ohleary Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 And helps with the TAFB TS Andres discussion: ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continuedto expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperaturescolder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also becomebetter organized with an increase in banding and a developingcentral dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB andTAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kttropical storm.The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to thesouth and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends fromsouth-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during thenext several days, and should cause Andres to movewest-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidancespread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models takingAndres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemblemaintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remainsnear the multi-model consensus for now.Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow forsteady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. Theupdated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification overthe next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclonewill be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induceweakening by the end of the forecast period.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH$Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Saw that and did a double take. Pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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