June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[CoastalWx]

Looks like HFD is -3.3 if I read it correctly. With 80-85 tomorrow thru weekend that should get up near normal by this time next week. Last week will determine fate

It's -0.3F. They have a chance to manage AN.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's -0.3F. They have a chance to manage AN.

oh yeah. That was a iPhone typo. This is kind of what I mean. Even last week you could look and kind of tell most interior places would get up into positive territory. Dew is 69 now. Feels awesome even if temporary

[Damage In Tolland]

Bos will be tougher . What are they?

[dendrite]

Had 39 on June 20, 2004, so would not be too unusual to approach that again at my cold-pocket microclimate.  I've even recorded 3 sub-40 mornings in July over 17 yr of records here.

What did you have in 2001? That was the HIE year with a 31F.

[CoastalWx]

Bos will be tougher . What are they?

-3.3F. They'll be below I think. This pattern just seems like lows and convection passing SW of us with cooler N flow in its wake. It will offer some warm days though. June has been great for the yard.

[Damage In Tolland]

-3.3F. They'll be below I think. This pattern just seems like lows and convection passing SW of us with cooler N flow in its wake. It will offer some warm days though. June has been great for the yard.

I still think Bill ends up passing NW of us around periphery of SE ridge. Or right over us anyway..So instead of all day rain Sunday we see warm front, dews, and pm storms/downpours

[Damage In Tolland]

I still think Bill ends up passing NW of us around periphery of SE ridge. Or right over us anyway..So instead of all day rain Sunday we see warm front, dews, and pm storms/downpours

Dan Leonard ‏@DanLeonard_wx  1h1 hour ago

ECM op is a father's day washout for NYC & BOS, but EPS says hold on a sec and sends Bill up the St. Lawrence. #hope

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I feel like the more classic correlations have not worked out at times lately.  The west still is warm, but pretty interesting to see the south so warm too. I was arguing against the soil moisture fetish people. Sure it may bring down temps for a time, but get some good srn Plains sun to cook that soil, and the soil won't stay that moist for long, if we do get 500mb ridging.

 

I've noticed this with increased frequency over the course of the last 10 to 15 years, actually...   

 

I have an idea why that is - 

[Ginx snewx]

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah it looks like the models want to do a Tip Sonoran heat Release into the middle of the country and then it gets crunched south as it tries to head east...so we miss out but the southeast gets it.

This is precisely true, Will --

I took a look at that and thought that's a helluva heat release that summarily dives a-NINO characteristically straight SE.  

 

Interesting...  

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah Bill going NW of SNE. LOL at these all day washout Father's Day forecasts. Take em north with pm showers/thunder and maybe an EML

[CoastalWx]

Bill is going over or likely south it seems of SNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

Bill is going over or likely south it seems of SNE.

Not according to ENS..still a lot of spread..I wouldn't be calling for washouts

[CT Valley Snowman]

Too early for a washout call. Afternoon showers and T'storms for now and monitor trends. Father's day golf and a planned outdoor party ( Which can be moved inside if necessary) on my side of the family so watching closely.

[CT Valley Snowman]

I opened a tropical thread after being awaken in the wee hours of the night. Hopefully it brings us good luck and something exciting to chase this summer/fall.

[CoastalWx]

Not according to ENS..still a lot of spread..I wouldn't be calling for washouts

 

LOL, ok. Thanks for the tip.

[CT Rain]

Not according to ENS..still a lot of spread..I wouldn't be calling for washouts

This is why people block you.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is why people block you.

Because I post what the ensembles show? Why?

[IsentropicLift]

Because I post what the ensembles show? Why?

00z shifted south. The mean looks like a washout.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not saying a washout, but it's not NW. 

[Ginx snewx]

I'm not saying a washout, but it's not NW. 

if anything it misses south, long ways off in summer weather forecasting.

[CT Rain]

Because I post what the ensembles show? Why?

 

Because you're not.

 

The new (and degraded) version of the KFS is the TFS. Twitter Forecast System. Meteotrade posted about yesterday's 12z Euro Ensembles and that's what you're basing this off of. However, the 00z Euro ensembles came out and showed a pretty big soaker for SNE on Sunday as everything trended south toward yesterday's op run. Since no one tweeted about the overnight ensembles you're left to post about outdated information. 

[Ginx snewx]

Because you're not.

 

The new (and degraded) version of the KFS is the TFS. Twitter Forecast System. Meteotrade posted about yesterday's 12z Euro Ensembles and that's what you're basing this off of. However, the 00z Euro ensembles came out and showed a pretty big soaker for SNE on Sunday as everything trended south toward yesterday's op run. Since no one tweeted about the overnight ensembles you're left to post about outdated information. 

Dew you feel like I dew? wow what a day

[CoastalWx]

I'm going to have to tell him how impactful his tweet was to Kevin.

[CT Rain]

Dew you feel like I dew? wow what a day

 

This has been one of the most remarkably beautiful stretches of weather this time of year I can remember. Just awesome. 

[Dan]

What a beautiful start to the day.

[Damage In Tolland]

Because you're not.

 

The new (and degraded) version of the KFS is the TFS. Twitter Forecast System. Meteotrade posted about yesterday's 12z Euro Ensembles and that's what you're basing this off of. However, the 00z Euro ensembles came out and showed a pretty big soaker for SNE on Sunday as everything trended south toward yesterday's op run. Since no one tweeted about the overnight ensembles you're left to post about outdated information. 

So just to get it out for public consumption..are you calling for a washout for Father's Day?

[Ginx snewx]

This has been one of the most remarkably beautiful stretches of weather this time of year I can remember. Just awesome. 

When you have like 20 top ten days you know its been great. halfway point.  If I was a HHH lover I'd be in the SE, but yea no thanks. I will take fresh clean polar air with temps near 80 all day every day in the summer. Makes everyone happy and work easier, get your tan on.

Bos -3.4

Pvd -1.8

BDR -1.0

ORH -0.6

BDL -0.2

[nzucker]

The key to remember is that Kevin never actually looks at models...he just parrots analysis he reads on Twitter or these forums. Once you understand that, you know why he is outdated.

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe one day of big heat next week? Signal has been there on and off