Deck Pic Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/28/d-c-summer-outlook-2015-slightly-hotter-than-normal-but-not-brutal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Sounds good. It does seem like it would be difficult to super-torch with what is happening in the southern plains right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Sounds good to me. June is looking benign for the foreseeable future. d10-15 could be AOB is we get lucky. At least outside of DC anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The bottom of the article links the previous summer outlooks and their respective post-season evaluation. But non of the links for the pre-2013 summers seem to be working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Looks good..EPS, GEFS, and the NAEFS continue the very warm look going into June, with high geopotential heights dominating the region w/ flat streamflow above 50N and low heights in the NM/TX. That's a classic warm/humid pattern for DC. Definitely looking like a warm one so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Looks good..EPS, GEFS, and the NAEFS continue the very warm look going into June, with high geopotential heights dominating the region w/ flat streamflow above 50N and low heights in the NM/TX. That's a classic warm/humid pattern for DC. Definitely looking like a warm one so far. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 nice job Matt. Hard to imagine a mild August without some tropical activity. Seems like the summer dry season arrived early this year. I remain pretty steadfast in my expectation that June ends much more mild than May by comparison. This seems to align OK with your thinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 Thanks. I feel pretty good about not getting completely annihilated....July could be brutal, but perhaps a lot of 93/75 type days and not too many 96+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 read this outlook last week. i hope you are right about Jun and Aug. Nice job, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Man, IO forcing is going to be off the charts over next 10-15 days. Very odd to see dominating low frequency (MJO) forcing of any kind under a Niño base, let alone in the IO domain. There's your -PNA driver..thankfully it's not mid-July yet. Check out the filtered anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 It should be noted that strong MJO forcing is more common during El Niño events, not the other way around. Indeed, June 1997 had the highest June amplitude on record. The five highest June averages are: 1. 2.074, 1997 (May-June MEI: +2.314) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño 2. 1.880 2002 (May-June MEI: +0.882) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño 3. 1.640, 1979 (May-June MEI: +0.389) 4. 1.577, 1996 (May-June MEI: +0.022) 5. 1.575, 1986 (May-June MEI: +0.316) -- emergent El Niño or El Niño The data is as follows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Is that data filtered for CCKW activity and/or ENSO-associated antecedent convection? I'm pretty sure the MJO, by its technical definition, tends to be subdued during stronger ENSO events. Either way, rare to see it in the IO/Indonesian domain during a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Perhaps related to the warm pool in the West Pacific, which has been building steadily since 2007 and strengthened by the absence of El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I think that's a definite possibility. Warming in the IO relative to the PAC has altered the long term ENSO/Walker Cell relationship, FWIW. Anyhow, regarding sub-seasonal tropical forcing, I think that while those phase diagrams do a good job depicting tropical forcing in aggregate, they can be contaminated by CCKW activity and off-equator forcing. They don't necessarily isolate the MJO itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 I'll give myself a B/B+ June: +1 to +2 - Actual: +2.9 July: +2, Actual: +1.7 August: -1, Actual: +1.2 Overall: +1, Actual: +1.9 90 degree days: 28-34, Actual: 38 Longest 90 degree streak: 8-10 days, Actual: 13 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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