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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Sounds wet.

 

 AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER OH AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2...THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE SHIFTS FROM CONVECTIVE TO SYNOPTIC. INSTABILITY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN PA INTO WESTERN NY STATE IS FORCED UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION INTO A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY STATE. A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) UP AND OVER THE FRONT...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY STATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

[...]

FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE OCCLUSION OR WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY REMAINS A VIABLE ENTITY FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WHILE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/WESTERNMOST NY STATE/MUCH OF PA INTO WESTERN NJ...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW PUMPS 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

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