bluewave Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 It looks like the warm front will stall out near the area with the potential for convection and and tropical remnants going forward. The EPS agrees with NAEFS on this type of pattern to close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Some nice thunderstorms could affect us later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 While the SPC has us in a "Marginal" risk for severe today they did leave the door open to increase that in later outlooks. ...ERN OK/OZARKS THROUGH OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SRN NEWENGLAND...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS STORMSDEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THECOLD FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST STATES TO OH VALLEY...WHERE THE AIR MASSREMAINS MOISTURE-LADEN WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. PORTIONS OFTHIS REGION MAY NEED HIGHER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATEROUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE DISCERNMENT OF STRONGERINSTABILITY...PETERS/MOSIER.. 06/16/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Mid way point through 6/15: NYC: -0.4 EWR: -0.3 LGA: -1.3 JFK: +0.1 TTN: +1.4 PHL: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 So much clouds no breaks in sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Some of the area has been upgraded to a slight risk for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Two rounds of storms today per the HRRR. First one around 16-17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 64F here in southern Westchester...forecast high is 82F but we might be too overcast to achieve that. NWS busted yesterday...they had a forecast of 80/65 and we ended up at 70/63, which is about -3F departure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 -2.4 temp departure here for June so far. I'm not seeing how I'll finish more than +0.5 on the month and certainly not +1. Been a very cloudy June overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Thinking we see some sun break through around noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 64F here in southern Westchester...forecast high is 82F but we might be too overcast to achieve that. NWS busted yesterday...they had a forecast of 80/65 and we ended up at 70/63, which is about -3F departure... 65 here. No way are we getting to 80...clouds socked in all the way to SE PA. Upton is always too high with temps in these setups. We'll be lucky to see 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 -2.4 temp departure here for June so far. I'm not seeing how I'll finish more than +0.5 on the month and certainly not +1. Been a very cloudy June overall.Up here, today should be another negative with a split like 73/63 or so...Thursday and Friday look pretty cool with overcast skies on Thursday and a Canadian high building down early this weekend. I still think June can finish below normal and we may not get any 90F days in Central Park.64F here with light rain. No way we make Upton's forecast high of 82F...the warm front dropped south yesterday afternoon and temperatures plunged...hasn't recovered since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sun starting to poke out and build those positives...probably up to plus 2 by the end of the day after another high minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The 00z EPS continued to show the development of a +PNA as we get towards the end of June. That should severely limit any strongly positive departures and allow the month to finish close to or slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 -2.4 temp departure here for June so far. I'm not seeing how I'll finish more than +0.5 on the month and certainly not +1. Been a very cloudy June overall. Your site seems lower than even LGA and parts of LI. Amazing how short distances the anomalies change. Id assume I am closer to New Brunswick/TTN. Has some nice sunny days Jun 8 - 14 period. Yesterday/today much like Jun 1 - 7. Suspect from here on out we go above to much above in the precip department through end of June. Overall still looks bias warm with WAR pumpig southerly flow at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The 12z NAM brings a core of 2.5" PWAT's over NNJ this afternoon as the storms approach from the NW. Someone could get a real downpour, although winds should be around 25-30kts aloft so storm motion should be quicker today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sun starting to poke out and build those positives...probably up to plus 2 by the end of the day after another high minimum Sticky airmass clouds like taffy today more stretching than moving along the coast. But some brightening skies finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sticky airmass clouds like taffy today more stretching than moving along the coast. But some brightening skies finally. Yeah, you can see the lower deck moving northeast..slowly but surely the warm front is moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Up here, today should be another negative with a split like 73/63 or so...Thursday and Friday look pretty cool with overcast skies on Thursday and a Canadian high building down early this weekend. I still think June can finish below normal and we may not get any 90F days in Central Park. 64F here with light rain. No way we make Upton's forecast high of 82F...the warm front dropped south yesterday afternoon and temperatures plunged...hasn't recovered since. Your site seems lower than even LGA and parts of LI. Amazing how short distances the anomalies change. Id assume I am closer to New Brunswick/TTN. Has some nice sunny days Jun 8 - 14 period. Yesterday/today much like Jun 1 - 7. Suspect from here on out we go above to much above in the precip department through end of June. Overall still looks bias warm with WAR pumpig southerly flow at times. Yeah, I think the radiational cooling microclimate differences are partially to blame as well. I had a few very cool nights earlier in the month, one of which was in the middle 40s. Early next week looks to have some heat potential, but 00z guidance is becoming increasingly bullish on the idea of a +PNA induced trough over New England for the last week of June. Heights are progged near to below normal for SE Canada/New England on both the GFS and Euro ensembles. The 850mb 5-day temp anomaly is now projected to be near normal for our area June 25th-30th, and below normal for much of New England. My thinking has been and still is that we'll finish June around 0 to +0.5 or so in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sticky airmass clouds like taffy today more stretching than moving along the coast. But some brightening skies finally. Self destruct day. Already numerous showers and a few storms over E PA moving in our direction. Any sun will add fuel to the fire, but EWR is reporting winds out of the southeast so that's going to greatly limit instability once close to the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yeah, you can see the lower deck moving northeast..slowly but surely the warm front is moving north The warm front is pretty much stalled right over the area and has been since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 -2.4 temp departure here for June so far. I'm not seeing how I'll finish more than +0.5 on the month and certainly not +1. Been a very cloudy June overall.what's your station's period of record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Rgem and the 12z GFS both have a line of storms, with the strongest over NYC and western LI for later this afternoon. Both have intensification near the coast, along the stalled warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Rgem and the 12z GFS both have a line of storms, with the strongest over NYC and western LI for later this afternoon. Both have intensification near the coast, along the stalled warm front. Any SW CT love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Any SW CT love? Yes. Here is 4pm to 7pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yeah, I think the radiational cooling microclimate differences are partially to blame as well. I had a few very cool nights earlier in the month, one of which was in the middle 40s. Early next week looks to have some heat potential, but 00z guidance is becoming increasingly bullish on the idea of a +PNA induced trough over New England for the last week of June. Heights are progged near to below normal for SE Canada/New England on both the GFS and Euro ensembles. The 850mb 5-day temp anomaly is now projected to be near normal for our area June 25th-30th, and below normal for much of New England. My thinking has been and still is that we'll finish June around 0 to +0.5 or so in NYC. GFS ensembles are near normal to slightly below for the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 interesting how warm Canada gets on the ensembles....would seem that there's not really a cool air source going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 what's your station's period of record? I use the averages from the Freehold/Marlboro COOP station for my departures. I've had my station operating since January 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The 00z EPS continued to show the development of a +PNA as we get towards the end of June. That should severely limit any strongly positive departures and allow the month to finish close to or slightly below normal. Not true for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I use the averages from the Freehold/Marlboro COOP station for my departures. I've had my station operating since January 2007.you can't use another station's normals as your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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