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Severe Threat 5/27-5/28 and heavy rain threat 5/30-6/1


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I'm on the eastern end of the watch...doubt we see much here as winds are roaring out of the south bringing a stable marine layer to here and LI-good luck to those NYC and west where there's the best chance IMO

The models have consistently shown the front getting hung up West of the Hudson. You can see how slowly it's currently progressing on radar. Tomorrow is the better chance East of NYC.

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Parameters look solid enough for storms to hold together up to the Hudson, but not tremendous support for severe. Shear is pretty tame, CAPE is okay at 2000 j/kg or so but not great, LI is around -5. Tornado and hail probs are quite low. These parameters drop off a cliff once east of Manhattan, so there's little support for these holding together in the marine layer.

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To give an idea of what is needed for a big severe outbreak, we've had outbreaks this year in TX with CAPE over 5000, LI down to -11, and shear over 60kt. Today CAPE is up to 6000 near Childress, TX, with a LI of -10, and 35kt shear.

I plan on going chasing in the plains within the next couple of years

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Parameters look solid enough for storms to hold together up to the Hudson, but not tremendous support for severe. Shear is pretty tame, CAPE is okay at 2000 j/kg or so but not great, LI is around -5. Tornado and hail probs are quite low. These parameters drop off a cliff once east of Manhattan, so there's little support for these holding together in the marine layer.

 

I have not seen a severe thunderstorm in around 3 years.

Mostly get  heavy rains, gusty winds, loud thunder, cloud to ground lighting etc.

 

Weenies tend to call strong t storms severe in our area.

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I plan on going chasing in the plains within the next couple of years

This is the time of year when the main threat for tornadoes shifts north from TX and OK into NE/KS and into the Midwest. This year though, who knows. Several tornado warnings are out now in KS, we already had one not far from me today.
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This is the time of year when the main threat for tornadoes shifts north from TX and OK into NE/KS and into the Midwest. This year though, who knows. Several tornado warnings are out now in KS, we already had one not far from me today.

I will never chase in OK as it seems like a nightmare. Kansas/Nebraska would be my ideal situation.

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The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to.

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The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to.

Yeah its 83 here while its 64 at JFK last time i checked

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The diffrence in temps and conditions between the south shore and Manhattan today are enormous. It was windy foggy/low clouds and mid 60s there sunny 80s in the city. We should have a text book line collapse once east of Manhattan. Hoping to at least get a downpour here on campus to water the planters so I don't have to.

It was 76 here a couple house ago and 66 on the bay in my town. Dropped 4 degrees in the last hour. It's 71 here and 65 right on the water.

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