IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z GFS is just a hair south. 2-3" of rain for Central and Southern NJ with under half inch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z GFS is just a hair south. 2-3" of rain for Central and Southern NJ with under half inch north. whats the timing with this **** on the 00z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Warm front on the move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The EPS really latches onto holding the trough over the NE from the middle of next week right into the first week of July. It pumps that world famous EPO/PNA ridge yet again with some help from the -NAO. You have to give the EPS credit for seeing every amplification of this ridge going pack to last November from the weekly range. The only weakness at times has been not seeing enough of a trough near the NE and catching up the closer in we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The EPS really latches onto holding the trough over the NE from the middle of next week right into the first week of July. It pumps that world famous EPO/PNA ridge yet again with some help from the -NAO. You have to give the EPS credit for seeing every amplification of this ridge going pack to last November from the weekly range. The only weakness at times has been not seeing enough of a trough near the NE and catching up the closer in we got. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Awesome Early next week looks like it could be the last potential 90 degree readings for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Wrong time for the -NAO to show its face. Anyways what did the Euro show for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Models went south with Bill overnight. I suspect this is typical over correction and we'll be right in the crosshairs by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 All except the NAM which floods NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 All except the NAM which floods NNJ The UKMET was also further north. It will be interesting to see if the warm push with 850 20C's south of the storm bring it further north from near Cape May than the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Does anyone in this forum live in Ttn? I'm still waiting for the heat and humidity he promised...still no 90's at nyc Ive had 5 plus 90 days this year for the record Looks like today will see some sun and warm muggies with highs in the mid 80s imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Ive had 5 plus 90 days this year for the record Looks like today will see some sun and warm muggies with highs in the mid 80s imby Where do you get your records from? Nobody here is interested in what your car thermometer read last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Early next week looks like it could be the last potential near 90 degree readings for a while. Looks capped through 6/28 for sure especially the park.. We'll have to rely on the WAR to bring some more warmth until the wc ridging pulls back west. Too early to tell if this is the mean pattern developing as this is very different from 03,09 and other wet and cool years. 97 87 still holding weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Looks capped through 6/28 for sure especially the park.. We'll have to rely on the WAR to bring some more warmth until the wc ridging pulls back west. Too early to tell if this is the mean pattern developing as this is very different from 03,09 and other wet and cool years. 97 87 still holding weight. How has it not been wet? With yesterdays light rain I've now had measurable rain in 14 of the first 19 days of June this year with more rain coming this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Where do you get your records from? Nobody here is interested in what your car thermometer read last week. Most sites from CNJ and even union and Essex have between 3 and 5 90 degree days. New Brunswick at 4 and Trenton 4. This is an example of the issue with the perception of Central Park being the center for weather for the nyc:metro areas. "Hasn't hit 90 in nyc yet, when all the boroughs have". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 How has it not been wet? With yesterdays light rain I've now had measurable rain in 14 of the first 19 days of June this year with more rain coming this weekend. I've had 2.76" of rain for June so far. Not really that wet given an average of 3.98". Maybe I'll be there after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Most sites from CNJ and even union and Essex have between 3 and 5 90 degree days. New Brunswick at 4 and Trenton 4. This is an example of the issue with the perception of Central Park being the center for weather for the nyc:metro areas. "Hasn't hit 90 in nyc yet, when all the boroughs have". You're giving him too much credit. He doesn't look at actual data, just whatever his thermometer said. He's also been caught under inflating snow totals. Who does that? He has lost all credibility on this board because he never uses anything to back up his statements. If he can produce an actual piece of data indicating that a site in this region is above normal for the month then I will stand corrected. Either way, it should be negated by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I've had 2.76" of rain for June so far. Not really that wet given an average of 3.98". Maybe I'll be there after Sunday. My closest reporting station is at 3.77" so far this month (Caldwell Airport). You can get that much rain from one storm. 7 of the rain days in June so far have been under 1" events, and when it hasn't been raining it's been cloudy and nasty like much of the last two days. The only real nice days we had were the 7th, 10th and 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Where do you get your records from? Nobody here is interested in what your car thermometer read last week. Dude New Brunswick has 4 90s thats my closest station...I registered 5....deal with the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 You're giving him too much credit. He doesn't look at actual data, just whatever his thermometer said. He's also been caught under inflating snow totals. Who does that? He has lost all credibility on this board because he never uses anything to back up his statements. If he can produce an actual piece of data indicating that a site in this region is above normal for the month then I will stand corrected. Either way, it should be negated by the end of the month. True or false New Brunswick is running above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Dude New Brunswick has 4 90s thats my closest station...I registered 5....deal with the facts If you use Somerset Airport they hit 90 twice so far in June, 91 degrees on both the 11th and 12th. No official 90 degree readings in May although they recorded several highs in the upper 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 True or false New Brunswick is running above normal Since you're the one making the claim that it's above average please provide data backing up your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Clouds quickly burning off now. Humid and 72 here, temps will jump once the sun kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Clouds quickly burning off now. Humid and 72 here, temps will jump once the sun kicks in. Some SBCAPE building. The NAM has some activity later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 12z NAM is virtually identical with the remnants of Bill to it's 06z run through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 the 1934 analog keeps showing up...is 100 degrees in the future?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 12z NAM is virtually identical with the remnants of Bill to it's 06z run through 36 hours. can you post a QPF map when the run is done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 can you post a QPF map when the run is done? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Going to have a mega screw zone just North of the heavy rain .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE REMNANTS OF BILL ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SUN. THIS MEANSINCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SAT NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THEHEAVY RAIN THREAT ON SUN PER THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WASCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THATTHE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WITH ONLYSOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT IN A ZONE TOO FAR N OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ANDTOO FAR S OF THE UPR JET. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SWATH OF LITTLETO NO PRECIPITATION...WHICH IN THE 00Z GFS IS OVER THE NORTHERN HALFTO THIRD OF THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ALL THEFEATURES WILL LINE UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 You're giving him too much credit. He doesn't look at actual data, just whatever his thermometer said. He's also been caught under inflating snow totals. Who does that? He has lost all credibility on this board because he never uses anything to back up his statements. If he can produce an actual piece of data indicating that a site in this region is above normal for the month then I will stand corrected. Either way, it should be negated by the end of the month. If you mean by the end of the month then based off the current guidance most NYC stations (NYC, EWR, LGA, JFK, ISP) will likely finish below. But as of today JFK running a slight positive +0.3, New Brunswick is +0.9, TTN +1.4, MMU +0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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