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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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For the "westerners" on here... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0372.html

 

Associated MD:

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN PA...WRN NJ...SERN NY...MD...NRN   DE...NRN VA...AND WASHINGTON DC   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 301631Z - 301900Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON AND POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND   POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AREAS OF INSOLATION   FROM THE NRN VA PIEDMONT TO S-CNTRL PA AMIDST A BROAD...MERIDIONALLY   ORIENTED WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ERN-CONUS   TROUGH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THOSE AREAS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN   UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL/SERN PA PER RECENT 7-KM   CAPPI RADAR DATA. AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS   PARTS OF E-CNTRL/NERN PA AND POINTS FARTHER N/E...THE ENTIRE AREA   WILL BE SUBJECTED TO CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AMIDST RICH   PBL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE   LOWER 70S. THIS WILL FOSTER A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE   LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT... ESPECIALLY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL   PERTURBATION ACROSS PA GRAZES THE AREA.   THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE   SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND   PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED --   ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE VERTICAL MIXING IS MORE SUPPRESSED --   LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK FOR A   COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THIS WOULD PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE IN ERN PA   AND VICINITY WHERE INTERPOLATION BETWEEN REGIONAL VWPS IMPLY THE   STRONGEST FLOW WITH THE LLJ. THE MODEST NATURE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE   RATES AND UNCERTAINTY IN ANTECEDENT CLOUD/BUOYANCY EVOLUTION YIELD   SOME LIMITATIONS TO EXACT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY CONFIDENCE...THOUGH   THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
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ww0372_radar.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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TORNADO WARNING
PAC011-029-301830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0005.150630T1800Z-150630T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HONEY BROOK...OR 7 MILES EAST OF NEW HOLLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIRDSBORO...PARKESBURG...HONEY BROOK...ELVERSON...NEW MORGAN...
GLENMOORE...PUGHTOWN...ST. LAWRENCE...LORANE AND REIFFTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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TORNADO WARNING

PAC011-029-301830-

/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0005.150630T1800Z-150630T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTH CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED

NEAR HONEY BROOK...OR 7 MILES EAST OF NEW HOLLAND...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BIRDSBORO...PARKESBURG...HONEY BROOK...ELVERSON...NEW MORGAN...

GLENMOORE...PUGHTOWN...ST. LAWRENCE...LORANE AND REIFFTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE

HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Rotation looks marginal for that cell...

 

Now for the warning just issued by Allentown, that's a different story.

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Where is the guy from Allentown that always complains about getting shafted?

 

ORNADO WARNING
PAC077-301845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.150630T1813Z-150630T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER CLAUSSVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF ALLENTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALLENTOWN...SCHNECKSVILLE AND COFFEETOWN AROUND 230 PM EDT.
NEFFS AROUND 235 PM EDT.
EMERALD AROUND 240 PM EDT.
NORTHAMPTON...SLATINGTON AND WALNUTPORT AROUND 245 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
HOKENDAUQUA...FULLERTON...CATASAUQUA...COPLAY AND NORTH CATASAUQUA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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ww0372_radar.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 372

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE

MARYLAND

NEW JERSEY

SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS

THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS

POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED

TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

 

Where is the guy from Allentown that always complains about getting shafted?

 

ORNADO WARNING

PAC077-301845-

/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.150630T1813Z-150630T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

213 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED

OVER CLAUSSVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF ALLENTOWN...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

ALLENTOWN...SCHNECKSVILLE AND COFFEETOWN AROUND 230 PM EDT.

NEFFS AROUND 235 PM EDT.

EMERALD AROUND 240 PM EDT.

NORTHAMPTON...SLATINGTON AND WALNUTPORT AROUND 245 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

HOKENDAUQUA...FULLERTON...CATASAUQUA...COPLAY AND NORTH CATASAUQUA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE

HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Lol, I know right.

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Just hail... that is all she wrote..no thunder and no lightning. 2 minutes of hail... sorry still not going to classify as severe though

They have a confirmed funnel cloud with it and I didn't actually hear you complain about getting hail did I? I've only seen it in person 3 times in my entire life.

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They have a confirmed funnel cloud with it and I didn't actually hear you complain about getting hail did I? I've only seen it in person 3 times in my entire life.

Yeah cause to me a severe thunderstorm will contain the following:

 

Winds of at least 60 MPH but for a good one at 70 MPH

Cloud to ground lightning 

And lots of thunder ...

Along with hail...preferably at least a quarter size cause we have had nickle, dime, and pea size plenty of times in the past .. 

 

This contained 2 minutes of nickle size hail....

 

When you been thru the likes of a hurricane..2 minutes of hail (if that) equates to nothing... 

 

No funnel cloud in my vicinity...

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Yeah cause to me a severe thunderstorm will contain the following:

 

Winds of at least 60 MPH but for a good one at 70 MPH

Cloud to ground lightning 

And lots of thunder ...

Along with hail...preferably at least a quarter size cause we have had nickle, dime, and pea size plenty of times in the past .. 

 

This contained 2 minutes of nickle size hail....

 

When you been thru the likes of a hurricane..2 minutes of hail (if that) equates to nothing... 

 

No funnel cloud in my vicinity...

Lightning has nothing to do with severe criteria.

 

Hail of 1" or greater is considered severe, along with straight line winds in excess of 60MPH.

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Yeah cause to me a severe thunderstorm will contain the following:

 

Winds of at least 60 MPH but for a good one at 70 MPH

Cloud to ground lightning 

And lots of thunder ...

Along with hail...preferably at least a quarter size cause we have had nickle, dime, and pea size plenty of times in the past .. 

 

This contained 2 minutes of nickle size hail....

 

When you been thru the likes of a hurricane..2 minutes of hail (if that) equates to nothing... 

 

No funnel cloud in my vicinity...

FYI dude, the definition of a severe storm is disjunctive, not conjunctive.   So if you see any of the "severe" events, that's a severe storm.  It's not necessary to see all of them (and seeing all of them in a single storm is quite rare). 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1247 < Previous MD mcd1247.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN PA...FAR WRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 301857Z - 302000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS A

SMALL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 -- ACROSS PORTIONS

OF FAR ERN PA AND FAR WRN NJ.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 1.5 MB

PER 2 HOURS NEAR AND E OF AN AXIS OF DISCRETE CELLS EXTENDING FROM

NEAR ALLENTOWN TO W OF WILMINGTON DE WHERE DESTABILIZATION

CONTINUES. OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN EVIDENT BASED ON

SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA. CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE-60S

SFC DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY. DYNAMIC

PERTURBATION PRESSURES AT THE STORM-SCALE MAY ALLOW EWD PROPAGATION

OF THIS ACTIVITY IN AN OTHERWISE SWLY-FLOW-ALOFT REGIME...PERHAPS

TAKING IT TOWARD FAR WRN NJ AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE PHILADELPHIA

AREA IN THE SHORT-TERM. DOX/DIX VWPS SAMPLE A VERTICALLY VEERING

WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM AGL THAT MAY CONTINUE TO

ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SRH SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE RISK OF ONE OR TWO

TORNADOES. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW

STRENGTH MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK OVERALL.

..COHEN.. 06/30/2015

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It's amazing how we didn't even see this coming. Surprise severe days are the best severe days around here.

 

 

TBF, the area where these couplets are forming was on the edge of the slight risk, and SPC highlighted the area near the boundary for better low level shear and a higher tor risk in their morning discussion.  But generally agreed, this is a very tasty radar for severe in this neck of the woods.

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