IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 This is the wettest of the major global models for this weekend. It has tomorrow night hitting mostly south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 And for next seven days? Widespread 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Last three GFS runs for this weekend (Includes Thursday night into Friday morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Widespread 3-4" Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like a winter pattern coming up this weekend. Sheesh, its the first week of astro summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 15z SREF mean shifted a hair south for tomorrow night and the 18z NAM seems to be following suit. We'll have to see if this is just typical model noise or not. This is a big deal because if the area gets heavy rain on Thursday night and then the storm for this weekend materializes, flooding could start to become a major concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Where was this in Febuary ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 12z EPS mean is wet from Saturday late morning through about Sunday late morning. Roughly a 24 hour rainstorm incoming with lots of convection. Probably a steady rain from about Noon on Saturday until midnight Saturday night and then periods of showers/storms thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 DT had a good write up about this pattern change and how the models could be underestimating rainfall along the east coast the next several days into July 4th weekend. It seems like the models have been coming in wetter as we get closer to the end of the week and the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 DT had a good write up about this pattern change and how the models could be underestimating rainfall along the east coast the next several days into July 4th weekend. It seems like the models have been coming in wetter as we get closer to the end of the week and the weekend. Think of this setup as you would a cut off low in late Spring but with more juice to work with. You have an onshore flow off of warm water which will provide plenty of moisture to be advected into the system. What this storm has going for it is the closed low to our West and a decent baroclinic zone. Two ingredients for synoptic rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Just FYI, looks like the downtown heliport ASOS is back online: http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:10269.7.99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Check out this METAR from Coro, Venezuela (on the Caribbean) from earlier today: METAR SVCR 241800Z /////KT 9999 FEW020 37/30 Q1013 That's a HI of 133F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Check out this METAR from Coro, Venezuela (on the Caribbean) from earlier today: METAR SVCR 241800Z /////KT 9999 FEW020 37/30 Q1013 That's a HI of 133F. How do you get 133F from this? Isn't this 98.6/86.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 How do you get 133F from this? Isn't this 98.6/86.0? No that's an heat Index. That sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 The 15z SREF mean shifted a hair south for tomorrow night and the 18z NAM seems to be following suit. We'll have to see if this is just typical model noise or not. This is a big deal because if the area gets heavy rain on Thursday night and then the storm for this weekend materializes, flooding could start to become a major concern. I see 0z RGEM now completely misses us to the south with the rain Thursday night and Friday morning. NAM and GFS still give us a decent soaking of rain, but I'm betting on RGEM. We're probably gonna have to wait until Saturday for our rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Today's highs: TEB: 84 NYC: 84 EWR: 86 LGA: 83 JFK:86 ISP: 83 New Brunswick: 85 TTN: 83 PHL: 85 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I see 0z RGEM now completely misses us to the south with the rain Thursday night and Friday morning. NAM and GFS still give us a decent soaking of rain, but I'm betting on RGEM. We're probably gonna have to wait until Saturday for our rain.Euro is 0.25"+ for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Euro is close to two inches of rain from now until Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Second June in a row without 95 degree or greater heat at Newark. It's only the third occurrence for the 2000's so far. June highs at Newark for the 2000's 15...93 14...92 13...96 12...99 11...102 10...98 09...89 08...99 07...96 06...98 05...97 04...97 03...95 02...96 01...95 00...96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 HPC has placed nearly the entire region in a day 3 outlook for excessive rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 2-3" of rain for the area on the NAM this weekend, isolated higher amounts. Convection fires over the Delmarva Saturday night and crosses the region and we all know how fickle those things can be. The main rain shield starts off over PA and then transfers as the secondary takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 2-3" of rain for the area on the NAM this weekend, isolated higher amounts. Convection fires over the Delmarva Saturday night and crosses the region and we all know how fickle those things can be. The main rain shield starts off over PA and then transfers as the secondary takes over. Will probably come down to nowcast again as the models haven't been so hot with the placement of heaviest rain for the June 1 EWR deluge , Bill remnants , or the convective event on Tuesday. But the heavy rain signal is strong for for whoever jackpots with this synoptic set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Will probably come down to nowcast again as the models haven't been so hot with the placement of heaviest rain for the June 1 EWR deluge , Bill remnants , or the convective event on Tuesday. But the heavy rain signal is strong for for whoever jackpots with this synoptic set up. Yes I was a lot more confident when the models were taking the main low pressure system further East. This looks to be in and out in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Anyone have a current link for SBU WRF model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Anyone have a current link for SBU WRF model output? http://glacier.somas.stonybrook.edu/sbuwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Tonight is probably going to end up being mostly dry outside of a few isolated showers/storms. Every model shifted well South, some further than others. Even the GFS which typically has not clue puts the QPF bullseye near Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 http://glacier.somas.stonybrook.edu/sbuwrf/ Thanks, but that link has hadn't a run posted since last fall... Have been using http://itpa.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/most of this spring but the site has been non-responsive at times and now hasn't worked in a couple of weeks and no longer shows up in Google search results, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Bulk of rain on the 12z GFS falls between 00z Saturday night and 09z early Sunday morning. Gone by Sunrise. The mid-level jet really cranks right over the area as a large fire hose of convection forms over the Mid-Atlantic and travels NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 so far June temperatures are averaging near the 30 year average mostly due to warm minimums...75 is the warmest minimum so far...84 is the record high minimum for any day...last time that happened was in 2011...some years had mornings with lows 80 or higher but by midnight either by showers or cold front the temp fell below 80...2011 is the last year with a minimum 80 or higher...I think Central Park will have a morning 80 or above this year...TWT... days with a min. 80 or above...1905-1908 had many days 80 or above for the minimum...2010-2011 had five between them... min/max.......dates...81/90......7/03/187681/90......7/19/187880/95......7/07/188380/94......7/25/188581/91......8/11/189182/98......8/09/189680/94......8/10/189681/96......8/11/189681/95......7/18/190082/100....7/02/190180/96......7/18/190580/95......7/19/190580/92......8/11/190580/87......7/23/190680/94......8/06/190680/90......7/05/190881/95......7/06/190884/93......7/07/190881/93......8/05/190880/87......8/06/190882/94......8/13/190884/93......8/14/190882/100....7/31/191782/98......8/01/191780/96......8/06/191882/104....8/07/191881/94......7/20/193080/98......8/02/193381/100....6/26/195280/95......7/16/195280/101....7/22/195781/95......7/23/197882/102....7/21/198080/96......8/08/198080/95......8/09/198080/95......8/15/198580/94......8/12/198880/99......8/14/198881/97......8/15/198880/100....7/08/199380/102....7/10/199384/102....7/15/199582/102....7/05/199983/101....7/06/199982/103....8/09/200182/95......7/03/200281/96......7/04/200280/95......7/30/200280/98......8/13/200280/99......8/13/200583/97......8/02/200681/103....7/06/201080/100....7/07/201080/97......7/24/201084/104....7/22/201183/100....7/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 a 9 degree diurnal range with a low of 84 is insane. the dewpoint must have been near or above 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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