IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 uh theres nothing after this batch really, scattered stuff Models have the heaviest rains falling over the next 8-9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 .92" on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Heaviest rain yet for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Convection should fire near the triple point, that was always supposed to be where we got our excessive numbers from. This is valid 4 1/2 hours from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 How much has the park received? And im at .75 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 0.91" for the day so far.... Appears the heaviest of rains have been shunted off to the east a bit. Back edge now in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 61 degrees and closing in on .75 inches of rain so far here in Sheepshead Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Coming down in Wantagh finally. Not as much as we could have gotten but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Up to 0.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think these convection-based overnight rains are being hugely overdone by the models, but OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think these convection-based overnight rains are being hugely overdone by the models, but OK. Parts of S central NJ picked up 3-4" so it's not unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Parts of S central NJ picked up 3-4" so it's not unlikely. Winds are really increasing here now. Definitly gusts around 30. Rain not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Parts of S central NJ picked up 3-4" so it's not unlikely. Do the rains that have fallen so far necessarily have any bearing on rains to come? Other than perhaps as an indication of available moisture? The radar has a lot of filling-in to do. I just feel like I've seen this story before, where somebody says the event is not over, we're going to see things explode, etc etc etc. That being said I don't think I'm nearly as emotional as most of the board ( ) so if there's some scientific reason I should look for more precip I'm all ears. I don't get married to my predictions or feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Do the rains that have fallen so far necessarily have any bearing on rains to come? Other than perhaps as an indication of available moisture? The radar has a lot of filling-in to do. I just feel like I've seen this story before, where somebody says the event is not over, we're going to see things explode, etc etc etc. That being said I don't think I'm nearly as emotional as most of the board ( ) so if there's some scientific reason I should look for more precip I'm all ears. I don't get married to my predictions or feelings. There is a developing surface low pressure down in the Mid-Atlantic which is forecast to move North overnight. More activity should continue to fire North of that until the subsidence finally takes over once the low is over C NJ early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 0.92 at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 .95 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.05" here so far and a high temp for the day of just 68 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Looks like most areas are going to underperform. I'm really getting sick of the terrible model performances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.02" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Still pouring in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 With the rain moving due north, there is still a lot of rain to come. Rain is still firing north of the warm front in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Looks like most areas are going to underperform. I'm really getting sick of the terrible model performances. Like I said before, people really like to buy into model predictions of convection, when convection is the most difficult aspect of any given meteorological event to predict and is usually overdone. At a certain point you have to start taking into account that models basically never handle convection well. Read it again: models do not handle convection very well. Convective-based events are always poorly predicted. Convection is far too dependent on discerete aspects of the environment and small-scale, short-term fluctuations of the surface and atmosphere. And here you see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Picked up 1.10" of rain yesterday, 0.13" so far today, total 1.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Area airports and KNYC all are very close to the same totals so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Park up to 1.26" We'll see how close to NWS forecast it verifies. Anyway, the forecast wasn't very off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Rain should be out by 9-10pm. Its moving quickly Still raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Still raining hereoff by 5-6 hours. Either way the heavy rain was out by 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 off by 5-6 hours. Either way the heavy rain was out by 10-12. Either way we got another 0.50"+ since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.33 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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