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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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The 18z NAM brings the line that is currently developing near Buffalo through here tonight. The problem is that it doesn't arrive until after 03z and by then most of the SBCAPE will be gone. If we can get some decent elevated instability to hold on then we might have a chance. The LLJ is forecast to crank a bit around 03z.

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Hard to believe that the record for a day in the middle of June is only 93. 90's for highs in June hardly even seems noteworthy. That's like saying it got down into the teens in the middle of January.

 

Most of the record highs this week were in the mid or even upper 90's at NYC. 93 was the lowest record high. But the whole day was still good for a +10.

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How many 90s does NYC average in June? 2? Haven't had a single one this year..

 

Must be 2 - 3.  But NYC has hit 90 at least twice (May/June) just not the park. SI, Brooklyn, Queens and other parts of the Manhattan hit 90 the last week of May and some yesterday.  This is the issue with the park being the center of weather and perception for the city as a whole.  I dont want to beat a dead horse, as this has been discussed ad nauseam.  But the park is typically 1 - 3 degrees behind the other nearby sites.  IN 2010 it recorded 12 or 13 89 degree days which misrepresented the extent of the heat of other sites which had 45 - 55 09 degree days.  2006 and 2003 were some of the largest discrepencies and when the masses and media report it skews perceptions, in my opinion,

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ECM - really building the ridge next week in the 6/19 - 6/22 period ahead of cold front and trough.  Should guidance be right, this may offer the best chance for some widespread strong heat and possibly heatwave.

 

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