dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Surprised there's no FFW up for that cell east of Middlebury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Surprised there's no FFW up for that cell east of Middlebury.There was. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ018&warncounty=VTC001&firewxzone=VTZ018&local_place1=3%20Miles%20ESE%20Granville%20VT&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning&lat=43.9697&lon=-72.7921#.VbWgodm9LTo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Storms popping up over eastern mass now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 1030 PM UPDATE...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AT THE SURFACE.BUT THAT IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO STOP THE SHOW. AS DERIVED FROM THESPC MESOANALYSIS WE ARE STILL BENEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSUREWITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATDISPOSAL OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG. SHEAR IS WEAK OR HARDLY PRESENT. THEFOCUS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OFSCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER LIFT WITHIN THE LOW- TOMID-LEVELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN BE GENERATED. PERHAPS SOMEOROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING TO THE CAUSE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREAROUND 6C/KM SUBSEQUENTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THUS SOME CORESCOULD GET QUITE UP THERE WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13 KFT WITH THE -10 / -20C AT 19 AND 23 KFTRESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS IS HEAVY RAINAND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONSIDERING THE LIGHT MEAN WIND FLOWTHROUGH THE LAYER. ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LIGHTNING. SOMESECONDARY THREATS POSSIBLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH SHEARBEING SO WEAK...WITH ANY HAIL IT WILL BE SMALL. UPDRAFTS LIKELYNOT TO SUSTAIN.OTHERWISE A MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS DOWN INTO THE 60SAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS CONSIDERING THEANTECEDANT RAINS OF EARLIER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW- TOMID-60S. ANYWHERE WHERE IT CAN CLEAR OUT EVER BRIEFLY WITH THELIGHT SURFACE WINDS MAY RESULT IN QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT.NEAR-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE USED WITH THIS FORECAST BUT BLENDEDWITH SREF PROBABILITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE. IT IS ANYONES GUESS ASTO WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. BEST THING TO CONVEY IS THECHANCE AND THE POTENTIAL THREATS.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MONDAY...REMNANT BOUNDARY /PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WEAKENING/ DRIFTS INTO OURAREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUETO KEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDAND UPPER 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON.THE INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIED BY THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL ALLOWFOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS.WITH THE MEAN WIND FLOW AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE W...THREATSCONSIDERED ARE HEAVY RAIN / MARGINAL HAIL / PERHAPS STRONG TODAMAGING WINDS FROM PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION /WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT/.POTENTIAL LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WARM ANDHUMID WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 More and more rain for peabody Beverly salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Nice light show rolling into boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Very impressive core on these for night time in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Getting pummeled by this line. Lots of CG lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Yeah lots of lightning to my southeast. SE MA wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Yeah lots of lightning to my southeast. SE MA wins again. Shocking. You see anything that says interior areas can get some storms/downpours today or is all the same areas that have been pounded all summer from you SE and NW Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Shocking. You see anything that says interior areas can get some storms/downpours today or is all the same areas that have been pounded all summer from you SE and NW Mass? I didn't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I didn't get anything. But you have much of the summer. But anyway..any thoughts on what today brings? BOX seems to think activity shifts interior..but why would that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 But you have much of the summer. But anyway..any thoughts on what today brings? BOX seems to think activity shifts interior..but why would that happen? No convection though, and not much more than you. Anyways, I'll look when I get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems like some seabreeze stuff may help as well. I dunno..looks like one of those days with scattered random stuff. Tough to pin down best spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Seems like some seabreeze stuff may help as well. I dunno..looks like one of those days with scattered random stuff. Tough to pin down best spots. Basically.."Kevin..fire up the sprinkler again" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Basically.."Kevin..fire up the sprinkler again" LOL. I'm going to mow the lawn today. Hopefully a shower might come through after I'm done. That might help heading into the couple warmer days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 HRRR crushes N RI up to ORH and then rolls that complex up thru Boston later in the day. Also NW CT up thru W Mass again with storms..but it misses most of CT save far NE CT. Tomorrow's a new day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 HRRR crushes N RI up to ORH and then rolls that complex up thru Boston later in the day. Also NW CT up thru W Mass again with storms..but it misses most of CT save far NE CT. Tomorrow's a new day Eh, I wouldn't roll with every run of that model. My take, is that any subtle boundary may ignite a few storms...sometimes even terrain helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 nice light show here last night. local backyard station (closest to my backyard) says we picked up .8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Eh, I wouldn't roll with every run of that model. My take, is that any subtle boundary may ignite a few storms...sometimes even terrain helps.nam and btv wrf have been best at sniffing out the general idea this summer. Hrrr nearly useless until a few hrs before event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 more thunder , nice shelf cloud moving in now with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 nam and btv wrf have been best at sniffing out the general idea this summer. Hrrr nearly useless until a few hrs before event. I could buy those models too..although BTV WRF at times has been aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Ginx has been crushed all morning. More posts about lush green lawn in that one small area coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 About 1/2" in those storms. CG lightining was nuts. Counted about 1/2 dozen strikes nearby. Gusty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Exactly what the fear was..rich getting even richer poor going bankrupt HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN PINPOINTING THIS AREA AS FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTION. TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITYTO BUILD SLOWLY N WITH TIME...REACHING INTO MASS PIKE CORRIDOR BYMIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS PROBABLY ACROSS EASTERN MA ASOPPOSED TO W NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Exactly what the fear was..rich getting even richer poor going bankrupt HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN PINPOINTING THIS AREA AS FAVORED LOCATION FOR CONVECTION. TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BUILD SLOWLY N WITH TIME...REACHING INTO MASS PIKE CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS PROBABLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS OPPOSED TO W NEW ENGLAND. We lush and green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Some spots down by Tiverton have about 3.5" per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Pretty stormy night at home. Woke up a few times during the night with some thunder and decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 absolutely pouring here for the last 15 minutes, slow mover, going to be some flooding issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 We lush and green. We not Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan 13 mins · Scattered thunderstorms today could drop a lot of rain in a few towns. I'm hoping my town is one of them because it's been awfully dry lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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