mob1 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Some of us will finish at least plus 1.5 for June Also I wouldnt put any stock in long range models who flip flop every run There will likely be a decent gradient across the area for monthly temperatures, areas from about Philly SW will be 2+, NYC area about average and then it will be below normal from about Hartford NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Some of us will finish at least plus 1.5 for June Also I wouldnt put any stock in long range models who flip flop every run The ensembles consistently build an east coast trough the last week of June. Most sites will finish below normal or close to average. If you have proof of an above average site I would like to see the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The ensembles consistently build an east coast trough the last week of June. Most sites will finish below normal or close to average. If you have proof of an above average site I would like to see the data. He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model dataHe never uses actual data. Just makes it up as he goes and then hopes nobody calls him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 He never uses actual data. Just makes it up as he goes and then hopes nobody calls him out. But everyone's also assuming the data actually plays out as shown. Just because it signals a trough doesn't mean it will happen that way. +1.5 might be too much but a few +1 readings wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Been very cool in Westchester this week...70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, 77F Wednesday, and 73F today. Modeling has consistently wanted to bring in heat but it continues to be squashed to the south. However a warm front near the area has created quite the gradient...Central Park was close to 80F Mon-Wed while my area was 5-10 degrees cooler... Should see a region wide cool down as the PNA reasserts itself with lower heights dominating in the East. This lines up nicely with the -SOI period modeled, changes in the MJO, and a more Nino-like atmosphere and resultant CONUS pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Miserable day....awful forcast by the local weather outlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Been very cool in Westchester this week...70F Monday, 75F Tuesday, 77F Wednesday, and 73F today. Modeling has consistently wanted to bring in heat but it continues to be squashed to the south. However a warm front near the area has created quite the gradient...Central Park was close to 80F Mon-Wed while my area was 5-10 degrees cooler... Should see a region wide cool down as the PNA reasserts itself with lower heights dominating in the East. This lines up nicely with the -SOI period modeled, changes in the MJO, and a more Nino-like atmosphere and resultant CONUS pattern. Yeah you can have driven the turnpike tuesday from exit 4(93s) to exit 9 (91) to exit 11 (87) to exit 14 (77) to the low 70s north of there. Cooler/wetter overall looks likely now 6/18 - 6/28. Some warm days in there 6/22, 6/24 but looks to overall avg below normal. What happens the last few days of June will determine if we can close June on the plus side. I suspect those north of Middlesex have lost the opportunity and will yield a -1.0 to -2.0 in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Summer time blues (for now?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 looks like those maps would yield average temps-maybe slightly below.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model data Trenton is plus 1.7....so stop staying im making things up...my highs/lows have been similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 He never uses actual data. Just makes it up as he goes and then hopes nobody calls him out. Incorrect...do you dispute my upper 80s and low 90s the past 7 days too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 He must be trolling-no one is finishing +1.5 especially based on model data Does anyone in this forum live in Ttn? I'm still waiting for the heat and humidity he promised...still no 90's at nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Incorrect...do you dispute my upper 80s and low 90s the past 7 days tooStill waiting for the actual data, not your backyard weather station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Trenton is plus 1.7....so stop staying im making things up...my highs/lows have been similar didn't say you were making anything up, but with the cool whether coming later this month, that 1.7 is going to be vaporized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 00z NAM obliterates the area Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Trenton is plus 1.7....so stop staying im making things up...my highs/lows have been similarYour not too far from me and my departure is -1.0 degrees so far based on my stations 30 years of data...What type of station do you have? Temps have been warmer to the sw so I would think your departures are somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Your not too far from me and my departure is -1.0 degrees so far based on my stations 30 years of data...What type of station do you have? He has a warm bias and when it snows he always get the lowest amount/slowest rates. I called him out on many storms last year, as the spotter from Bella Mead is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 00z NAM obliterates the area Sunday.what exactly is "obliterates" mean 1-2"? 2-4" 5"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Does anyone in this forum live in Ttn? I'm still waiting for the heat and humidity he promised...still no 90's at nyc It has hit 90 in NYC just not the park. I think 3 days make up for a large chunk of the difference 6/1, 6/16, 6/17. The difference between C/S-NJ and N-NJ/NYC those days contribute to the current +1 to +2 departures from CNJ south into TTN/Philly. Im in southern Middlesex and have 3 90s and 3 89 days. My station is almost always closer to TTN or EWR than the park. Current departures including today NYC: -0.5 EWR: -0.7 LGA: -1.5 JFK: +0.3 TTN: +1.4 PHL: +2.0 NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Your not too far from me and my departure is -1.0 degrees so far based on my stations 30 years of data...What type of station do you have? Temps have been warmer to the sw so I would think your departures are somewhere in between. Mine is -1.9 through today, about 15-20 miles to your south. Becoming less and less likely I see a warmer than normal June. Will be an impressive gradient up the East Coast. DCA southward has been furnacing this month. Raleigh's had every day in the 95-100F range recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It has hit 90 in NYC just not the park. I think 3 days make up for a large chunk of the difference 6/1, 6/16, 6/17. The difference between C/S-NJ and N-NJ/NYC those days contribute to the current +1 to +2 departures from CNJ south into TTN/Philly. Im in southern Middlesex and have 3 90s and 3 89 days. My station is almost always closer to TTN or EWR than the park. Current departures including today NYC: -0.5 EWR: -0.7 LGA: -1.5 JFK: +0.3 TTN: +1.4 PHL: +2.0 NYC Yeah I've had 3 90F days, 1 89F day, and 1 88F day. We just missed an official heat wave earlier this month (11th-13th). But the first week of June averaged around -10, and lately we've been cooling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Your not too far from me and my departure is -1.0 degrees so far based on my stations 30 years of data...What type of station do you have? Temps have been warmer to the sw so I would think your departures are somewhere in between. I dont have a long enough data set but there have been days I have seen your temps and my area was 3-5 above. Id say from about New Brunswick south has .5 to 1.0 on the positve side of the departures. Today was just atrocious for mid June. The weekend streak looks in serious jeopardy as well. Cant win em all. Perhaps the ridge will rebuild in time for July 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Mine is -1.9 through today, about 15-20 miles to your south. Becoming less and less likely I see a warmer than normal June. Will be an impressive gradient up the East Coast. DCA southward has been furnacing this month. Raleigh's had every day in the 95-100F range recently. BWI: +1.9 DCA: +3.6 RIC:+3.0 RDU: +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I dont have a long enough data set but there have been days I have seen your temps and my area was 3-5 above. Id say from about New Brunswick south has .5 to 1.0 on the positve side of the departures. Today was just atrocious for mid June. The weekend streak looks in serious jeopardy as well. Cant win em all. Perhaps the ridge will rebuild in time for July 4.Yeah there have been quite a few days this month where winds went onshore here but didnt penatrate much further west, hence the higher temps just a short distance to my west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Tomorrow looks like another case of clouds in the way, expect highs lower than projected, 75- 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Glanced at the gfs, haven't look for a while, but yeah there are zero signs of any heat waves from now into early July. Actually it looks like our winter pattern except in summer. Upcoming +PNA/-NAO combo also and I believe a -EPO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Today's scorching highs NYC: 71 EWR: 69 LGA: 71 JFK: 71 ISP: 71 New Brunswick: 68 TTN: 69 PHL: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Does anyone in this forum live in Ttn? I'm still waiting for the heat and humidity he promised...still no 90's at nyc Live 20 mins away from TTN. Was hot last friday, and this tuesday, esp in fire gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yeah I've had 3 90F days, 1 89F day, and 1 88F day. We just missed an official heat wave earlier this month (11th-13th). But the first week of June averaged around -10, and lately we've been cooling again.Usually our stations temps are closer but just one 90 degree temp here(92), and no 88 or 89 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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