dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 June stats for KNYC... June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min...1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.51890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.41900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.71910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.11920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.01930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.41940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.11950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.91960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.71970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.01980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.61990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.62000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.5 2010's.....72.6.......95.....51.....92.4.....54.41870/1880-2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.11980-2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6 ............................................................................. warmest average temperature and year.76.2 194375.4 196675.2 199474.6 201074.5 198474.3 192574.3 194974.3 195774.2 197174.1 199174.1 1899coolest64.2 190365.2 188165.7 191666.8 192666.8 190267.2 195867.3 192767.4 192867.5 200967.5 1897wettest June and year10.27 2003 10.10 201310.06 20099.78 19039.30 19728.79 19898.55 20067.76 18877.58 19757.13 19387.05 18717.04 19286.88 1922driest0.02 19490.59 19990.98 18941.00 19011.14 18801.17 19661.25 18981.26 19061.27 19651.27 1908warmest max. temperature and year101 1966101 1934100 195299 192599 194399 195699 1964Coolest max. temperature and year81 190384 200984 188684 191685 198586 192886 1972coolest min. temperature and year44 1945...6/145 1929...6/346 1972...6/1147 1938...6/147 1946...6/347 1945...6/647 1945...6/547 1879...6/747 1915...6/347 1932...6/847 1980...6/9warmest monthly min. temp. and year.58 189258 191158 195258 198158 1989................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Cool start to June on the 18z GFS with the rain Monday-Tuesday, a gradual warm-up later in the week, and then another Canadian high pressure building south by next weekend (6/6).. -EPO will make it hard for any major heat to invade the region. That ridging over AK and Northwest Canada is so persistent and likely to be a major feature this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 My guess will June will stay above average but with much lower relative departures compared to May. I'm thinking between +1 and +2 region wide so a +1.5 on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Ridge and warmth rebuilds on/around 4/th/5th through the 9th before next cold front and trough moves through the area. This is looking like a continuation of an overall warm pattern but no strong or prolonged heat (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The coolest departures for the summer will be late in the season with early season warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 The EPS is now backing off the warmer temps for early June that it was showing just three days ago. Notice how a broad area of ridging that was forecast for the Northeast has been replaced by a trough. 12z 5/28 12z 5/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 Welcome to June everyone! A rather chilly 55 degrees here. More rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The forecast has definitely shifted towards cooler than it was a few days ago. I'm seeing mainly 70s now versus 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The EPS is now backing off the warmer temps for early June that it was showing just three days ago. Notice how a broad area of ridging that was forecast for the Northeast has been replaced by a trough. 12z 5/28 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png 12z 5/31 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8.png The GEFS won this battle. This week is for everyone that refused to acknowledge that a pattern shift was taking place. This should make JM happy. Nearly zero measurable rain in Texas over the next seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 59 right now. Today and tomorrow looks to be a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 The GEFS won this battle. This week is for everyone that refused to acknowledge that a pattern shift was taking place. This should make JM happy. Nearly zero measurable rain in Texas over the next seven days. What battle? The Euro has been showing the same shift to cooler and wetter with the ridge over the East flattening out. The only questions from last week was where the zone of heaviest rains would set up which was refined in the short term forecasts the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 What battle? The Euro has been showing the same shift to cooler and wetter with the ridge over the East flattening out. The only questions from last week was where the zone of heaviest rains would set up which was refined in the short term forecasts the last few days. Go to the May thread. I just pulled 3 of your posts from when you were calling for the dry pattern to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Take the pissing contest to PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Go to the May thread. I just pulled 3 of your posts from when you were calling for the dry pattern to continue. Never called for the dry pattern to continue. I said the bone dry pattern was over and we just need to wait for later runs to see who gets the best rains in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Never called for the dry pattern to continue. I said the bone dry pattern was over and we just need to wait for later runs to see who gets the best rains in the region. I was also told about how bad the GEFS have been when they showed a trough and the EPS was showing a ridge, but that's okay. The bottom line is that the pattern shift has occurred, and next weekend looks stormy as well. Hopefully this is the start of an above average rainfall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I was also told about how bad the GEFS have been when they showed a trough and the EPS was showing a ridge, but that's okay. The bottom line is that the pattern shift has occurred, and next weekend looks stormy as well. Hopefully this is the start of an above average rainfall pattern. You were told that the GFS had been showing feedback problems which was true for the last month where areas south of Long Island were showing too much rain. The Euro agreed with the heavy rain idea which was initially over NNJ but shifted east with the 12z on Sunday to include NYC through Queens. So in instances where the Euro agrees with the GFS you have more confidence than just buying the GFS alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Ridge and warmth rebuilds on/around 4/th/5th through the 9th before next cold front and trough moves through the area. This is looking like a continuation of an overall warm pattern but no strong or prolonged heat (yet). Lower heights look to hang around now for much of the week into next week as the lattest guidance continues to hold off on warmth. Suspect we'll run -2 to -4 below normal now through the 10th. We'll see how things progress and if ridging returns mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Hopefully we can get into some breaks of sun later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 What a difference a day makes. For those who love summer weather, today is a real kick in the midsection NYC: 55F EWR: 56F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I think the month as a whole may finish very close to normal. With each run, modelling is becoming more bullish on the development of a mid level trough over the Lakes. This could be the mean pattern for the summer as well. Not seeing any prolonged heat, or even heat wave opportunities, through mid June. We'll probably see a burst of heat around June 15th-20th per current indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Hopefully we can get into some breaks of sun later this afternoon Not likely to happen, but any sun could add even more fuel to the already blazing fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 What a difference a day makes. For those who love summer weather, today is a real kick in the midsection NYC: 55F EWR: 56F Unfortunately for those of us who like high heat in the summer, I'm afraid we're seeing the summer pattern revealing itself now. The May regime of well above normal looks long gone for the coming weeks. The good news is I think convective opportunities will be numerous this summer given the trough / ridge orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vayStill waiting for that rain down here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vay Guidance has trended into lingering lower heights into the east thru D10 with only a few bursts of warmth scattered in. We will need to rely on the WAR building west to get sustained heat. I want warmth more than anyone - but the signal is bare at the moment, although I do suspect we beat last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Not likely to happen, but any sun could add even more fuel to the already blazing fire. Rainman, Depends on where but look at the loop and you cans see breaks and brightening skies pushing into EPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vay My assessment of the summer pattern isn't based upon one day of rain. Read my summer outlook thread if you're actually interested in reading the reasoning that led to certain conclusions. I know you want a brutally hot / dry summer, but we have to be objective and scientific here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.