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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Keep in mind folks ... the base-line/rest state is a positive anomaly by some decimal values > 0 SD;  that's just in keeping with warming climate.  

 

Which is to say, it is more difficult to keep the temperature at normal than it is to verify it slightly above -- again, as the rest state. Obviously intra-weekly events off-set this one way or the other, depending on their relative in situ magnitude/departures and so forth.  But in the absence of a warm and cool source to do so, you are above normal by some small value.  

 

Right now ... to me this just looks like a buckled up pain in the arse era of enhanced uncertainty, and thus ...stochastic bs by the models.  Hopefully it all irons out to some semblance of tentative predictability...

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dendrite

dendrite

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My P&C forecast has a low of 32 Tuesday night.  Is GYX trying to kill me?

Seems a little optimistic given the clouds. We could see some breaks after midnight, but I'd think we'd fog out before getting that deep into the 30s. Not sure if Chris is on short term still...maybe he can shed some light.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I almost feel shamelessly vindicated ...  

 

My ideas for the summer pattern really didn't include much of what took place over the last 10 days of May, with that "fake" Bermuda ridge pumping in 80s/60s... 

 

It was a predominated by western heights and a kind of vestigial plague of winter ...or perhaps the winter pattern summer-dimmed. Perpetuating negative anomalies as the preferred spread.  Kind of like last summer actually..

 

So, seeing this in the models now sort of hearkens to that... Perhaps the persistence mode is just resurfacing?   

 

Of course, the quickest way to ensure India's heat now coming to eastern N/A is to open my big mouth about it, so you may as well go ahead now and forecast the apocalypse.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I almost feel shamelessly vindicated ...  

 

My ideas for the summer pattern really didn't include much of what took place over the last 10 days of May, with that "fake" Bermuda ridge pumping in 80s/60s... 

 

It was a predominated by western heights and a kind of vestigial plague of winter ...or perhaps the winter pattern summer-dimmed. Perpetuating negative anomalies as the preferred spread.  Kind of like last summer actually..

 

So, seeing this in the models now sort of hearkens to that... Perhaps the persistence mode is just resurfacing?   

 

Of course, the quickest way to ensure India's heat now coming to eastern N/A is to open my big mouth about it, so you may as well go ahead now and forecast the apocalypse.  

 

With the ridging out west and into the Plains, we trough it out in the east. Of course this may mean a mix of SW boundary winds with dews near 70, and also waves of low pressure passing south....tough to determine the dailies this far out obviously.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

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Tomorrow morning will be Boston's 3rd day this month with a low temperature below 50°. FWIW, the last time that occurred was in June 1997 when a strong El Niño was rapidly developing. June 1997 had 5 such days. If, in fact, the El Niño is increasingly influencing the pattern, the summer might actually wind up cooler than normal. It will be interesting to see where things stand at the end of this month.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Tomorrow morning will be Boston's 3rd day this month with a low temperature below 50°. FWIW, the last time that occurred was in June 1997 when a strong El Niño was rapidly developing. June 1997 had 5 such days. If, in fact, the El Niño is increasingly influencing the pattern, the summer might actually wind up cooler than normal. It will be interesting to see where things stand at the end of this month.

yes climo summers in Nino years in NE tend to run cooler per correlations
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Continued troughing in the east. Going back 10 days ago, the smoothed out means were warmer than what is expected this week..but a weak signal was there for cooler weather. If you apply the same logic going forward, seems like that is the case too...although we may have 1 or 2 instances of much warmer weather.  

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dendrite

dendrite

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I assume Boston has (or very soon will) hit 50. I wonder how many days in June, July or August Boston has not cracked 50?

Anyone know where I could research this?

BOS had 1 record low max in the 40s before this so these past 2 days now make it 3x.
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