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June 2015 General Disco


snowlover2

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It's like a swamp in my back yard tonight. 74 degrees at midnight, dew point at 71, everything still drenched, no breeze whatsoever, water ponded all over. Bugs everywhere.

This must be what it's like to live in Louisiana.

That's pretty much how it was the entire Summer of 2011...

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Today was perfect weather, especially when coming off of 5 days with measurable rain! Mostly sunny with a high of 66°.

55°/45° currently. Looks to hit the upper 40s tonight.

 

16.29" of rain year to date.

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Overnight rainfall totals range from 0.67-0.91" among local LAF CoCoRaHS observers.

 

I was looking at model skill scores, and something has happened to the UKie. It's always been the 2nd best with 500H scores, but the past 30 days finds it behind the GFS and GGEM at day 6.  :fever:

 

 

And no wonder Hoosier humps the long range op GFS these days, as it has developed a nice warm bias...that gets worse further out in time. CFS is the "too torchiest" at the surface, despite a bit of a cool bias at 850.  :sizzle:

 

 

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Overnight rainfall totals range from 0.67-0.91" among local LAF CoCoRaHS observers.

 

I was looking at model skill scores, and something has happened to the UKie. It's always been the 2nd best with 500H scores, but the past 30 days finds it behind the GFS and GGEM at day 6.  :fever:

 

attachicon.gifcor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

And no wonder Hoosier humps the long range op GFS these days, as it has developed a nice warm bias...that gets worse further out in time. CFS is the "too torchiest" at the surface, despite a bit of a cool bias at 850.  :sizzle:

 

attachicon.gifbiasdieoff_T_P1000_G2NHX.png

 

attachicon.gifbiasdieoff_T_P850_G2NHX.png

 

 

lol...it's gonna get pretty warm if not downright hot...there's good model agreement on that.  Maybe it won't last too long but I'd be pretty surprised if LAF avoids the 90s this time.

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lol...it's gonna get pretty warm if not downright hot...there's good model agreement on that.  Maybe it won't last too long but I'd be pretty surprised if LAF avoids the 90s this time.

 

Admit man, you're just a hot/drought guy. The Joe Bastardi of summer.   :lol:

 

Anyways, I've got about 10 days left in the LAF. Hopefully we string together some fail 89's next week. :devilsmiley:  

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Admit man, you're just a hot/drought guy. The Joe Bastardi of summer.   :lol:

 

Anyways, I've got about 10 days left in the LAF. Hopefully we string together some fail 89's next week. :devilsmiley:  

 

 

I think it's more that I appreciate the extremes of any kind. 

 

The warmup could be held in check some given the wet/getting wetter ground here and upstream, but the progged ridge looks pretty potent. 

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Rainfall amounts this month are gonna look more like monthly snowfall amounts in the winter.

 

I could be in the middle of a drought and have more than my December '14 snowfall total. lol But you are right. At this rate, I'm shooting for double digits.

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Wow, that would be a shock to the system for this Hoosier. I'm happy for you though that you are in a fairly pristine wilderness and can enjoy a LOT of snow.

thanks man!  I love this place, and learning the subtleties of the climate here is a blast for me.  I don't like the heat, so the Summer weather here is perfect. I'm a sucker tho... laying by the stove, my eyes are droopy already and it's not even 9:30.

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Has the HRRR undergone any recent upgrades? Money in the bank with regard to timing/placement/intensity of convection the last 3 weeks.

 

The same with the RAP in fact. 

 

NAM in comparison developed 3000 J/KG of CAPE here today while the RAP only had just over 1000 J/KG with the better instability in IN/OH/IL. Guess which one was right?

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