Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Up to 60 now the DT central park

DP is 59 in NYC and has been in the upper 50s all day since being in the low 60s the morning.  Heck even JFK dropped 3 degrees to a DP of 58 with a S wind too.  LGA has a DP of 55 down from 62 this morning.

 

The front is down in C NJ or so, so the DPs are not going to rise in the NYC area yet.  Later this evening into tonight they start to rise into the low to mid 60s and stay there per guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will call an unofficial minimums heatwave in NYC since three consecutive lows of 70 or above

is rare before June 15th. The last two occurrences before June 15th were 2013 and 2005.

Before that maybe Uncle has the master list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.HYDROLOGY...

PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE

ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE

DECREASING. THIS IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER ANY

STRONGER CONVECTION. WHAT IS IN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE ANY

LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT HAVE THE REQUIRED 50 PERCENT

CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...BETWEEN 1.25 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS BEING FORECAST

ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST

AMOUNTS OVER NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS

OVER SE CT/E LONG ISLAND. THERE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR

WIDESPREAD MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS

ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...INCLUDING OF SOME FLASHIER

STREAMS/CREEKS IN NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL ADDRESS

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD MINOR

URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE HWO.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THROUGH THE

UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PWATS DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL

FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will call an unofficial minimums heatwave in NYC since three consecutive lows of 70 or above

is rare before June 15th. The last two occurrences before June 15th were 2013 and 2005.

Before that maybe Uncle has the master list.

 Came darn close to 5 in 2008 (Jun 8,9,11,)  June 10 : 69, June 12: 69

 

May 30 - Jun 1, 1991 achieved it,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And with that go the negative departures. Wiped out in about a week. Given we should stay consistently above normal heading forward a +1 to +2 June is very possible again.

 

 

There will be a higher frequency of cool shots for the last week of June as the +PNA rebuilds in concert with the persistent -EPO. Heights should lower over the Lakes/Northeast/SE Canada. So even if we are above normal by D7, I think the near normal (at times cooler than normal) last week of June will keep departures around 0 to +1 for the month in NYC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There will be a higher frequency of cool shots for the last week of June as the +PNA rebuilds in concert with the persistent -EPO. Heights should lower over the Lakes/Northeast/SE Canada. So even if we are above normal by D7, I think the near normal (at times cooler than normal) last week of June will keep departures around 0 to +1 for the month in NYC.

 

Yea - ridge out west over PAC pushes east, back into the west coast and subsequent trough into the Midwest/GL and into NE with ridging hanging on over the coast with periodic cold fronts.  Looks cooler for sure (overall) with more rain/storm chances as fronts have a habbit of slowing down with resistance from the WAR which could build west. Beyond there it will be interesting to see if the ridge fires east of HI and we repeat with trough into the wc and ridge pumping again over the EC.  A sort of back and forth pattern bias warm with humid southerly flow a good part of the time..

 

test8.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...