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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

This is an interesting Nino in that the south is going to bake in the near future. Correlations and analogs fail.

 

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 4:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

 

I feel like the more classic correlations have not worked out at times lately.  The west still is warm, but pretty interesting to see the south so warm too. I was arguing against the soil moisture fetish people. Sure it may bring down temps for a time, but get some good srn Plains sun to cook that soil, and the soil won't stay that moist for long, if we do get 500mb ridging.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 5:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

I feel like the more classic correlations have not worked out at times lately.  The west still is warm, but pretty interesting to see the south so warm too. I was arguing against the soil moisture fetish people. Sure it may bring down temps for a time, but get some good srn Plains sun to cook that soil, and the soil won't stay that moist for long, if we do get 500mb ridging.

 

 

Yeah it looks like the models want to do a Tip Sonoran heat Release into the middle of the country and then it gets crunched south as it tries to head east...so we miss out but the southeast gets it.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 4:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That kind of happened in June 2009....the north was frigid and the southeast was a torch

 

Though that frigidity was based largely on incessant clouds and rain rather than CAA; for June 9-30 I had just one rain-free day, 9.76" precip, and temps averaged 65/52.  Not sure whether that weakens the point or strengthens it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 5:59 PM, dendrite said:

GFS has 30s Sat AM up here. Doubt it happens, but that would be a hoot.

 

 

These highs are more like autumn than near the solstice in summer.

 

If we didn't have such short nights, you'd probably get 30s. :lol:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 6:04 PM, Dan said:

So much for the calls of HHH and AN last week for the next two weeks.   :twister:

It looks normal to slightly above starting tomorrow..depending on the day. TS Bill is going to pump some heat and dews north to some degree this weekend into early next week. Extent TBD. GFS gonna be wrong as usual

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 6/16/2015 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

These highs are more like autumn than near the solstice in summer.

 

If we didn't have such short nights, you'd probably get 30s. :lol:

 

Had 39 on June 20, 2004, so would not be too unusual to approach that again at my cold-pocket microclimate.  I've even recorded 3 sub-40 mornings in July over 17 yr of records here.

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