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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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Some real soaking 12z runs with Bill. Drought threat cancel.

Another bump or two north from the globals would be nice. The GFS has the max axis running from PSF to PSM...GGEM is BDR to PWM. NAM/SREFs are pretty far south over the S coast. 0z Euro was BDR to LWM/PSM.

It looks like it's lined up right over central OH right now which appears to be a bit north of where the models had the max QPF axes.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Some real soaking 12z runs with Bill. Drought threat cancel.

Another bump or two north from the globals would be nice. The GFS has the max axis running from PSF to PSM...GGEM is BDR to PWM. NAM/SREFs are pretty far south over the S coast. 0z Euro was BDR to LWM/PSM.

It looks like it's lined up right over central OH right now which appears to be a bit north of where the models had the max QPF axes.

Thanks Brian.  We have been making some small progress with the drought.  Still not enough to keep my pond from falling daily.  Let us know what the 12Z Euro has to say.  Really would like another bump or two north for us in Central NH

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

euro crushes Pike south

 

Hopefully some good rains incoming for the drought stricken areas.

 

We are all set for now up here with over 8" this month in town and 11" up on the mountain. 

 

Where ever the core of the remnant moisture passes over though is looking good for a quick 2-3" of rainfall.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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The 12z Euro tracks Bill and the heavy overrunning rains right across the area from west to east.

It  has mid to upper 80's behind the storm as we get breaks of sun in the afternoon. So the Euro

track is further south than the GFS. It also has readings above 90 on Tuesday with a potential

severe SE storm motion event dropping down from the north.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Probably a pretty good chance of urban flooding with that as the models seem to be indicating fairly widespread 1-1.5"+ amounts falling in 3 hours as it moves through.  You can't throw 3 straight hours of heavy 0.5" rainfall down on urban areas and not have some issues.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

The 12z Euro tracks Bill and the heavy overrunning rains right across the area from west to east.

It  has mid to upper 80's behind the storm as we get breaks of sun in the afternoon. So the Euro

track is further south than the GFS. It also has readings above 90 on Tuesday with a potential

severe SE storm motion event dropping down from the north.

Glad we don't live there.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well if the low is more developed with frontogenic features, it will throw rain further north. Like many warm systems that aren't developed, globals can be too far north with rain and the heaviest rain falls with the better low level forcing. You might get some of both here. Haven't looked at the 12z stuff much, but those are the two options.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I get the same joy watching Kevin freak out at cooler wx in the summer as I do with a lakes cutter in the winter. It's the best. Just enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

Monday and Tuesday don't look warm and humid to you? I know you are on vacation and missed the rain falling in Ct now earlier..but even to the layman..Mon-Tues has a summery look

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Monday and Tuesday don't look warm and humid to you? I know you are on vacation and missed the rain falling in Ct now earlier..but even to the layman..Mon-Tues has a summery look

83/58 and 82/61 aren't bad. Hopefully its sunny, Mon with NW winds looks like  winner COC day, Tuesday clouds up around noon and is more humid with a passing shower. Pretty normal stuff with above normal temps

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Monday and Tuesday don't look warm and humid to you? I know you are on vacation and missed the rain falling in Ct now earlier..but even to the layman..Mon-Tues has a summery look

A shower? That was possible. I don't know image Steve posted, but that wasn't warm looking. GFS was warm both Monday and Tuesday. Didn't see euro.

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