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Severe Threat 5/27-5/28 and heavy rain threat 5/30-6/1


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most of the day would be rain free if that verifies.

It has lots of scattered activity before that. The short term high res models have been busting badly. Nothing really had a great handle on what occured overnight in PA and NJ and 12z NAM basically shows a rain hole right where the rains are currently falling. Rainfall rates of 1"+ per hour currently approaching Plainfield. 

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It has lots of scattered activity before that. The short term high res models have been busting badly. Nothing really had a great handle on what occured overnight in PA and NJ and 12z NAM basically shows a rain hole right where the rains are currently falling. Rainfall rates of 1"+ per hour currently approaching Plainfield. 

they must focus new rain development on the front once daytime heating kicks on-every model has 2-4 inches for the entire subforum today/tonight/tomorrow am. 

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they must focus new rain development on the front once daytime heating kicks on-every model has 2-4 inches for the entire subforum today/tonight/tomorrow am. 

Yes, all of the modeling has heavy rain develop after 18z and cross the area, persisting until the early morning hours. Someone could easily pick up an inch or two in this scattered convection before then. 

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Got some real heavy rain over night...well over 2 inches for the event. Sharp cutoff to my south and west. Isotherms how much do you have? Parents in Holmdel said not much

 

 

0.33" Going to be very disappointing if we get < 1" for the event. Lawn's just about dead.

 

Little concerned today we're too far north after being too far south yesterday. Cool/foggy in the 50s now.

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