Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Tons of lightning from that stationary storm over Ginx house. Prob a couple inches of rain for his pool too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 We not Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan 13 mins · Scattered thunderstorms today could drop a lot of rain in a few towns. I'm hoping my town is one of them because it's been awfully dry lately! What's your JJ rain total? It's 6.62" for TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 What's your JJ rain total? It's 6.62" for TAN. June was wet..July has been exact opposite. Under 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 June was wet..July has been exact opposite. Under 5 inches Haven't had much here since 7/1 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I could buy those models too..although BTV WRF at times has been aggressive. Agree. This might sound kind of stupid and obvious but I don't ever take one individual run of any meso model particularly seriously. At times you will catch me looking and posting about every run but blending the trends/consensus in your head is my goal. It seems like everything slowly transitions north today as the day goes on. Seabreeze boundary over the east could affect things and amplify a cell or two. Pretty much everyone should rain today. Some models like right along the pike particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Tons of lightning from that stationary storm over Ginx house. Prob a couple inches of rain for his pool toomeh .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 We got rocked. Couple of level 3 booms at 2am. No warning either. Usually you hear a few early booms to let you know it was incoming. Terrible on the rain content though. .18, Irrigation still came on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems like some seabreeze stuff may help as well. I dunno..looks like one of those days with scattered random stuff. Tough to pin down best spots. Eh, I wouldn't roll with every run of that model. My take, is that any subtle boundary may ignite a few storms...sometimes even terrain helps. HMMM...interesting WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS. ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 These storms are going to pack a surprise for someone west of BOS a dozen or so miles inland. I could see a storm really going bonkers and taking advantage of the boundary. Wind fields are weak so that means the coast can and prob will seabreeze. Interior should be unstable. Weaker shear can be intensified into something slightly more meaningful. Localized flooding is possible for someone. Peabody saw a lot yesterday and more overnight so hopefully not there. But they should be on the marine side of the boundary. We have a habit of drooling over parameters and EML's and mid level lapse rates but ignoring events when they are not particularly high. In E Mass the high shear days almost often leave us out of the picture because when we maximize shear in SNE the winds are S and SSE or SE and the west sees TOR warnings, but we see a marine layer that inhibits and destroys CU. What we have today is something marginal, but almost certain. I'll take that over spending an entire day with 2-3k cape and never breaking through the cap while I sweat my balls off for nothing for the Berks to see a SVR storm/I get my hopes up for elevated instability overnight that never delivers. I'd consider one lightning strike today a victory. I went to Fort Lauderdale for a week and didn't even see that the week of July 4. Saharan dust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Agree. This might sound kind of stupid and obvious but I don't ever take one individual run of any meso model particularly seriously. At times you will catch me looking and posting about every run but blending the trends/consensus in your head is my goal. It seems like everything slowly transitions north today as the day goes on. Seabreeze boundary over the east could affect things and amplify a cell or two. Pretty much everyone should rain today. Some models like right along the pike particularly. I take the mesos as an ensemble in my head. It gives me an idea of how the evolution may be..and potential areas to highlight. I find that as a good way of getting the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Just give me a little thunder and a little lightning I'm not expecting a 6/1/11 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I take the mesos as an ensemble in my head. It gives me an idea of how the evolution may be..and potential areas to highlight. I find that as a good way of getting the picture. Yeah, exactly. I've found RAP to be pretty much useless so far this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Ground zero is going to be N RI again up to ORH and maybe as far east as BOS..West of there won';t be much other than a downpour scattered around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 71/67 - Thunderstorm - Occasional Torrential Rain - Calm wind. .93 since the storms began about an hour ago. Very intense lightning and close loud thunder. Seems the storms are developing near or directly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Greenfield down to Hartford, Lawrence to Providence, envision a box. That's the area to watch today I think Kev so we aren't far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 HMMM...interesting WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE AT LEAST PEAKS OF SUN IN THIS REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL ASSIST IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ITS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN AN AREA THAT HAS A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS. ALSO MAYBE SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. It's good to see them coming around to my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 It's good to see them coming around to my thinking. It's so obvious they just took your thoughts and put them in the AFD update lol. I mean blatant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I caught this last night from Colchester, VT (BTV airport is the lights you see with the tower on the lower right). The thunderstorm was 50 miles or so to the south-southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 You have a bit of forcing aloft in the form of deformation and frontogenesis too. Looking at the 700 and 500mb fields on meso-analysis, you can see why the band is stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Greenfield down to Hartford, Lawrence to Providence, envision a box. That's the area to watch today I think Kev so we aren't far off. Other than those terrain induced showers now in Mass..I don't see HFD to Green field getting too much action. Today has an east look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 It's so obvious they just took your thoughts and put them in the AFD update lol. I mean blatant LOL, no they didn't. It's just one of those setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 non-stop thunder / lightning here all morning, raining like a cow pi$$ing on a flat rock now, noah's ark type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 LOL, no they didn't. It's just one of those setups. Dude..read your series of posts this morning and then read what they wrote..It's almost word for word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 non-stop thunder / lightning here all morning, raining like a cow pi$$ing on a flat rock now, noah's ark type stuff You guys have had like 10 hrs of on and off tstms. Pretty impressive, and not much forcing either. Just a bit of convergence and some forcing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 71/67 - Thunderstorm - Occasional Torrential Rain - Calm wind. .93 since the storms began about an hour ago. Very intense lightning and close loud thunder. Seems the storms are developing near or directly overhead. nice training going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Other than those terrain induced showers now in Mass..I don't see HFD to Green field getting too much action. Today has an east look to it I love how you do this every summer. Non-stop whining about how you've gotten shut out from rain. These setups are almost always hit or miss and summer is notorious for several weeks of dry interspersed with heavy downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Congrats South Coast. Just getting pummeled this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I love how you do this every summer. Non-stop whining about how you've gotten shut out from rain. These setups are almost always hit or miss and summer is notorious for several weeks of dry interspersed with heavy downpours.Some summers our area gets storm after storm.. Some years just a few. It's always hit or miss. But never a summer of none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Congrats South Coast. Just getting pummeled this AM. it's just insane down there...epic training...do you know what that left over convergence boundary is from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 it's just insane down there...epic training...do you know what that left over convergence boundary is from? There is a s/w too. It's unstable aloft, so even a weak LLJ convering on land or just running into a weak diffuse front can do it. In the summer...the atmosphere can be unstable aloft, so a mouse fart can ignite a CB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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