IsentropicLift Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Obviously fantasy range but the Euro has development in the Gulf late next week. Ridge would be in good position to have that ride Northeastward right into our region after making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 You might break 70 on June 3rd. That's one heck of an achievement. I hope you realize they're essentially trolling you and whatever you say back won't matter to them. And for warm weather trolls, they've won with a top 3 warmest May but then you could say you've won this winter so it evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 I'm remeber in 2009 we had high heat in May then we never saw 90 again as the summer went on to be cool and wet. That was a El Niño year. 2009 was neutral coming off La nina and went nino in the summer. 87, 80, 92/93 / 53 best analos for enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The day 6-10 Euro and GFS pumps the ridge north of Hawaii with a downstream amplification near or just off the East Coast. So if the models are correct about this 6-10 day pattern, then we'll see 850's of 16C+ and 90 degree potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 4, 2015 Author Share Posted June 4, 2015 Passing shower here in queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Made it down to 50F in Dobbs Ferry last night, still very cool for June. Clouds should keep us in the 60s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Still a D1 for the vast majority of Long Island, from Eastern Queens to the forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Still a D1 for the vast majority of Long Island, from Eastern Queens to the forks. And that means nothing out this way because we still almost had river flooding here, and we missed out for the most part on the heaviest rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Monday still looks pretty good for widespread thunderstorm activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The day 6-10 Euro and GFS pumps the ridge north of Hawaii with a downstream amplification near or just off the East Coast. So if the models are correct about this 6-10 day pattern, then we'll see 850's of 16C+ and 90 degree potential. get_legacy_plot-web248-21afb3424b395e92cb7f1b5bc9f473fd-C_B4H0.gif FWIW the 00z GEFS mean effective the same time period agreed pretty well with the EPS idea, however it backed off at 06z with a switch to more of a troughing regime. The GEFS is also above normal precip in the East week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 FWIW the 00z GEFS mean effective the same time period agreed pretty well with the EPS idea, however it backed off at 06z with a switch to more of a troughing regime. The GEFS is also above normal precip in the East week 2. My guess is that a warm spot like Newark will probably make it to 85+ day 6-10 with a 90 or greater possible with enough sun and slower frontal timing. We'll need a better day 6-10 performance than we just saw for this week for the warmer end of readings to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 My guess is that a warm spot like Newark will probably make it to 85+ day 6-10 with a 90 or greater possible with enough sun and slower frontal timing. We'll need a better day 6-10 performance than we just saw for this week for the warmer end of readings to verify. Agreed - I am leaning more towards the latter part of the period (6/15) for any potential heat (90+ readings) but guidance is indicating that we should ride at or above potentially beginning 6/12. We'll see if this continues on todays guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Thru 6./3 NYC: -11.4 EWR: -11.1 LGA: -11.8 JFK: -8.9 TTN: -8.3 PHL: -7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I remember in June 1977 we had a cool week with temperatures as low as 50...June 1977 ended up with temperatures averaging below normal...July turned out hot...1965 had a very cool period 13th-19th...it did hit 95 on 6/29/65...hottest of the year...June 1972 and 1974 had a cool period near the end of the month...If this was December and we were experiencing much above normal temperatures the first week it would be a bad sign for the winter...is this cool damp period a bad sign for a hot summer?...the 1977 analog says no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I remember in June 1977 we had a cool week with temperatures as low as 50...June 1977 ended up with temperatures averaging below normal...July turned out hot...1965 had a very cool period 13th-19th...it did hit 95 on 6/29/65...hottest of the year...June 1972 and 1974 had a cool period near the end of the month...If this was December and we were experiencing much above normal temperatures the first week it would be a bad sign for the winter...is this cool damp period a bad sign for a hot summer?...the 1977 analog says no... June 2002 got off to a cool start (0verall) and didn't warm till late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I'm actually quite surprised that the modeling only has a chance of a stray shower the next few days given that stalled out upper low is still spinning over SC, unless some drier air to the North is winning out? But we should have a direct moisture feed in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I remember in June 1977 we had a cool week with temperatures as low as 50...June 1977 ended up with temperatures averaging below normal...July turned out hot...1965 had a very cool period 13th-19th...it did hit 95 on 6/29/65...hottest of the year...June 1972 and 1974 had a cool period near the end of the month...If this was December and we were experiencing much above normal temperatures the first week it would be a bad sign for the winter...is this cool damp period a bad sign for a hot summer?...the 1977 analog says no... The interesting thing about the summer of 1977 was that all the heat was packed into a 9 day period in mid-July with the rest of the summer averaging closer to normal. The whole July departure of +2.4 was a result of 7/13 to 7/21. It was the opposite of the winter of 1982-1983 with a 9 day stretch of cold and snow in an overall warm winter. 6/1-6/30....-1.4 7/1-7/12...+1.3 7/13-7/21..+9.6.....93...92...96...98...97...100...102...92...104... 7/22-7/31...-2.1 8/1-8/31....+0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The interesting thing about the summer of 1977 was that all the heat was packed into a 9 day period in mid-July with the rest of the summer averaging closer to normal. The whole July departure of +2.4 was a result of 7/13 to 7/21. It was the opposite of the winter of 1982-1983 with a 9 day stretch of cold and snow in an overall warm winter. 6/1-6/30....-1.4 7/1-7/12...+1.3 7/13-7/21..+9.6.....93...92...96...98...97...100...102...92...104... 7/22-7/31...-2.1 8/1-8/31....+0.8 A less hot version of 2011. A similar progression of normal June hot July and warm August For NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A less hot version of 2011. A similar progression of normal June hot July and warm August For NYC. Repeat of August 2011 in the works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Some good reads http://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/07/how-hot-is-hot-concentration-of-90-degree-days.html http://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html http://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/1991-1993-have-most-90-degree-days-in-new-york-but-2010-is-tops-in-another-heat-related-category-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Repeat of August 2011 in the works? Sump pumps, mosquitos, mold, wrecked basements and flooded yard. Sounds great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The GFS has really slowed down the progression of the front for next week. Rain chances Monday, Tuesday and now possibly Wednesday morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Some good support on the ensembles for some type of development in the Gulf, and it seems like CPC is leaning towards a wetter solution in the East with a storm track stemming from the Gulf up the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The 12z GGEM really drops the hammer here Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A less hot version of 2011. A similar progression of normal June hot July and warm August For NYC. Those were the days before the overgrowth around the NYC sensor so the temperatures tracked closer to Newark than they do today. Newark was actually cooler in that 9 day heatwave than NYC and only finished July +1.8 instead of the NYC +2.4. Newark only hit 102 for a monthly high while NYC was 104. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Bad timing with the front for Monday on the Euro. We get a weakening area of convection overnight into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 High of 65 at the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 63 for the high here...normal is 78 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 1993 and 1977 have the hottest week on record...1896 is fourth...with no ac it must have been brutal...2011 comes in fifth...1955 has two weeks on this list... Hottest seven day period...high low mean max ..98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 199398.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 197798.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 195395.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 189695.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 201195.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 198896.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 194496.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 195595.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 200194.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 198097.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 199195.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 197394.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 198194.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 201095.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Suspect we should see ridging develop around mid month on/around 6/15 with another warm spell beyond there. Before then 6/11 or 6/12 could be warm too with transient fronts and storm potential. Track the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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