IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 3-4" of rain from TTN to NYC and under 0.25" for NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM is further north than other models that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 If you mean by the end of the month then based off the current guidance most NYC stations (NYC, EWR, LGA, JFK, ISP) will likely finish below. But as of today JFK running a slight positive +0.3, New Brunswick is +0.9, TTN +1.4, MMU +0.3 I've always stated that most sites would finish near average or slightly below for the month. Warlock made a claim yesterday that he was +1.5. I would like to see something to verify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM is further north than other models that's for sure The NAM held steady with the track of the low but shifted the axis of heavy rains southeast about 40 miles. Most of NJ, the LHV into NYC does very well but a very sharp cut off occurs near MMU. 06z had the sharp cut off over NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The timing of this has really sped up as well. If the NAM is correct it will be in around 10PM Saturday night and out around 6AM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Looks like I might be largely high and dry in South Jersey this weekend which is good news. Also good news on the overnight track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 last night's euro barely gives us anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The NAM's evolution of the storm after it passes our area is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 last night's euro barely gives us anything I've yet to see a remotely consistent model with this feature aside from the SREF/NAM combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The NAM's evolution of the storm after it passes our area is interesting. It phases with the trough swinging through the lakes. Instead of interacting with Bill in a more positive manner at our longitude the phase is delayed and everything gets crushed South. Very low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The NAM brings Bill through early enough Sunday for some 90 degree potential in the afternoon. Not every day that you see a tropical system with such strong WAA 20C 850's behind. So hopefully this strong WAA keeps the storm on a more northerly NAM track so my garden will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 4k NAM is significantly further NW than its 12k counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z Rgem is 2" of rain from Philly to NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12Z GFS is way North, about 50-75 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Crush job on the GFS, a tick NW of the 12z 12k NAM. Close to the 06z NAM and 4k 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Crush job on the GFS, a tick NW of the 12z 12k NAM. Close to the 06z NAM and 4k 12z NAM. Rgem, GFS and NAM are all very similar. 2" of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 1.50-3.00" of rain on the 12z GFS for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Rgem, GFS and NAM are all very similar. 2" of rain for the area. The RGEM is dry for most of NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The RGEM is dry for most of NNJ The idea is exactly the same. You're taking a 10-25 mile difference too literally. Convection will be involved and no model will pinpoint the exact location of the bullseye. A general 1"-3" rainfall is becoming more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The GFS gets 2000-3000 J/KG of SBCAPE into the area by Sunday afternoon with the approaching cold front. So Bill moves out by mid-morning and then we bang and boom by dinner time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The idea is exactly the same. You're taking a 10-25 mile difference too literally. Convection will be involved and no model will pinpoint the exact location of the bullseye. A general 1"-3" rainfall is becoming more and more likely. I agree with you, but NWS mentioned a sharp northern cut off on its AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That really impressive WAA is keeping it on a more northerly track as even the GFS brings +20C 850's right behind Bill. Temps can really take off behind the storm from the mid 80's to possibly around 90 in spots with faster clearing. Hopefully it's in and out overnight but suspect clouds linger sunday pm for a while and could make any 90 degree readings tough. The good news is monday looks warm as well and may over perform.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 bill's remnants affects how the -nao develops and all these short term swings are leading to long term swings. next week just got more interesting for convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 bill's remnants affects how the -nao develops and all these short term swings are leading to long term swings. next week just got more interesting for convection Does it impede or help the -NAO? I always thought a -NAO in the middle of summer could give us hot conditions, but guess it depends on other factors too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 bill's remnants affects how the -nao develops and all these short term swings are leading to long term swings. next week just got more interesting for convection Even later Sunday after the remnants of Bill passes by. The parameters look pretty good (on the american models) for maybe some organized severe storms. The earlier Bill departs the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Hopefully it's in and out overnight but suspect clouds linger sunday pm for a while and could make any 90 degree readings tough. The good news is monday looks warm as well and may over perform.. Yeah, a slower solution than 12z would result in more lingering clouds later into the day after Bill and 80-85 highs after the heavy rains. But a slightly faster track would allow more breaks after 18z and a push of potential 85-90 degree readings from TTN to EWR on 850's of 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yeah, a slower solution than 12z would result in more lingering clouds later into the day after Bill and 80-85 highs after the heavy rains. But a slightly faster track would allow more breaks after 18z and a push of potential 85-90 degree readings from TTN to EWR on 850's of 20C. I just hope this 12 hours of intense rain doesn't end up fizzling out into a glorified thunderstorm when all is said and done. And I'm ticked off that most of this will fall while most people are sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I just hope this 12 hours of intense rain doesn't end up fizzling out into a glorified thunderstorm when all is said and done. And I'm ticked off that most of this will fall while most people are sleeping. 12z Ukmet is a bit slower and has heavy rains through about noon. Total precip lines up with the consensus. 1"-3" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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