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Summer 2015 General Thunderstorm Thread


powderfreak

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I'm surprised from the AFD that they're pegging western areas for the highest chance of strong/severe.  Based on timing and influx of dry air, I'd have anticipated the higher chances east.

 

Of course, being in the 'favored areas' this year has been the kiss of death with respect to severe.

 

I mean as of right now, the convection allowing models like things east a bit. Probably based on timing with respect to the front, might just be too early as it currently stands for western areas.

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I mean as of right now, the convection allowing models like things east a bit. Probably based on timing with respect to the front, might just be too early as it currently stands for western areas.

 

That was my take.  The AFD suggests otherwise.

 

Pretty much the classic New England set up of shear/lift offset from best instability.

 

Hopefully, winter won't be as boring.

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I'm liking NH tomorrow (at least central/southern) and of course central and eastern New England.  One thing that sucks further west is it looks like a pre-frontal trough pushes through between 15z and 18z and this is before we would be able to achieve maximum instability and shear is not really maximized yet either.  As far as instability is concerned though with crappy lapse rates we can only go so high anyways.  

 

It's interesting to see though that the NAM isn't the only model showing a slightly backed llvl wind field...even the GFS has some elevated 0-3km helicity going on and shear does increase as the day goes on.  

 

Could see a few wet microbursts tomorrow and maybe even a few ~1'' hail reports, especially if the helicity pans out and a few discrete cells fire up.  

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1141 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015  

 

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  

   

..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND  

 

   

..SUMMARY  

 

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  

ENGLAND.  

   

..SYNOPSIS  

 

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW  

FILLING ACROSS ERN CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND SWD INTO  

THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH  

DEVELOPING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. A GENERALLY  

WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL AID IN  

DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED  

THUNDERSTORMS.  

 

ELSEWHERE...DAYTIME STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL  

CAROLINAS SWD INTO FL ALONG THE SWD EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC  

TROUGH...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK SHEAR.  

   

..SRN NEW ENGLAND  

 

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WEAK SFC TROUGH BY  

AFTERNOON AS HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR. MID TO UPPER  

LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER  

TROUGH...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL BE NEUTRAL. AS SUCH...ONLY  

A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH BOTH  

HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SFC PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  

SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TORNADO THREAT DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF  

SUPERCELL STORM MODE AT TIMES.  

 

..JEWELL.. 08/24/2015  

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