June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[Ginx snewx]

 

Maybe one day of big heat next week? Signal has been there on and off

 

 

maybe but the GFS op is alone on that

[Ginx snewx]

The key to remember is that Kevin never actually looks at models...he just parrots analysis he reads on Twitter or these forums. Once you understand that, you know why he is outdated.

thats untrue, maybe he didn't see the overnights

[IsentropicLift]

 

Maybe one day of big heat next week? Signal has been there on and off

 

 

Low 90's in late June is now considered to be big heat?

[Ginx snewx]

Low 90's in late June is now considered to be big heat?

yes it is in our hood very much so, average high is only 76

[CoastalWx]

I thought only yesterday the gfs was "wrong as usual?"

[nzucker]

yes it is in our hood very much so, average high is only 76

On June 22, the average high is only 76 in both the BOS suburbs and the Connecticut valleys? That seems low, no?

[Ginx snewx]

On June 22, the average high is only 76 in both the BOS suburbs and the Connecticut valleys? That seems low, no?

76-78 in our hood

[tamarack]

What did you have in 2001? That was the HIE year with a 31F.

 

Had 33 on 6/1/2001.  My coldest June temp is 28 on 6/4/02.  I've also recorded 31 in 2003 and 32 four times, 1998, 2004 (twice) and 2007.  The 34 on 6/7 this year ties 6/1/14 as my coolest for the month since 2007.  June 2006 only got down to 46, while all other years had sub-40 minima.  Median minimum for June here is 36.

[IsentropicLift]

yes it is in our hood very much so, average high is only 76

I think the highest the average high gets in NYC is 84 degrees but nobody would even flinch if we hit the lower 90's this time of year.

[Ginx snewx]

Boston

[Ginx snewx]

I think the highest the average high gets in NYC is 84 degrees but nobody would even flinch if we hit the lower 90's this time of year.

why we don't live there

[tamarack]

When you have like 20 top ten days you know its been great. halfway point.  If I was a HHH lover I'd be in the SE, but yea no thanks. I will take fresh clean polar air with temps near 80 all day every day in the summer. Makes everyone happy and work easier, get your tan on.

Bos -3.4

Pvd -1.8

BDR -1.0

ORH -0.6

BDL -0.2

 

Farther NE:

 

CAR  -1.6

BGR  -3.1

PWM  -1.5

CON  -0.4

 

06z gfs pops Augusta up to 85 on Monday, with no other 80s for the 16-day.  I'm not sure I believe either of those statements, but the trend seems to be for N to slightly AN thru 6/30, so CON would look to be the only one of the above 4 with a decent shot at N or above.

[IsentropicLift]

why we don't live there

I don't live there either. The point being that just because the average high in Boston is 78 degrees or so doesn't mean that a high in the lower 90's is remarkable. In fact I would argue that number is probably negatively skewed because of Boston's tendency to get backdoored. 

 

I'm going up to Fenway for a Yankees, Red Sox game second weekend in July. Never been before and looking forward to it. Any tips or suggestions? Leaving the Yankee gear at home

[dendrite]

Had 33 on 6/1/2001. My coldest June temp is 28 on 6/4/02. I've also recorded 31 in 2003 and 32 four times, 1998, 2004 (twice) and 2007. The 34 on 6/7 this year ties 6/1/14 as my coolest for the month since 2007. June 2006 only got down to 46, while all other years had sub-40 minima. Median minimum for June here is 36.

Sorry. Meant July...not June. 07/26/01-07/29/01 was that really cold stretch (at least min wise)

[Brian5671]

I don't live there either. The point being that just because the average high in Boston is 78 degrees or so doesn't mean that a high in the lower 90's is remarkable. In fact I would argue that number is probably negatively skewed because of Boston's tendency to get backdoored. 

 

I'm going up to Fenway for a Yankees, Red Sox game second weekend in July. Never been before and looking forward to it. Any tips or suggestions? Leaving the Yankee gear at home

hit the bars across from fenway pre-game-it's a festive scene. 

[TalcottWx]

hit the bars across from fenway pre-game-it's a festive scene. 

Landsdowne Pub, Cask N Flagon, Baseball Tavern probably my top 3 around Fenway.

[JC-CT]

 

Maybe one day of big heat next week? Signal has been there on and off

 

 

 

"GFS goes nutty next Monday w/ a day of heat. Not convinced this is reality. Model predicted temps have been horrible."

[Ginx snewx]

I don't live there either. The point being that just because the average high in Boston is 78 degrees or so doesn't mean that a high in the lower 90's is remarkable. In fact I would argue that number is probably negatively skewed because of Boston's tendency to get backdoored. 

 

I'm going up to Fenway for a Yankees, Red Sox game second weekend in July. Never been before and looking forward to it. Any tips or suggestions? Leaving the Yankee gear at home

why, lots of people wear their Yankee gear, nobody is going to attack you. I do, have fun Fenway is a great place to view a game as long as you have a skinny ass and are short, although the bleachers are better.

[CoastalWx]

You are going to be fine. Tons of Yankee fans there. Enjoy the game.

[Ginx snewx]

"GFS goes nutty next Monday w/ a day of heat. Not convinced this is reality. Model predicted temps have been horrible."

12z says meh

[ORH_wxman]

MOS is already spitting out 30s for Friday night for BML/HIE.

 

Impressive polar high for this time of year.

[CoastalWx]

Very repetitive pattern as of late. Looks to continue too. Heat dome west and high plains, lows/MCC moves SE into the Mid Atlantic. Stratiform rain and NE winds accompany that here. Goes away leaving great wx. Rinse and repeat.

[ORH_wxman]

Very repetitive pattern as of late. Looks to continue too. Heat dome west and high plains, lows/MCC moves SE into the Mid Atlantic. Stratiform rain and NE winds accompany that here. Goes away leaving great wx. Rinse and repeat.

 

 

Can't complain too much about the weather from a comfort standpoint (for most anyway). There will be an occasional cruddy day, but a ton of dry/low dew days with these polar highs sneaking over the top of us every few days.

[CoastalWx]

Can't complain too much about the weather from a comfort standpoint (for most anyway). There will be an occasional cruddy day, but a ton of dry/low dew days with these polar highs sneaking over the top of us every few days.

 

Yep, very nice. No complaints here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah..cold 50's stratiform rain events every 2-3 days are what everyone wants in the summer.. What happened to the stormy summer forecasts with a nino?

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah..cold 50's stratiform rain events every 2-3 days are what everyone wants in the summer.. What happened to the stormy summer forecasts with a nino?

I tried telling you several times that Nino climo was going to kick in, exactly what Scooter described above, beautiful low dew weather, a day of stratifrom rain with NE winds then rinse repeat. You insisted everyone was calling for a heat dome over us. I don't know your source but they got it wrong.

[Brian5671]

Yeah..cold 50's stratiform rain events every 2-3 days are what everyone wants in the summer.. What happened to the stormy summer forecasts with a nino?

it's turned a lot wetter this June compared to April and May...and looks more and more like a repeat of last summer's cooler weather with each passing day

[Damage In Tolland]

I tried telling you several times that Nino climo was going to kick in, exactly what Scooter described above, beautiful low dew weather, a day of stratifrom rain with NE winds then rinse repeat. You insisted everyone was calling for a heat dome over us. I don't know your source but they got it wrong.

I never said that. I said they were calling for AN summer which it appears we are heading towards away from the water. that doesn't have to mean heat dome..Just mostly a slightly AN pattern which is what we are currently in..   The cold rainy days blow...and I don't think anyone wants them. Thankfully none seem to be in our immediate future. I have a hard time believing these ideas that we don't see any humid days with storms this summer.

[ORH_wxman]

it's turned a lot wetter this June compared to April and May...and looks more and more like a repeat of last summer's cooler weather with each passing day

 

 

Drought concerns rising in CT....it hasn't rained in 2 days.

[Whineminster]

Yeah..cold 50's stratiform rain events every 2-3 days are what everyone wants in the summer.. What happened to the stormy summer forecasts with a nino?

 

Yeah not sure where people are coming from with this....I don't think people want two crappy cold rainy days every week and then a few beautiful days...I think most people would sacrifice that pattern for HHH and a few extra rolls of TP. 

 

As Wiz said a week ago or so, summer appears to be delayed...perhaps later in July and August is when real summer kicks-in, similar to this past Winter in that we had no snow for the early winter months....then real winter showed up abruptly and with force.