IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Rain tomorrow? All day? Looks like scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon. Not a total washout, unless you believe the NAM hook, line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The Euro jumped on board for heavy rain tomorrow. Over an inch of rain in spots. Must be some elevated instability as CAPE looks less than meh. Lift is focused on a wave of low pressure along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The remnant vorticy passes right over NJ, NYC and then LI on the 12z Euro. Although it gets sheared apart some as it reaches the Eastern Ohio Valley on Saturday night, dew points surge into the upper 60's, lower 70's with about 1250 J/KG of SBCAPE by early Sunday morning. In addition, the mid-level jet cranks right over the area on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like it might rain tonight. Overcast here now with rain over C PA and a few pop up showers over NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like it might rain tonight. Overcast here now with rain over C PA and a few pop up showers over NW NJ.I think its definitly going to rainIt went from a perfect beach day to crappy with a chilly south east wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Tomorrow is starting to look like a problem, although the focus is definitely more towards E PA and Western NJ rather than NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Another terrible whiff for the HRRR which had all of the rain dissipating before reaching Eastern PA. At this rate the rain should be into NNJ within the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 quite a split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 quite a split Almost the inverse of the winter snowfall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Almost the inverse of the winter snowfall pattern. Sucks really, as I'm out hand watering my lawn which is browning. Not even a drop of drizzle today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Sucks really, as I'm out hand watering my lawn which is browning. Not even a drop of drizzle today All the evergreens around here have spots with brown needles and stems. I am hoping the improving rainfall pattern after the record dry May will help them out a bit. It would be nice if the Bill remnants track right across with decent overrunning. We need some payback after Newark jackpotted with the June 1st event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 So whats the deal on tomorrow with the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 All the evergreens around here have spots with brown needles and stems. I am hoping the improving rainfall pattern after the record dry May will help them out a bit. It would be nice if the Bill remnants track right across with decent overrunning. We need some payback after Newark jackpotted with the June 1st event. I think that's from all the salt use over the winter. But yeah some rain will help. What did you call it? Ambrose rain pattern like Ambrose jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 quite a split Not that uncommon in the summer. It's almost a mini-dry season for the coast when storms die out in the marine layer. The last few years have seen more of the exceptions to that rule, i.e. the massive western Suffolk deluge last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I think that's from all the salt use over the winter. But yeah some rain will help. What did you call it? Ambrose rain pattern like Ambrose jet? Many evergreens with brown spots were away from any roadway salting. But the ones near the salting were replaced today since the whole shrub turned brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 Nice start to the day. 63 degrees rain falling in central southern NJ. Looks like we'll get into shower activity pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Dry cool day on tap here, rain looks to be south of NYC and moving out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Highs for the month of June are probably in already. That well advertised model forecast PNA EPO ridge is on track and will get some help from a -NAO. The flattening SE Ridge will allow storms to track across the region from west to east. Only question is if the warm front will set up right over the area or a little south or north. This will be important in determining the exact track of the Bill remnants. We'll probably need to wait until under 48 hrs to have a better idea. June highs so far: NYC....89 LGA....92 EWR...93 if 89 stays as the highest max this month it will become the second year in a row with the first 90 degree day in July...Last year was July 2nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 if 89 stays as the highest max this month it will become the second year in a row with the first 90 degree day in July...Last year was July 2nd... Yeah, models have been backing off a bit on the degree of warm up it had been showing for early next week so that 89 could stand. The long range EPS troughing over the NE also looks like this July 1-2 will lack the extreme heat of last year. Newark started July 2014 with a 95 and 96 degree high. So extreme heat continues to be nowhere to be found in the current long range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Yeah, models have been backing off a bit on the degree of warm up it had been showing for early next week so that 89 could stand. The long range EPS troughing over the NE also looks like this July 1-2 will lack the extreme heat of last year. Newark started July 2014 with a 95 and 96 degree high. So extreme heat continues to be nowhere to be found in the current long range forecasts. who needs extreme heat...upper 80's low 90's are are fine with me... 89 max isn't close to the record low max for June... Coolest max. temperature and year 81 1903 84 2009 84 1886 84 1916 85 1985 86 1928 86 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 who needs extreme heat...upper 80's low 90's are are fine with me... 89 max isn't close to the record low max for June... Coolest max. temperature and year 81 1903 84 2009 84 1886 84 1916 85 1985 86 1928 86 1972 After 2010-2013, people are probably happy to see lower cooling bills during the summer. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46337-newark-30-year-major-heat-day-data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 who needs extreme heat...upper 80's low 90's are are fine with me... 89 max isn't close to the record low max for June... Coolest max. temperature and year 81 1903 84 2009 84 1886 84 1916 85 1985 86 1928 86 1972 Unc, what were some of the latest first 90F readings at Central Park? It's looking increasingly likely that a trough dominates the first week of the month. We might be talking after July 4th for the first 90F this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The Euro jumped on board for heavy rain tomorrow. Over an inch of rain in spots. Must be some elevated instability as CAPE looks less than meh. Lift is focused on a wave of low pressure along the warm front. wow what a bust by the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 After 2010-2013, people are probably happy to see lower cooling bills during the summer. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46337-newark-30-year-major-heat-day-data/ last year we had 1128 cooling degree days...the least amount was 655 set in 1902... most since 1927... 672 in 1927 876 in 2009 873 in 1928 898 in 1950 903 in 1940 908 in 1992 911 in 2000 928 in 1956 938 in 1958 942 in 1946 955 in 1963 982 in 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Unc, what were some of the latest first 90F readings at Central Park? It's looking increasingly likely that a trough dominates the first week of the month. We might be talking after July 4th for the first 90F this year. since 1950... 2014...7/02 1985...7/14 1982...7/08 1972...7/02 1960...7/12 1958...7/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 wow what a bust by the Euro The rain went more towards central and southern NJ which doesn't surprise me because the models were jackpotting Philly yesterday. We should still still a rather substantial period of moderate to heavy rain tonight. The HRRR has a small thunderstorm complex initiating near Buffalo that sustains itself all the way to NYC around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 since 1950... 2014...7/02 1985...7/14 1982...7/08 1972...7/02 1960...7/12 1958...7/01 Interesting. I don't believe it's a coincidence that two of the years are strong el nino's (1982, 1972), and 1958 followed a strong Nino. That July 14th date is extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 This is what the HRRR has for later on tonight. Not saying it is right because it has busted badly in recent times, but this looks to be more than just a hit or miss shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 manhattan hit 90 already... just not the thicket where the asos is located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.