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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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It's pretty hard to escape June without a hot stretch but the way things are looking I believe most sites will finish June around 1 or 2 degrees below average.

Playing around with the weeklies it looks like July 04 Weekend will be have below normal temps. and be mostly sunny, if a front passes by on time.

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_124HR.gif     Seems to warm as weekend progresses.

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It's pretty hard to escape June without a hot stretch but the way things are looking I believe most sites will finish June around 1 or 2 degrees below average.

It's going to be tough to shake off such a cool start without "hot" temps later this month. Averages are also continuing to rise.

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It's going to be tough to shake off such a cool start without "hot" temps later this month. Averages are also continuing to rise.

My highs for June have been 58, 55, 64, 62, and 60 (so far today, but expect 62-63.) Never really seen June start this cold, although 2009 was similar. Without a massive heat wave, the month should finish below normal as the first week will average around -10 with upper 70s tomorrow and low 70s Sunday.
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With the MJO reaching the highest June amplitudes since 1997 (and 10th highest amplitude on record), it's worth taking a closer look at 1997. The MJO has been in Phase 1 to date. It will likely move into Phase 2 in coming days. 1997 saw a prolonged period where the MJO was locked into Phase 2 (June 16-28). I'm not yet sure that will be the case this time around.

 

Below are the temperature anomalies for 1997 (Phases 1 and 2):

 

MJO06052015.jpg

 

If 1997 is representative, one should see a shift in the temperature regime with perhaps the 7-10-day period beginning around June 8 +/- 2 days seeing warmer than normal temperatures begin to develop in the East. Support exists on some of the major guidance.

 

Unlike 1997, when Phase 2 coincided with a strongly negative PNA, the PNA is forecast to slowly move from positive to negative. Hence, the upcoming period would probably start warmer than normal in the Pacific Northwest and perhaps wind up averaging warmer than normal, as the PNA+ has been predominating and the guidance may yet be rushing a trough to the PNA region.

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It's hard to justify people's complaints after one of the warmest May's on record. So a few days to start off June are cool and cloudy, it's not a big deal.

Today is actually pretty nice with decent sunshine at times. We'll be in the heat before you know it and then people will wish they had a cool day or two.

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In #136, I noted the likely shift in the MJO to Phase 2 in coming days as a possible signal of a shift to warm anomalies after a very cool start to June. June 1997 was the reference point, based on the exceptional El Niño-driven amplitude of the MJO. The 12z guidance is now suggesting that warm anomalies should develop around June 7-8 in the Midwest and Ohio Valley and then spread eastward into the Middle Atlantic and New England areas on June 9. The GFS is more aggressive than the ECMWF, but the progression of the MJO could favor the GFS.

 

Below are the temperatures shown on the 6/5/2015 12z GFS MEX MOS for New York City for the June 6-12, 2015 timeframe:

 

NYC06052015.jpg

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Definitely a touch of 2009 this week, it has rained every day so far. Poor warlock

 

Seems worse - more like 2003.  Luckily I am out of town for that one.  What a contrast from the Jun-like (and one of the best) Mays we've ever had.

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