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June gloom or glory? Pattern discussion moving into the first month of met summer

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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While we wart up later next week, the overall pattern IMHO doesn't scream big June heat to me. The ridge for now sets up in the Plains which will teleconnect to a trough over the east. You can see even on the mass fields, low pressure nearby with hints of a front near the coast and even south of New England. These setups are tough to get a feel for, but doesn't look hot to me through day 15 or so.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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While we wart up later next week, the overall pattern IMHO doesn't scream big June heat to me. The ridge for now sets up in the Plains which will teleconnect to a trough over the east. You can see even on the mass fields, low pressure nearby with hints of a front near the coast and even south of New England. These setups are tough to get a feel for, but doesn't look hot to me through day 15 or so.

witches?
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well with the weeklies and CFS all AN for us..I have a hard time seeing a cool pattern. What did today's Ens show?

 

Near normal or a bit above in the 11-15 day. It has the potential to bring some rain and/or convection too with trough nearby.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Pretty much what Gibbs was saying..more higher dew days..but also with that associated convection and AN temps..but no torch..Fine with me as long as the dews and storms are around overall

 

Could also have a few days like next week too with low to our south. Too early to give specifics.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Could also have a few days like next week too with low to our south. Too early to give specifics.

Well did you ever think we see the hottest May on record? I recall a post of yours end of April/early May saying you thought it would be s bit AN, but nothing extreme. But we smashed record warm May.. So you wonder maybe if June doesn't over perform too
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well did you ever think we see the hottest May on record? I recall a post of yours end of April/early May saying you thought it would be s bit AN, but nothing extreme. But we smashed record warm May.. So you wonder maybe if June doesn't over perform too

How many other places did that?

 

That's mainly because of no rain and onshore flow too. May is one of those tough months to gauge in New England.  This doesn't look like an overperforming pattern for June in terms of heat. Climo is warmer now too. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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How many other places did that?

That's mainly because of no rain and onshore flow too. May is one of those tough months to gauge in New England. This doesn't look like an overperforming pattern for June in terms of heat. Climo is warmer now too.

Basically I was given control of the wx in Feb and May. Extreme cold and snow and extreme heat and warmth. The only thing I was barred from controlling in May was rain/ convection. They gave that to Tip
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Nittany88

Nittany88

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How many other places did that?

 

That's mainly because of no rain and onshore flow too. May is one of those tough months to gauge in New England.  This doesn't look like an overperforming pattern for June in terms of heat. Climo is warmer now too. 

 

I'm betting most of the climate sites in the Northeast are at least Top 5 May, and a few warmest on record.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Euro with another big high building in next weekend.

 

Mentioned that yesterday and that it also had a similar appeal to what's going on now ...since, muted some. Now just the biggish high pressure.  Which, ...may also end up boasted over what really transpires...due to the Euro's tending to see features through a magnifying glass in that kind of time lead.  But, as Jerry mentioned, other guidance have semblance of it.

 

I think it all is more a function of a +PNAP pattern settling in over middle latitude North America for about a week's worth of time. Western heights appear slated to burgeon for a time, and we end up sending ripples of confluence down stream southern Canada as well as cyclonic generalized flow underneath in the GL/NE regions.  

 

It'd be a nice pattern a week before Xmass -- not so sure about June 7 when folks might have formulated their weather desires around a different culture of events... to put it nicely.  

 

But looking at this 12z Euro details.. interesting that it still manages a couple of days worth of +13C at 850's despite that cyclonic flow. Might mean convection, but certainly not necessarily a chilly result if/when the wind direction could ever cooperate.

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