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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Made it down to only 57F last night, which was the warmest night we've had all of June, which is amazing. 

 

Forecast low is 50F and clear tonight, 55F and clear for Sunday night, going to be crisp and delightful outside.

 

Currently 64F, overcast skies, light south winds. Should make 75F if the sun emerges.

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Made it down to only 57F last night, which was the warmest night we've had all of June, which is amazing. 

 

Forecast low is 50F and clear tonight, 55F and clear for Sunday night, going to be crisp and delightful outside.

 

Currently 64F, overcast skies, light south winds. Should make 75F if the sun emerges.

 

 

Gorgeous evening here right now. 70/38 outside with lows probably near 50 tonight. Tomorrow will be a top 10 day of the year with low 70s and comfortable dews.

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...got down to 44* @ KFOX..48* here in eastport..beautiful crisp morning..

1st 'official' beach day today..little cool but the strong june sun will feel great as

long as the sea breeze stays in check.

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The warm weather fans finally get some love this week as the Euro takes a chunk of 16c+

850's Northeast peaking around Thursday. There would probably be a plume of low

90's pushing into Central New Jersey toward Newark. But the LI crew would enjoy another

Ambrose Jet day with cooler temps and strong onshore flow.

 

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It looks like once to the 12th we should see a bit of a back and forth warmth / cold front but overall warm as heights tend to remain elevated in the east.  Depending on the ridge strength and if we are on the edge.  But 6/15 - 6/22 looks to include some warmth, storm chances and perhaps even a bit of heat for a day or two.  Nothing prolonged at this time is looking likely in the heat department through 6/22, but certainly warmer than the last 7 days and even warmer than normal.  Thursday the next shot at 90s as BW mentioned above.  Park has had some rain so would count on 88/89 rather than 90s in the period when its hot.

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It looks like once to the 12th we should see a bit of a back and forth warmth / cold front but overall warm as heights tend to remain elevated in the east. Depending on the ridge strength and if we are on the edge. But 6/15 - 6/22 looks to include some warmth, storm chances and perhaps even a bit of heat for a day or two. Nothing prolonged at this time is looking likely in the heat department through 6/22, but certainly warmer than the last 7 days and even warmer than normal. Thursday the next shot at 90s as BW mentioned above. Park has had some rain so would count on 88/89 rather than 90s in the period when its hot.

There does look to be a front and rainfall chances next weekend so that might break the warmer weather.

June really has nowhere but warmer to go...my highs have been 58, 55, 64, 62, 70, 73...probably 72 today. Average is nearly 80 and rising so I'd expect some 80s..

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There does look to be a front and rainfall chances next weekend so that might break the warmer weather.

June really has nowhere but warmer to go...my highs have been 58, 55, 64, 62, 70, 73...probably 72 today. Average is nearly 80 and rising so I'd expect some 80s..

 

 

-10.4 here so far for June. Mean temps have been 60, 53, 59, 59, 61, 66, 59. Mean of 60 - more on par with May than June.

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Ridge building east of Hawaii and pushing a trough into the WC, building heights and ridging into the EC.  Longer range hinting the second half of June will be warm.  We;ll see if SE/E flow will mute the warm push but overall above normal regime bringing up the rear...

 

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Just a top notch day today .. 75 and sunny with deep blue skies.   i must've counted about 5 clouds all day.  Low of 47 to a high of 75. Parts of CA enjoy this weather most of the year, its quite therapeutic 

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Euro still has 90 degree potential from CNJ to Newark on Thursday. It has the warmest 850's

of the season so far on Saturday but it also shows some cloud potential to get in the way

of maximum heating for the +18C 850's over NNJ. But even so, it has low 90's from

CNJ to around Newark on Saturday.

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So far, the 1997 pattern evolution continues to provide a lot of insight into the current evolution.

 

The MJO reached Phase 2 yesterday. Its amplitude remained above 2 for the fourth consecutive day. On June 13, 1997, the MJO moved into Phase 2 and on June 16, the PNA went negative after a long stretch of positive values. Currently 22 of the last 23 days have seen positive values, but now the GFS ensembles are in strong agreement that a PNA- pattern will take hold in coming days.

 

June 16-July 4 1997 saw the Mid-Atlantic and New England experience warmer than normal temperatures. Such a pattern seems poised to move in beginning around June 9. Five of those 19 days saw the temperature reach or exceed 90° in New York City. So, in addition to thinking at least the next two weeks could turn out warmer than normal (as indicated on the ensembles; operational GFS is cooler) and supported by a high-amplitude MJO Phase 2, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one day during the upcoming warmer period saw a 90° reading in New York City.  

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So far, the 1997 pattern evolution continues to provide a lot of insight into the current evolution.

 

The MJO reached Phase 2 yesterday. Its amplitude remained above 2 for the fourth consecutive day. On June 13, 1997, the MJO moved into Phase 2 and on June 16, the PNA went negative after a long stretch of positive values. Currently 22 of the last 23 days have seen positive values, but now the GFS ensembles are in strong agreement that a PNA- pattern will take hold in coming days.

 

June 16-July 4 1997 saw the Mid-Atlantic and New England experience warmer than normal temperatures. Such a pattern seems poised to move in beginning around June 9. Five of those 19 days saw the temperature reach or exceed 90° in New York City. So, in addition to thinking at least the next two weeks could turn out warmer than normal (as indicated on the ensembles; operational GFS is cooler) and supported by a high-amplitude MJO Phase 2, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one day during the upcoming warmer period saw a 90° reading in New York City.  

 

Only 0.56 of rain fell in the park during that stretch (through the 4th.)  The warm period lingered until Jul 18th overall.  The hottest temps of that summer occurred between Jul 13 - 18.  Then, the cool and wet regime took over and ultimately yielded a -0.7 for July with 10.57 in the bucket in the park.  

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The weekend streak continues 10 for 10 with mainly decent/dry weather.  Probably 17 or 18 of 21 weekend days since Easter and Memorial Day that were nice.  Today was a real gem.

Last few summers have been like that, seems like any rains tend to be on Mondays/Tuesdays

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so far June 2015 has recorded 33 heating degree days bringing the season total to 4970...we would need 30 more to reach 5000 but that probably will not happen...The most HDD'ss in June was 62 in 1945...

year...amount...

1945...62

1903...52

1880...50

2003...47

1910...47

1916...41

1997...40

1926...39

1907...39

1982...36

1878...36

2015...33

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