SACRUS Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Newark has seen the more + departures around the region with a +2 and +6 the last few days after a solid negative first week. It's easy to log positive departures now as the normal daily highs are still in the upper 70's on June 10th. NYC, EWR, LGA, JFK, TTN were all +6 yesterday daily vs avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 NYC, EWR, LGA, JFK, TTN were all +6 yesterday daily vs avg. Well..Newark came in just a hair above since its the official furnace of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Well..Newark came in just a hair above since its the official furnace of our area. Got cha. The whole stretch from CNJ into NENJ is the areas warm spot on many occasions. EWR high was a degree from LGA/JFK, New Brunswick yesterday. Back to June - today looks like a gem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Down to 57 for low last night and now up to 70. Feels great out. Clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Latest GFS shows a massive heat wave in the long range after the backdoor front cools us down Monday to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Oh what another top 10 chamber of commerce day...enjoy grubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Up to 73 in the park and 77 here. Mid 80s expected, perhaps even upper 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Upton's got 91 here tomorrow which means mid 90's in the hot spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Upton's got 91 here tomorrow which means mid 90's in the hot spots. 12z NAM has highs of 92 at Philly, Trenton and EWR while Islip sits in the mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 12z NAM has highs of 92 at Philly, Trenton and EWR while Islip sits in the mid 70's. That south wind always kills heat chances there. Depending how people take it, it either sucks or they're thankful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 That south wind always kills heat chances there. Depending how people take it, it either sucks or they're thankful Luckily tomorrow looks to be the most likely day to reach the 90's, and low 90's at that. Dew points however will be in the upper 60's to low 70's so the humidity will be oppressive. If Warlock loves it so much, I suggest we lock him inside of a brazen bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Luckily tomorrow looks to be the most likely day to reach the 90's, and low 90's at that. Dew points however will be in the upper 60's to low 70's so the humidity will be oppressive. If Warlock loves it so much, I suggest we lock him inside of a brazen bull. Lmao yeah definitely. I don't mind a day or 2 of 90/67. That can also help trigger tstorms later in the afternoon as that front gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 That south wind always kills heat chances there. Depending how people take it, it either sucks or they're thankful Water temps are still in the upper 50s. Cold for this time of year. If we didnt have the warm May, it probably would be even colder. I think this will be a big week for warming the Ocean. Once we get a little more humidity in the air, it keeps overnight lows from dropping. Lowest Lows for the next week will be about 62/63. So the ocean should be at least in the low 60's by the end of the weekend I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 With the El Niño-driven high-amplitude MJO having moved into Phase 2, warm anomalies have overspread the East. At the same time, much as occurred in June 1997, the PNA has now gone negative after a long-duration positive regime. June 1997 saw the MJO reach Phase 2 on June 13.On June 16, the PNA went negative, ending a 23-day PNA+ regime. Following the end of the PNA+ period, the PNA remained negative for 19 days (June 16-July 4). During that timeframe, the PNA fell to as low as -2.079. Two days (11%) saw the PNA at or below -2.000 and 11 days (58%) saw the PNA at -1.000 or below. This year, the PNA was positive on 25 out of 26 days during the May 16-June 9 timeframe. The MJO had moved into Phase 2 on June 6, with the PNA's flip to negative occurring four days later. The timing was remarkably close to that of 1997 and in both cases, the MJO was at high-amplitude. In recent days, the GFS ensembles have grown more bullish on the PNA-. The latest forecast shows numerous ensemble members taking the PNA to or below -2.000 for a time. The end result should be that the warmer than normal anomalies that have now arrived in the East should persist, perhaps for at least two weeks or longer. In addition, the Pacific Northwest could turn cooler than normal. Just a few days ago, the GFS ensembles were indicating continued unseasonable warmth there. Now, they should near normal conditions for the June 15-20 and June 20-25 periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 With the El Niño-driven high-amplitude MJO having moved into Phase 2, warm anomalies have overspread the East. At the same time, much as occurred in June 1997, the PNA has now gone negative after a long-duration positive regime. June 1997 saw the MJO reach Phase 2 on June 13.On June 16, the PNA went negative, ending a 23-day PNA+ regime. Following the end of the PNA+ period, the PNA remained negative for 19 days (June 16-July 4). During that timeframe, the PNA fell to as low as -2.079. Two days (11%) saw the PNA at or below -2.000 and 11 days (58%) saw the PNA at -1.000 or below. This year, the PNA was positive on 25 out of 26 days during the May 16-June 9 timeframe. The MJO had moved into Phase 2 on June 6, with the PNA's flip to negative occurring four days later. The timing was remarkably close to that of 1997 and in both cases, the MJO was at high-amplitude. In recent days, the GFS ensembles have grown more bullish on the PNA-. The latest forecast shows numerous ensemble members taking the PNA to or below -2.000 for a time. The end result should be that the warmer than normal anomalies that have now arrived in the East should persist, perhaps for at least two weeks or longer. In addition, the Pacific Northwest could turn cooler than normal. Just a few days ago, the GFS ensembles were indicating continued unseasonable warmth there. Now, they should near normal conditions for the June 15-20 and June 20-25 periods. the euro ens mean shows that pattern to a t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 the euro ens mean shows that pattern to a t We really have't missed any opportunities for massive North Pacific ridging in recent years. The ridiculously resilient ridge has been the common denominator. This version is just a little further west near the Aleutians so it's allowing a more -PNA and stronger ridge over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 We really have't missed any opportunities for massive North Pacific ridging in recent years. The ridiculously resilient ridge has been the common denominator. This version is just a little further west near the Aleutians so it's allowing a more -PNA and stronger ridge over the East. Bodes well for next winter when wavelengths are longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Most models show some activity tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks pretty meager there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I think tomorrow's a non-event for the majority of us. The isolated T-storms that do manage to initiate could become quite strong to potentially severe, but overall, I'm not impressed with the forcing. The weekend is also trending less impressive, but there's time for that one to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 The week of June 15th-22nd should be warmer than normal with potentially the first shot at an official heat wave for the I-95 corridor. I think the last week or so of June will feature a resumption of lower heights in SE Canada as the PNA neutralizes and EPO remains negative. Temperatures in the Northeast should trend back toward normal values for Jun 24th-30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I think tomorrow's a non-event for the majority of us. The isolated T-storms that do manage to initiate could become quite strong to potentially severe, but overall, I'm not impressed with the forcing. The weekend is also trending less impressive, but there's time for that one to change. Starting to look like whatever comes in on Saturday is delayed until after sunset with the low pressure system ending up a lot further North than first predicted a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Starting to look like whatever comes in on Saturday is delayed until after sunset with the low pressure system ending up a lot further North than first predicted a few days ago. Stick a fork in that then, not going to get much without daytime heating this time of year with a cold front. Back to endless dry days IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Stick a fork in that then, not going to get much without daytime heating this time of year with a cold front. Back to endless dry days IMO Plenty of rain chances nearly everyday. Not widespread stuff, but a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Plenty of rain chances nearly everyday. Not widespread stuff, but a threat. Aka inland. Plain and simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Aka inland. Plain and simple Yeah noticed that Islip has only had 3" of rain since april 1st, while to the west at my station we've had close to 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Probably overdone but the 18z NAM has 3500+ J/KG of SBCAPE over NNJ tomorrow afternoon with convection firing right along the boundary. Low to mid 90's with dew points in the lower 70's will create a highly unstable atmosphere if something can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Only got to 82 today in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Probably overdone but the 18z NAM has 3500+ J/KG of SBCAPE over NNJ tomorrow afternoon with convection firing right along the boundary. Low to mid 90's with dew points in the lower 70's will create a highly unstable atmosphere if something can get going. given the heat and time of day, I'd think we'd see a few big cells. While most will see nothing, a few areas could get a nice boomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 85 degree highs here last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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