| 68  75| 68  74| 64  72| 62  68| 60  66| 63      
 DPT  65  67| 62  61| 61  65| 58  56| 53  50| 52  53| 53  57| 55      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   8   9|  9  12| 10  19| 17  13| 12   8|  5  27|  7   8|  9      
 P12  94  76| 46  21|  6  49| 21  20| 16  12| 24  40| 64  41| 35 25 24
 P24      94|     46|     49|     21|     20|     52|     71|       39
 Q12   5   3|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|       |         
 Q24       5|      1|      1|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12  22  62| 35   1|  1  44| 10   0|  3   8|  3  17| 19  22| 12      
 T24        | 75    |  9    | 44    |  7    | 11    | 24    | 23

 

Oh Ginxy...you say you love heat in the summer but always find ways to make the case for the "colder" solution ;)

 

Anyway, GFS MOS is mid/upper 80s for stations in CT on Monday and Tuesday, with dews ranging from near 70F on Sunday to mid-60s Monday and Tuesday.  Say IJD...Monday is 87/68 for a high/low.  That's summery if you are struggling to drop below 70 at night.

 

I just think with the tropical entity around, its going to feel more like summer than it has since May, and there's the possibility of it busting warm with that airmass associated with Bill.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

There's actually a climatological bases for warm periods surrounding tropical translations/transports into higher latitudes.  Sometimes the stay is shorter than others depending upon the synoptic set up and the progression of house -cleaner fropas and so forth, but given to what's at large in present era ... Bill's toting along a warm theta-e rich plume and leaves it in place after exit with no discerned boundary until later in the week.  

 

It fits.. I remember when Gloria went up over western LI back in 85?   ...yeah, the air mass felt a Bahama island the rest of the night afterward into the following day.  Then of course, a near frost air mass arrived with no power - eek. 

 

This is what I'm thinking...but you put it in words.  Its a tropical origin airmass moving in for a day or two.  Its not high heat or anything but I think folks will notice a change towards a more summary airmass for a couple days.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

This is what I'm thinking...but you put it in words.  Its a tropical origin airmass moving in for a day or two.  Its not high heat or anything but I think folks will notice a change towards a more summary airmass for a couple days.

Yeah..that's a nice way to put it. An above normal, sticky feeling airmass for 2 days with uncomfortable nights and chance at some high end severe if things break right..After that back to misery

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Oh Ginxy...you say you love heat in the summer but always find ways to make the case for the "colder" solution ;)

Anyway, GFS MOS is mid/upper 80s for stations in CT on Monday and Tuesday, with dews ranging from near 70F on Sunday to mid-60s Monday and Tuesday. Say IJD...Monday is 87/68 for a high/low. That's summery if you are struggling to drop below 70 at night.

I just think with the tropical entity around, its going to feel more like summer than it has since May, and there's the possibility of it busting warm with that airmass associated with Bill.

?? No mention of Euro solution
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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Posted

PF , tomorrow afternoon should be the Hot stuff in the West, Monday mid 80 DSD, just because I disagreed with you going all in with the NAM for Tues does not mean I am looking for cold, just pointing out alternative outcomes

 

I'm just ribbin' ya cause its been said before...haha.  I appreciate the devil's advocate angle, makes for better discussion.  May have to fire up the AC if the dews get up there.  To me that'll be the more "summery feel" of Sun-Tue, some dews above 60 and maybe nearing 70F for a time tomorrow evening? 

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

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Posted

.88 now and pouring. Happy fathers day to all the Dad's here. Kudos to all of you for being positive role models and helping to shape our future.

Same to you and all the guys. I'm enjoying my breakfast in bed and kids jumping on me and giving me their hand made cards and gifts. One of my kids framed a picture they made of me with a button recording their voice, I love my Dad, he's super cool and the best Dad in the world". Brought a big smile to my face.

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