IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I'm on the eastern end of the watch...doubt we see much here as winds are roaring out of the south bringing a stable marine layer to here and LI-good luck to those NYC and west where there's the best chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 I'm on the eastern end of the watch...doubt we see much here as winds are roaring out of the south bringing a stable marine layer to here and LI-good luck to those NYC and west where there's the best chance IMO The models have consistently shown the front getting hung up West of the Hudson. You can see how slowly it's currently progressing on radar. Tomorrow is the better chance East of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 decent t-storm line formed out in Pennsylvania. Should hold together for western sections of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Parameters look solid enough for storms to hold together up to the Hudson, but not tremendous support for severe. Shear is pretty tame, CAPE is okay at 2000 j/kg or so but not great, LI is around -5. Tornado and hail probs are quite low. These parameters drop off a cliff once east of Manhattan, so there's little support for these holding together in the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Cell forming northeast of Plainfield. Line looks solid, getting closer to the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 To give an idea of what is needed for a big severe outbreak, we've had outbreaks this year in TX with CAPE over 5000, LI down to -11, and shear over 60kt. Today CAPE is up to 6000 near Childress, TX, with a LI of -10, and 35kt shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 To give an idea of what is needed for a big severe outbreak, we've had outbreaks this year in TX with CAPE over 5000, LI down to -11, and shear over 60kt. Today CAPE is up to 6000 near Childress, TX, with a LI of -10, and 35kt shear. I plan on going chasing in the plains within the next couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Parameters look solid enough for storms to hold together up to the Hudson, but not tremendous support for severe. Shear is pretty tame, CAPE is okay at 2000 j/kg or so but not great, LI is around -5. Tornado and hail probs are quite low. These parameters drop off a cliff once east of Manhattan, so there's little support for these holding together in the marine layer. I have not seen a severe thunderstorm in around 3 years. Mostly get heavy rains, gusty winds, loud thunder, cloud to ground lighting etc. Weenies tend to call strong t storms severe in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Pulse type storms starting to fire. Nice one just south of Troy Hills. Had about 20 drops here in Wood Ridge. Only 0.46" for the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I plan on going chasing in the plains within the next couple of yearsThis is the time of year when the main threat for tornadoes shifts north from TX and OK into NE/KS and into the Midwest. This year though, who knows. Several tornado warnings are out now in KS, we already had one not far from me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 This is the time of year when the main threat for tornadoes shifts north from TX and OK into NE/KS and into the Midwest. This year though, who knows. Several tornado warnings are out now in KS, we already had one not far from me today. I will never chase in OK as it seems like a nightmare. Kansas/Nebraska would be my ideal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 southern end of the line is pretty narrow and run of the mill-folks will be lucky to get .10-.25 from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Flash and thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 CAPE is dropping as the storms come into NJ, I think most will be disappointed if expecting severe. Expect heavy rain and a decent wind gust or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 southern end of the line is pretty narrow and run of the mill-folks will be lucky to get .10-.25 from this Pretty much as forecasted to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Loud rolling thunder in Ramsey with blue skies overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Secondary line forming now in Western NJ well ahead of the main front. Great job by the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Secondary line forming now in Western NJ well ahead of the main front. Great job by the HRRR. Was just thinking is that a second line forming? Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Slowing down here, only two rumbles of thunder through the whole thing. Someone in Rockland County could get a decent show from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Slowing down here, only two rumbles of thunder through the whole thing. Someone in Rockland County could get a decent show from it. Check out the radar, plenty upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to. Yeah its 83 here while its 64 at JFK last time i checked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to. It was 76 here a couple house ago and 66 on the bay in my town. Dropped 4 degrees in the last hour. It's 71 here and 65 right on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 only 73 here with a strong south wind. I'll be lucky to get a sprinkle out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I want to enjoy the show on my commute back to Rockland from the city around 6! Still going to be going strong then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 It's been a long time since warnings were so spread out across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Just a downpour and thats all..radar really fell apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Just a downpour and thats all..radar really fell apartNot much of a surprise. Not too great a trigger for widespread strong storms. Looks like there were a couple of warnings here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 just a rain shower in my backyard. enough rain to make the roads wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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