June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies keep the heat south too. We all win. 

[Damage In Tolland]

No big heat..but no big coc k either.. Some days of dews and warmth..some drys of dry and 80

[CoastalWx]

Looks like COC to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like COC to me.

Mix of both..back and forth we go

[Damage In Tolland]

I always thought summer ridging in the west meant the trough was in the center of the country..different than winter where it would be more centered in the Lakes and NE

[TalcottWx]

Scott hows fri to mon down the cape looking. Yesterday suggested cool at times.

[CoastalWx]

Mix of both..back and forth we go

 

Pretty much COC. Might even be  below.

[CoastalWx]

This is an interesting Nino in that the south is going to bake in the near future. Correlations and analogs fail.

[CoastalWx]

Scott hows fri to mon down the cape looking. Yesterday suggested cool at times.

Sunday and MOnday could be iffy perhaps with warmer SW winds Sunday and perhaps NE winds Monday.

[CoastalWx]

I mean those are very impressive temp gradient over the nrn tier heading into July. Almost gradient-like winter type stuff.

[ORH_wxman]

This is an interesting Nino in that the south is going to bake in the near future. Correlations and analogs fail.

 

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

[CoastalWx]

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

 

I feel like the more classic correlations have not worked out at times lately.  The west still is warm, but pretty interesting to see the south so warm too. I was arguing against the soil moisture fetish people. Sure it may bring down temps for a time, but get some good srn Plains sun to cook that soil, and the soil won't stay that moist for long, if we do get 500mb ridging.

[ORH_wxman]

I feel like the more classic correlations have not worked out at times lately.  The west still is warm, but pretty interesting to see the south so warm too. I was arguing against the soil moisture fetish people. Sure it may bring down temps for a time, but get some good srn Plains sun to cook that soil, and the soil won't stay that moist for long, if we do get 500mb ridging.

 

 

Yeah it looks like the models want to do a Tip Sonoran heat Release into the middle of the country and then it gets crunched south as it tries to head east...so we miss out but the southeast gets it.

[Dan]

Certainly many of you had said earlier on in the spring, that it was looking like a coolish summer...looks like that may hold true.

[tamarack]

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

 

Though that frigidity was based largely on incessant clouds and rain rather than CAA; for June 9-30 I had just one rain-free day, 9.76" precip, and temps averaged 65/52.  Not sure whether that weakens the point or strengthens it.

[dendrite]

GFS has 30s Sat AM up here. Doubt it happens, but that would be a hoot.

[Dan]

So much for the calls of HHH and AN last week for the next two weeks.  

[ORH_wxman]

GFS has 30s Sat AM up here. Doubt it happens, but that would be a hoot.

 

 

These highs are more like autumn than near the solstice in summer.

 

If we didn't have such short nights, you'd probably get 30s.

[Damage In Tolland]

So much for the calls of HHH and AN last week for the next two weeks.  

It looks normal to slightly above starting tomorrow..depending on the day. TS Bill is going to pump some heat and dews north to some degree this weekend into early next week. Extent TBD. GFS gonna be wrong as usual

[CoastalWx]

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

Congrats on the euro op. Days and days of BN.

[Damage In Tolland]

Good luck on 60's everyday

[Damage In Tolland]

Can someone please post where the big 4 are at MTD?

[CoastalWx]

Why does it have to be 60s?

[Damage In Tolland]

Why does it have to be 60s?

 

Why does it have to be 60s?

Go out on a limb..

 

Will big 4 finish above or below?

Simple question. I will say 3 out of 4 are AN

[tamarack]

These highs are more like autumn than near the solstice in summer.

 

If we didn't have such short nights, you'd probably get 30s.

 

Had 39 on June 20, 2004, so would not be too unusual to approach that again at my cold-pocket microclimate.  I've even recorded 3 sub-40 mornings in July over 17 yr of records here.

[Ginx snewx]

Go out on a limb..

Will big 4 finish above or below?

Simple question. I will say 3 out of 4 are AN

-2.1 here, about the same PVD Blue hill

[powderfreak]

+0.3 up here at MVL for the month so far.

-0.6 at BTV

-2.7 at MPV (It's really near normal as you generally add 2F to the MPV departures).

[Damage In Tolland]

-2.1 here, about the same PVD Blue hill

Looks like HFD is -3.3 if I read it correctly. With 80-85 tomorrow thru weekend that should get up near normal by this time next week. Last week will determine fate