Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 It looks like the ridge north of Hawaii extending up through the Aleutians is building more strongly than the models had been suggesting. So don't be surprised if temperature expectations get revised higher for the rest of the month. This type of pattern teleconnects to a more -PNA and stronger ridging near the East. Looking more and more likely we don't see a June 09 pattern setting up. Maybe it was all compressed into that first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Yeah but I haven't had a legit severe thunderstorm since September 2010. Im kinda itching for one at this point. And actually i am one of the people who feel sympathy when you get shafted I've seen hail twice in the last five years. Both times it was below severe limits, but cool to see. I was also in South Jersey for the Mid-Atlantic derecho of 2010. Rode out the storm in an RV. You want to talk about scary? The RV didn't stop shaking for two and a half hours. We were surrounded by tall oak trees and to be honest we should have left. The next morning all power lines were down and tree damage was extensive. That's about the only time in my life that I've witnessed a legit severe thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Coastal folks should really be used to this by now. That's the price you pay for living near the ocean. I somehow doubt you will feel bad for me when I'm shafted yet again this Winter by a mega band that sets up over NYC/LI. NYC will see storms this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 I've seen hail twice in the last five years. Both times it was below severe limits, but cool to see. I was also in South Jersey for the Mid-Atlantic derecho of 2010. Rode out the storm in an RV. You want to talk about scary? The RV didn't stop shaking for two and a half hours. We were surrounded by tall oak trees and to be honest we should have left. The next morning all power lines were down and tree damage was extensive. That's about the only time in my life that I've witnessed a legit severe thunderstorm. That must have been insane. I was outside when the tornado/macroburst came through brooklyn and that was a hair raising experience. The loudest thunderclap i ever heard then all hell broke loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 NYC will see storms this evening. The RGEM has <0.10" for NYC and the Euro also showed barely anything reaching East of the GSP, but good luck, hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Looking more and more likely we don't see a June 09 pattern setting up. Maybe it was all compressed into that first week. The strength of that ridge near the Aleutians snuck up on the models like the cool down the first week of June did. So the YOYO pattern continues with historic Jan-Mar cold followed by an April transition to warm and record May warmth. Big cool down for the first week of June followed by a warm up. Very volatile H500 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The strength of that ridge near the Aleutians snuck up on the models like the cool down the first week of June did. So the YOYO pattern continues with historic Jan-Mar cold followed by an April transition to warm and record May warmth. Big cool down for the first week of June followed by a warm up. Very volatile H500 pattern. 1945 had a very cold January...A warm March and April...A very cool start to June...A very hot middle and ending to June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The RGEM has <0.10" for NYC and the Euro also showed barely anything reaching East of the GSP, but good luck, hopefully it works out. Good looking T-storm is currently over eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Good looking T-storm is currently over eastern LI. Nice, only 150 miles or so away from NYC and moving offshore. Despite mostly Sunny skies here, SBCAPE drops off dramatically in E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Coastal folks should really be used to this by now. That's the price you pay for living near the ocean. I somehow doubt you will feel bad for me when I'm shafted yet again this Winter by a mega band that sets up over NYC/LI. Out at the WSO Upton, the driest month of the year is July and the 3rd driest is June...so there is an element of truth to the idea that the water promotes stability and discourages the development of cumulonimbus clouds...its probably a bit wetter here in Port Jeff as unsettled weather has a tendency to gravitate to this spot...but I do not have a rain gauge to back up this contention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Out at the WSO Upton, the driest month of the year is July and the 3rd driest is June...so there is an element of truth to the idea that the water promotes stability and discourages the development of cumulonimbus clouds...its probably a bit wetter here in Port Jeff as unsettled weather has a tendency to gravitate to this spot...but I do not have a rain gauge to back up this contention... It's a stupid argument in my opinion because no area close to NYC experiences legit severe thunderstorms on a consistent basis. Like everything else around here weather related, it seems to go in cycles. I like to refer to Long Island as place that thunderstorms go to die, but yet again didn't you guys have baseball sized hail out there a few years ago? It just comes down to being in the right spot at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Nice, only 150 miles or so away from NYC and moving offshore. Despite mostly Sunny skies here, SBCAPE drops off dramatically in E PA. But it's only 134 miles from NYC to Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 1945 had a very cold January...A warm March and April...A very cool start to June...A very hot middle and ending to June... Quick changes with the El Nino/MJO this spring after the +PDO and modoki El Nino carried us through the winter. So it's no wonder it can take the models time to catch up with fast changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Instability values drop off pretty quick east of PA, so it will be tough to get anything severe east of the Delaware. I would expect isolated or scattered showers and weaker storms. Severe probabilities drop to practically zero east of Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Out at the WSO Upton, the driest month of the year is July and the 3rd driest is June...so there is an element of truth to the idea that the water promotes stability and discourages the development of cumulonimbus clouds...its probably a bit wetter here in Port Jeff as unsettled weather has a tendency to gravitate to this spot...but I do not have a rain gauge to back up this contention... Thats interesting to me...at this station, July is the wettest month, with a 30 year avg of 5.20" , by far my wettest month. What is the July avg out that way if you have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Temp really jumped here up to 84 degrees...no sea breeze yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 It's a stupid argument in my opinion because no area close to NYC experiences legit severe thunderstorms on a consistent basis. Like everything else around here weather related, it seems to go in cycles. I like to refer to Long Island as place that thunderstorms go to die, but yet again didn't you guys have baseball sized hail out there a few years ago? It just comes down to being in the right spot at the right time. Well I mean you are on the leeward side of a low mountain range besides having the water nearby...so all this works against the area...I think the wettest spots around here are in Morris & Passaic Counties...and probably up towards Candlewood Lake in Fairfield County (near Danbury). Long Island, being near the water, has wetter winters than the interior & drier summers...and generally follows the coastal precipitation pattern (dry sunny days, any t-storms generally move through after dark). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Radar is cranking out west. Someone in NW NJ looks to get smoked later with rain and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Thats interesting to me...at this station, July is the wettest month, with a 30 year avg of 5.20" , by far my wettest month. What is the July avg out that way if you have it? http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlyPrecip.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Instability values drop off pretty quick east of PA, so it will be tough to get anything severe east of the Delaware. I would expect isolated or scattered showers and weaker storms. Severe probabilities drop to practically zero east of Allentown. I think east of 81 in Pa it will start to drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The HRRR has numerous rain showers tonight and into tomorrow morning. Just nothing that would come close to supporting severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Well I mean you are on the leeward side of a low mountain range besides having the water nearby...so all this works against the area...I think the wettest spots around here are in Morris & Passaic Counties...and probably up towards Candlewood Lake in Fairfield County (near Danbury). Long Island, being near the water, has wetter winters than the interior & drier summers...and generally follows the coastal precipitation pattern (dry sunny days, any t-storms generally move through after dark). I am in extreme NE Morris County. Typically just far enough West to not be affected by the marine layer yet far enough East to cash in on coastal storms, unless of course the last few years become the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Instability values drop off pretty quick east of PA, so it will be tough to get anything severe east of the Delaware. I would expect isolated or scattered showers and weaker storms. Severe probabilities drop to practically zero east of Allentown. The seabreeze is absolutely ripping here with JFK gusting to 39 mph the last hour. Check out the whitecaps down in Long Beach. It's one of those days when you need cinder blocks to hold down your beach blanket. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 It's a stupid argument in my opinion because no area close to NYC experiences legit severe thunderstorms on a consistent basis. Not too many places anywhere get severe thunderstorms on a consistent basis...they usually come into being only when conditions are ideal (i.e. the approach of a cold front or dry line)...though, obviously, many places are far more predisposed climatologically to experience them...probably the western High Plains are the epicenter of that sort of thing in N. America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Up to 83 here first time since May here (although I cheated with a visit to Florida).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Wow-low 80's in spots already? I'm only at 72, but we have strong south winds off the 58 degree LI Sound here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 The seabreeze is absolutely ripping here with JFK gusting to 39 mph the last hour. Check out the whitecaps down in Long Beach. It's one of those days when you need cinder blocks to hold down your beach blanket. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Not too far from severe wind criteria!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Not too far from severe wind criteria!! Do you like life down there in the hailstone & sarsaparilla belt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Not too far from severe wind criteria!! Days like this have been severe sand in the chain and gears of my old boardwalk bike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Tor Warning on a cell in EPA, looks to be making a right turn though so it might end up going well South of most of us if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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