Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I always form conclusions about thunderstorm activity in the early afternoon, because I'm also a moron. if you look at the RAP and HRRR they have really cut back. The window is also shorter as most activity is done by 6-7pm as drier air works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 if you look at the RAP and HRRR they have really cut back. The window is also shorter as most activity is done by 6-7pm as drier air works in. Why don't we let peak heating happen and watch the interaction of the small cells moving toward Newark with the seabreeze front before we call the whole thing off, shall we? As much as I enjoy hugging models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 what are models esp the euro showing for timing on this? The Euro shows rain moving in between 12z and 18z on Sunday with showers persisting into Tuesday night. Heaviest rains look to be Sunday night and then again on Monday. Some of the modeling want to develop one or more waves of low pressure along the front enhancing everything. Then on Wednesday showers are nearbye but the Euro is mainly dry for this area. Highs might be stuck in the low 60's on Monday. The GFS and GGEM both match up pretty well. I think most areas are good for at least 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Lol totally fell apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Lol totally fell apart Have you checked the radar? Nice looking cells over the E LHV and Central and Southern NJ. Just not in your backyard. In fact looks like some training setting up between High Point, NJ and the NY/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Have you checked the radar? Nice looking cells over the E LHV and Central and Southern NJ. Just not in your backyard. The HRRR and RAP totally busted with this event. They both had heavy activity in our immediate area from 2pm to 4pm. Rgem was never impressed with this and just like yesterday, it has nailed another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Bro. The HRRR and RAP totally busted with this event. They both had heavy activity in our immediate area from 2pm to 4pm. I don't look at the RAP and I never saw an HRRR run that had widespread activity. Either way, have you checked the KDIX radar recently. Not widespread but where the storms are, they look decent and more are developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I don't look at the RAP and I never saw an HRRR run that had widespread activity. Either way, have you checked the KDIX radar recently. Not widespread but where the storms are, they look decent and more are developing. Those are popocorn weak storms in NJ. The real storms are way north and into Mid-HV and Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Those are popocorn weak storms in NJ. The real storms are way north and into Mid-HV and Mass. Well that's why we're on the southern edge of the watch. Shear is meager down here and the SBCAPE is skinny. I'm surprised we're even included in the watch IMHO. Also the mid-level lapse rates are weak, even for our standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Those are popocorn weak storms in NJ. The real storms are way north and into Mid-HV and Mass. that seems like a trend this season-best dynamics are ending up well north of where they are modeled. - early runs of the HRRR had us all getting into the action. instead we get isolated popcorn/garden variety stuff and 95% of the area is high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 totally dry inland here..Yesterday we ended up with .13 ..was under a severe thunderstorm watch..enough rain to wet the ground for a few minutes and that was it...lasted about 2-3 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 There are some nice cells up in western New England and the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Have you checked the radar? Nice looking cells over the E LHV and Central and Southern NJ. Just not in your backyard. In fact looks like some training setting up between High Point, NJ and the NY/CT border. Yes at 2 and it totally disappeared like Houdini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yes at 2 and it totally disappeared like Houdini Check it again http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Even with it being as dry as it has been, flash flood warning FLASH FLOOD WARNINGCTC001-NYC079-282300-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0001.150528T2007Z-150528T2300Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY407 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 700 PM EDT* AT 407 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCINGHEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TOBEGIN SHORTLY.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...DANBURY...BREWSTER...LAKE CARMEL...MAHOPAC...CARMEL...BETHEL...CARMEL HAMLET...BREWSTER HILL...CHIMNEY POINT...PUTNAM LAKE ANDPEACH LAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOODDEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOUCAN DO SO SAFELY.&&LAT...LON 4152 7344 4150 7344 4150 7342 4139 73344136 7384 4142 7385 4147 7378 4149 73694150 7359 4155 7346$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The models always had the strongest cells north of NYC today. But when the HRRR and Euro updated they ended up a little more north. Yesterday was well forecast also with the convection progged to weaken when exiting NJ and running into the more stable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Check it again http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Once that western edge in mid-Jersey clears the coast, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Danbury getting crushed-training storms right along I84. Meanwhile 20 miles south where I am it's sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Once that western edge in mid-Jersey clears the coast, it's over. What are you arguing about? It's been well modeled to end by 7-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Danbury getting crushed-training storms right along I84. Meanwhile 20 miles south where I am it's sunny The 12z Euro nailed that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The 12z Euro nailed that spot. of course it did-model is awesome. - Hoping the tail end of that train can swing through here, it's moving SE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 That line southeast of Morristown is in a perfect spot to hit the city if it hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 The 18z NAM is also trending stormier for Saturday night across Western sections. We'll have to see if this trend continues tomorrow and if any of the higher skilled models pick up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 South Shore of Staten Island getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Right mover on radar now. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY455 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015CTC001-NYC119-282115-/O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150528T2115Z/FAIRFIELD CT-WESTCHESTER NY-455 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDTFOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AT 455 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLEOF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER RIDGEFIELD...OR NEAR DANBURY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...BETHEL AND GEORGETOWN AROUND 505 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PEACHLAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO ANINTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVYRAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATERCOVERS THE ROAD.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODEDROADWAYS.&&LAT...LON 4133 7330 4122 7339 4131 7365 4136 73654137 7355 4140 7354TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 292DEG 17KT 4131 7348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 warning now in effect for parts of Fairfield Cty CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 That cell might cross the sound and hit the north shore of Suffolk if it makes it across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Damn Danbury is just getting pounded on right now while the line that was to our west just disintegrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Check it again http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Didnt need to...dry as a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Didnt need to...dry as a bone Again, your backyard isn't representative of the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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