SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The hunt for red July....... Summer time blues rules to end June but will things remain and heat constrain to our southwest or does the rain refrain and heat arrive for the boys of summer? 6/20 - 6/21 : Bill, rain 6/21: Pending on Bill HHH 6/22: Last of the warm to hot days in June? 6/23 - 6/28 : Overall wet and at or below normal (day or two in the period will be warmer than normal) Overall -2 to -5 6/29 - beyond : Trough holds or Ridge reload east as WC pulls back west? In WAR we TRUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Refreshing the last few Junes EWR: 14: +0.4 13: +0.9 12: +0.0 11: +2.0 10: +3.8 09: -3.6 08: +2.9 07: +0.3 06: +0.1 05: +2.2 04: -0.1 03: -3.2 02: -0.1 01: +1.5 00: +0.1 NYC: 14: +1.0 13: +1.2 12: -0.5 11: +.9 10: +3.2 09: -4.0 08: +2.6 07: -0.1 06: -0.5 05: +2.6 04: -0.2 03: -3.1 02: +0.1 01: +1.5 00: -0.2 LGA: 14: +0.3 13: +1.9 12: +0.7 11: +0.5 10: +3.8 09: -3.9 08: +3.6 07: +1.8 06: +1.3 05: +2.4 04: +0.3 03: -3.1 02: +0.5 01: +2.2 00: +0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Departures through 6/19 NYC: -0.3 EWR: -0.4 MMU: +0.6 LGA: -.1.3 JFK: +0.5 TTN: +1.5 PHL: +2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The idea of the stronger WAA pushing Bill's heavy rains right across our area has resulted in warmer readings getting further north on the models now after the storm Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. There is the potential for locations to tie or beat their highs for the month of June on Tuesday. Highs for June so far 93..EWR 92..LGA 89..NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The idea of the stronger WAA pushing Bill's heavy rains right across our area has resulted in warmer readings getting further north on the models now after the storm Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. There is the potential for locations to tie or beat their highs for the month of June on Tuesday. Highs for June so far 93..EWR 92..LGA 89..NYC f78.gif there's also a severe threat with an eml possible and a strong s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 This Front just loves the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Another cool day here....66F with a few sprinkles and grey skies, shouldn't get much past 70F. Most of this week was fairly cool with 70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, 77F Wednesday, 70F Thursday, and 80F Friday. June has been around -1F departure here, and it would be a lot more if it weren't for the generally mild, cloudy nights. Can't remember a June with so many maxes in the 60s and low 70s since 2009. We even had highs of 58F and 55F on June 1-2. The stalled out warm front has been relentless this month, with some very warm weather Central NJ and south, while we get east winds and overcast skies...Most of the mid-Atlantic is above average, for example DCA +3.6F and RDU +3.0F, whereas BOS is -2.9F (they didn't break 60F for the first five days of June, and June 1st and 2nd both had highs of 49 degrees at Logan)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 the gfs is faster with bill and has 90+ for the metro sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 June gloom at noon TEB: 65 NYC: 67 EWR: 67 LGA: 66 JFK: 69 ISP: 69 New Brunswick: 63 BLM: 70 -------------front---------- TTN: 72 PHL: 80 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 1PM TEB: 64 NYC: 66 EWR: 65 LGA: 66 JFK: 69 ISP: 68 New Brunswick: 67 BLM: 70 TTN: 74 PHL: 81 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Its Looking like we could have a good severe weather day on tuesday according to the GFS and NAM. SPC even has a TOR signal over the area on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 A sun sighting, id like to report a large brightness coming from the sky in London.. I mean ..Monroe, NJ. Some bigger breaks to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bill is likely to track right a long the warm front so if you end up South of that you might stay mostly dry tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The 12z Euro tracks Bill and the heavy overrunning rains right across the area from west to east. It has mid to upper 80's behind the storm as we get breaks of sun in the afternoon. So the Euro track is further south than the GFS like the other guidance. It also has Tuesday as the warmest day with severe potential later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bill is likely to track right a long the warm front so if you end up South of that you might stay mostly dry tonight Looking good. I think allot of people are in for surprise. Should have wind gusts up to 40. And of course heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Central and southern NJ probably get some severe weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Biggest severe risk in a few.years coming Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Biggest severe risk in a few.years coming Tuesday Derecho with a few discrete supercells ahead of the line lets go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Derecho with a few discrete supercells ahead of the line lets go!!! Good parameters even for the coast for once on the models. Might be a mod risk day for much of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. I agree. But on the current event I'm sitting in my backyard less then a mile from the bay and the wind has finally pick up allot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd be very cautious forecasting severe weather. It looks like it could favor areas to our north far more than here. It's def looks more widespread north of here but it's still a good setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 It's def looks more widespread north of here but it's still a good setup for us. Looks like you scored today. It's funny on the south shore when you win with just a little bit of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Todays ugly dingy high/low. Most sites north of TTN had midnight highs. Sun never made it north of 195. NYC: 75/64 (-3) EWR: 74/65 (-4) LGA: 73/64 (-5) JFK: 75/67(-1) TTN: 75/69 (+0) PHL: 86/71 (+4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 This looks about 6 - 9 hours. Hopefully its out by 8-10 AM or sooner and thn clearing by 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Going to get really warm today as we start to see breaks of sun behind Bill. The warm spots like Newark should reach mid to upper 80's to maybe near 90. Tuesday continues to look like we potentially rival or surpass the warmest day of June so far with a severe thunderstorm potential dropping down from the NW. The EPS show the trough returning to the NE Thursday to close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers our there. Remnants of Bill. Good riddance NYC: 0.35 EWR: 0.24 LGA: 025 JFK: 0.22 New Brunswick: 0.35 TTN: 0.40 PHL: 0.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Thru 6/20 NYC: -0.4 EWR: -0.6 LGA: -1.5 JFK: +0.4 MMU: +0.3 TTN: +1.4 PHL: +2.2 With 10 days to go 21 - 23 : look much above 24 - 26 : near normal 27 - 30 : normal or below Going to be close but would lean negatives north of TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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