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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Saturday looks the warmest this weekend but Friday's showers and 70-degree weather are not particularly summery.

Dropped below 50F again last night with the heat on for about an hour, latest I can ever remember using heat. Should warm into the mid 60s today but still a -10 departure. Troughing continues here in the extended.

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A couple of cold records tied the last few days for early June.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0853 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL
PARK YESTERDAY...

A RECORD MINIMUM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK (NEW
YORK NY)YESTERDAY. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES. THIS TIES
THE 58 DEGREES FOR THE SAME DATE IN 1945.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51 DEGREES WAS TIED AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 51 WAS SET IN 2003.


 
 

 

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yesterday was the seventh coldest June day on record...

max/min/mean...date...

50...48...49.0...6/02/1907

52...48...50.0...6/02/1946

52...49...50.5...6/04/1945

58...44...51.0...6/01/1945

55...47...51.0...6/05/1945

53...50...51.5...6/03/1945

55...50...52.5...6/02/2015

56...50...53.0...6/06/1894

55...52...53.5...6/13/1982

58...49...53.5...6/03/1907

57...50...53.5...6/04/2003

57...50...53.5...6/05/1920

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Nice stats...

 

That was generally a signal for a below average number of 90 degree days for the summer with 1945 being the only exception.

 

Number of 90 degree days NYC:

 

1907....7

1946....9

1945...18

1894...11

1982...11

2003....8

1920....7

1945 had 8 days 90 or higher starting on the 13th and reaching a max of 97 on the 30th...1982's 11 90 degree days happened in a 20 day stretch in July...

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May Finales.

 

 

 

NYC: +6.1

EWR: +5.5

LGA: +4.4

JFK: +3.6

TTN: +5.9

PHL: +6.2

NYC had eight consecutive days 80 or higher to close out the month...I believe it ties the record for consecutive days 80 or higher in May...1991 and 1977 had eight also...

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May Finales.

NYC: +6.1

EWR: +5.5

LGA: +4.4

JFK: +3.6

TTN: +5.9

PHL: +6.2

 

I think the last time NYC had such a strong cold departure followed by a warm one was Dec 89 to Jan 90.

But this year was less dramatic since there were a few months between February and May.

 

Dec 89...-10.3

Jan 90....+9.6

Feb 90....+6.4

Feb 15...-11.4

May 15...+6.1

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Nice stats...

 

That was generally a signal for a below average number of 90 degree days for the summer with 1945 being the only exception.

 

Number of 90 degree days NYC:

 

1907....7

1946....9

1945...18

1894...11

1982...11

2003....8

1920....7

 

2003 was an exceptional year when the park had much less 90 degree days, likely dtue to the wetness.  # 90s was lower than normal but not as low as the NYC (park) # would indicate. 2006 was another year with very low numbers in the park but not so much in the other spots.

 

year..EWR..NYC...LGA...JFK

03.......20.......8.......17........12

06.......26.......8.......22......12

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I think the last time NYC had such a strong cold departure followed by a warm one was Dec 89 to Jan 90.

But this year was less dramatic since there were a few months between February and May.

 

Dec 89...-10.3

Jan 90....+9.6

Feb 90....+6.4

Feb 15...-11.4

May 15...+6.1

Still an amazing swing there.  Wonder if we'll ever see a winter month THAT cold again...that's historic in every sense of the word.

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Still an amazing swing there.  Wonder if we'll ever see a winter month THAT cold again...that's historic in every sense of the word.

 

Yeah, -10's are tough to come by with a big gap in between events.....Jan 77...Dec...89....Feb 15.

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basically a once in every 15-25 year event.

 

It makes me wonder what it will take to get another zero or little lower in NYC since we couldn't do it in February.

But the 2 was still the most impressive low since the 1 in 2004 and -2 in 1994. Dec 17 and Feb 34 were real 

outlier events for dropping below -10. Pipes must have been bursting like crazy during those events.

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It will be interesting to see where guidance winds up - but there are continued hints that heights rise into the east  on/around Jun 15 and beyond potentially.  Until then it looks at or below normal overall with some warm (1-3 days) scattered in between.  The -9 and greater departures look done through then with -5 and near 0's and an occasional +2 or 3. 

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It will be interesting to see where guidance winds up - but there are continued hints that heights rise into the east  on/around Jun 15 and beyond potentially.  Until then it looks at or below normal overall with some warm (1-3 days) scattered in between.  The -9 and greater departures look done through then with -5 and near 0's and an occasional +2 or 3. 

This is not an above average look on the GEFS. The EPS only goes out to hr 240 on Tropical Tidbits however I can tell you from a paid source that it shows a slight trough in East around that range. Not that much can be deciphered from a 300 hr ensemble mean.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_54.png

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