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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

That's south too. We live in New England. Man went south too. Euro south. Father's Day salvaged other than few showers it seems

I wouldn't say that's exactly nice.    But it's better than an all day rain.  No horse in the race, I'll be down at the S NJ shore, where I'm on the other end, too far south, so we'll likely squeeze out an ok day

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sfenn1117

sfenn1117

Posted
Posted

That's south too. We live in New England. Man went south too. Euro south. Father's Day salvaged other than few showers it seems

I think a few showers or an all out deluge are both equal possibilities at this point. It's still fluctuating each run.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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the gfs shifted everything north next week. less of a summer hiatus for some

 

yeah ... one thing folks in general should remember is that Bill and his remnants are of tropical origin; they will be toting along some impressive thickness plume...  

 

Some are siting the NAM; well, look at ALB at 60 hours, with a 575dm thickness and a T1 soaring to 27C -- about 31C at the 2-meter. That's 88'ish with a DP probably in the 70s... Quite torrid. 

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
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yeah ... one thing folks in general should remember is that Bill and his remnants are of tropical origin; they will be toting along some impressive thickness plume...  

 

Some are siting the NAM; well, look at ALB at 60 hours, with a 575dm thickness and a T1 soaring to 27C -- about 31C at the 2-meter. That's 88'ish with a DP probably in the 70s... Quite torrid. 

 

bill's remnants have a domino effect on how the -nao develops and everything else that follows. all these short term swings lead to long term swings

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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Not paying attention to convective bullseye nonsense. Again we live in New England. Not Central Jersey where you are

I don't live in Central NJ but that's besides the point. There will undoubtedly be a large cut off on both the Northern and Southern periphery's of the rain shield, however I think it's pretty stupid at this range to rule any scenario off the table with the constant flip flopping that we've seen. 

 

I would much rather Bill stay where it is now and get in on the heavy rains rather than go North and soak New England. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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No...that's not what we're saying at all -  jeez. 

 

Bill's toting along warm thickness plume, does not = eternally warm for the rest of the month. 

 

Not sure where that interpretation comes from.  

 

In fact, ...actually read what Forky said ... It probably delivers a latent heat flux into the NAO domain, such preponderant blocking gets a positive feedback and gets even more blocking... That tips the flow NW aloft and we get cool that way.  

 

Definitely in the realm of possibilities... 

 

Also, even if that doesn't happen, it's 12 hours of warm in that plume, after which the flow backs around to the NW and evacuates the heat out anyway.   

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