CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Might be some decent storms Tuesday. GFS has good lapse rates. NAM not as much, but a signal for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Sounds intriguing... MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Taken verbatim, NAM parameters support a severe threat across Vermont and eastern New York Monday afternoon, possibly extending into northwestern Massachusetts? The shear pattern becomes more unidirectional northeast of there, but the usual low-level backing from the Hudson Valley to Connecticut River should apply. Anyway, the forecast soundings look most impressive across the capital district (Albany) and southern Vermont. NAM forecast sounding for Springfield, VT at 6 p.m.: A corridor of moderate instability is progged to coincide with 30-40kts of bulk shear and backing low-level winds to setup along and just ahead of an approaching front from eastern New York into northwestern New England. Forcing and shear become marginal to weak further south and east into southern New England: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Lake Winni FTW tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Clouds were threatening to north of long lake, but we got nothing. Was ascending North Crocker from South Crocker when line of storms came thru...descended and waited it out. We got rain and lighting but from sounds of it much worth to northeast maybe in the Bigelow range? Moved in very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 not sure what this will mean for this threat but ... things are decelerating through the short term (hour 72). trough amplifying through the Lakes and associated mid level wind max(s) drill a cold front into western NY/PA tomorrow ... but then 24 hours later, the fronts just limping through on Tuesday. Threat may convert to training QPF bombs on that day, as the convergence zone along the front parallels the flow. One thing I like about Monday (late afternoon) is the geometric difluence in the mid levels, while right entrance jet approaches NW zones. The thing is ... there may be a poorly sampled warm boundary in the area during the time from (4-8pm) and that could all be a recipe for an unexpected right turner or two. Also, active day with thunder/embedded severe in clusters ripping through the UP of MI... I'm wondering if these may organize into an MCS of sorts later. We already have a SW flow taking over so if there is a llj to feed off later. DPs are near and above 65 F S of the midriff of Michigan and the 24 correlation seems a decent fit here. That higher theta E axis should pivot E over night with SW flow coming in under west winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Traveling from Stowe, VT to ALB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Hope to intercept some good storms. Looks like that area from VT into eastern NY may be rocking tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I'll keep an eye on the sky tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Traveling from Stowe, VT to ALB tomorrow afternoon/evening. Hope to intercept some good storms. Looks like that area from VT into eastern NY may be rocking tomorrow afternoon. I find driving in a storm to really be an underwhelming experience. I prefer to be at home huddled under my shawl. It would be great if we can get something decent during the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Nice severe event in Michigan and the Lakes Region today...should be fun tomorrow here in the east. Gradient winds out there have been impressive, too....like Lansing, Michigan has been gusting over 40mph with temps in the low 90s. Lots of sustained winds in the 25-35mph range and gusts 35-45mph out ahead of the FROPA with temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. That must feel like getting hit in the face with a hairdryer. 46mph gradient wind gust at 91F. KLAN 022053Z 23022G29KT 10SM CLR 33/17 A2968 AO2 PK WND 22040/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 I find driving in a storm to really be an underwhelming experience. I prefer to be at home huddled under my shawl. It would be great if we can get something decent during the overnight. Yeah but it makes a 3-4 hour drive more interesting if you can run into some weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Hot, humid and sunny in Albany. Great setup for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Looks like about 200 people live in that warning I just issued. Caratunk crusher, Moscow mauler. (And 0.03" at my place - evaded both the Somerset and Kennebec events.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Severe warning issued in Albany. Looks fairly weak on radar so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Severe warning issued in Albany. Looks fairly weak on radar so far... Yep...ALY saying it looks pretty good on radar. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK... SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK... * UNTIL 315 PM EDT * AT 227 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BERNE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF COBLESKILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BERNE AROUND 235 PM EDT. DELANSON AROUND 245 PM EDT. DUANESBURG AND ALTAMONT AROUND 250 PM EDT. VOORHEESVILLE AROUND 255 PM EDT. GUILDERLAND AROUND 300 PM EDT. ALBANY...ROTTERDAM AND ROTTERDAM JUNCTION AROUND 305 PM EDT. COLONIE AND SCOTIA AROUND 310 PM EDT. SCHENECTADY...NISKAYUNA...EAST GLENVILLE AND ALPLAUS AROUND 315 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Hoping round 2 is better than round 1. You guys east of the NY border are in for some fun very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Nice cell moving towards Albany, looks to have some nice rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vhfan52 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 Did not get a chance to post last couple of days but South of Boston DID get some good thunder and very vivid cloud to ground strikes on Tuesday morning. So the streak has been broken. Later that day parts of Metrowest and MetroBoston actually got some hail that raised some insurance premiums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Just heard thunder looked out looks like a nice storm forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Severe thunderstorm warning out for Addison County VT Iinto southern Orange and northern Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Saw the clouds building and checked the radar. Big cell just a bit south dropping some hail. Hoping to get wet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Hate convection this year. Hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Storm blew up overhead here mid practice at merrimack. Svr warned now. Vivid lightning, a little gusty wind. Pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillHarding Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Nice storm came through Albany this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Broad rotation aloft in boxford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Storms popping all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Coastalwx has one forming overhead as we speak. Nevermind i guess no lightning in that cell? I have had about 5 strikes in the area here in scituate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Pelted with peas at market basket in Swanzey- keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 I'm at the stadium in Lowell. Spinners game delayed due to hell of a lightning show....what is the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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