TalcottWx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I've been completely out of the loop but just looked at everything; we really do well on these events, I think today has hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I like the hail threat from north shore right down to the south shore along the seabreeze boundary. Should enhance storms as they track along it during the evening. NAM and BTV WRF both have been pretty good this summer with tstorms and look similar. HRRR/RAP aren't meaningful at this range. We have clear skies, modest daytime heating, definite forcing, drier dp's than we would maybe like and a lack of substantial mid level lapse rates. But any storms that shoot up could drop severe hail and wind. Hail especially due to the very cold temperatures aloft. 5-8pm Looks like storms track NW-SE through eastern ma east of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Tornado warning in eastern NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Pretty decent signal of some severe possible on Sunday ahead of torch..dews low 70's..weakening s/w and front. Some places might have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 We could see an isolated strong to severe storm on Sunday if sufficient instability can develop. Flash flooding could be more of a concern with the high dews and PWATS and pretty much nil shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Thunder today has been sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Any spinner threat at all early am tomorrow with the warm front? Decent LCL's.. And water temps in mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Any spinner threat at all early am tomorrow with the warm front? Decent LCL's.. And water temps in mid 70's. Not really seeing any threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Thursday could be an interesting day but right now it seems the better mid-level winds are lagging behind the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Don't sleep on tomorrow's pm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Don't sleep on tomorrow's pm threat meh...shear is garbage and heights rise pretty good throughout the day. Not to mention I don't really see any type of s/w moving through during the afternoon either. As always with heat/humidity a storm can spark and briefly become strong to borderline severe but other than that probably nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Just about anything possible tomorrow OVERALL WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDER- STORMS THAT MAY CONTAIN ANY ONE OF SEVERAL THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT AS BOTH THE CIPS ANALOGS AND SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE IS THAT SUCH THREATS LOOK TO BE DISCRETE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. NOT REALLY SURE HOW THIS IS ALL GOING TO PLAY OUT. A CHAOTIC FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE PARTS AND NO REAL CERTAINTY OTHER THAN AN ANTICIPATED OUTCOME OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I'm just not seeing any threat at all with perhaps some showers and perhaps some thunder with the warm front but the warm front doesn't appear to be all that active. As the days goes on as well heights really begin to rise and mid-levels warm somewhat. Plus I still don't see any sort of trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I'd be satisfied with some flashes and rumbles tonight, but it doesn't seem likely. More meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I'm just not seeing any threat at all with perhaps some showers and perhaps some thunder with the warm front but the warm front doesn't appear to be all that active. As the days goes on as well heights really begin to rise and mid-levels warm somewhat. Plus I still don't see any sort of trigger Sipprell pulls his trigger and shoots you. Bang bang FOCUS TURNS TO THE W FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON PERIOD. LAGGING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY SW-NE PARENT TO A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH THETA-E / THERMAL AXIS FROM THE SW ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG AND AHEAD. APPEARING AS A HIGH INSTABILITY / LOW SHEAR EVENT WITH INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 1-2K J/KG. CONSIDERING TRIGGERS OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE / OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES / DESTABILIZATION WITH A PWAT ENVIRONMENT AROUND 1.25-1.50 INCHES WITH A WESTERLY MEAN-WIND OF AROUND 15 KTS...LOOKING AT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL / HEAVY RAIN / STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. FOCUS IS MAINLY OVER THE N/W/CENTRAL-AREAS OF S NEW ENGLAND WHERE CLOUD DEBRIS LOOKS TO CLEAR ALLOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. GAINING A MEASURE OF CONFIDENCE...SREF PROBABILITY GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INSTABILITY OVER W NEW ENGLAND SEPARATED FROM HIGH-VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO THE E AND OFFSHORE. CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES WITH A LEVEL OF SEVERITY APPEAR LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 this one the other night here at work was kinda cute....i guess produced some damage just west of here..down trees etc...microburstesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 this one the other night here at work was kinda cute....i guess produced some damage just west of here..down trees etc...microburstesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 this one the other night here at work was kinda cute....i guess produced some damage just west of here..down trees etc...microburstesque Nice--the second one in particular. Maybe we can get a rumble or two today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 BOX has shifted it's interest from western zones to the Northeastern Mass I guess..... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...655 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVINGINTO WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT. HAVE NOTED SOME FLEETINGROTATIONAL SIGNATURES ON DOPPLER RADAR SOUTH OF ALBANY.HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RIGHT NOW BUTTHERE IS NO CAPE WHATSOEVER. THERE IS AN AREA OF 1000 SURFACE-BASED CAPE JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND WHICH IS POISED TOSPREAD NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. SPC SREF SEVERE WX PARAMETERSARE HIGHLIGHTING THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AROUND 18Z FOR THE GREATESTPOTENTIAL FOR ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. WIND FIELDS BECOMEQUITE WEAK ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD DIMINISH SEVEREPOTENTIAL BUT WITH STRONG CAPE THERE COULD BE A LOT OF LIGHTNINGAND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 @RyanBretonWX: New: @NWSSPC now highlighting interior SNE for a few strong t'storms this afternoon. Damaging winds greatest threat. http://t.co/8iunjIXhTJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Weak trigger/mid-level cap, low shear/high cape environment. Looking at possible isolated/pulse strong storms in the marginal risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I don't see any threat at all for anything. The degree of lift is way to weak...orographic lift is not going to cut it in this case. Shear is so non-existent that any updrafts that try to build are going to collapse on themselves almost right away (updrafts will become downdraft dominated very quickly b/c there is not enough shear to separate the two). Not to mention you have decent capping between about 650-550mb as shown on several soundings. Plus you have pretty decent height rises aloft. Stuff may try to get going but it's going to have trouble getting past 10-12k in height I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 North of pike day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 probably see some brief heavy rainers producing torrential downpours and maybe a few lightning strikes if lucky. Just don't see anything developing substantial enough to produce lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 One of those days where we'll see scattered severe storms while other towns (like mine since we don't rain or storm anymore) get nothing. Should see 5 or more warned storms today from about ORH south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 It is interesting though to see the HRRR spit out scattered activity. We have had setups this summer where several parameters looked pretty solid but it showed nothing. I still really don't like the setup today...I think anything that tries to develop is quickly going to become downdraft dominated and too early to introduce wet microburst potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I don't see any threat at all for anything. The degree of lift is way to weak...orographic lift is not going to cut it in this case. Shear is so non-existent that any updrafts that try to build are going to collapse on themselves almost right away (updrafts will become downdraft dominated very quickly b/c there is not enough shear to separate the two). Not to mention you have decent capping between about 650-550mb as shown on several soundings. Plus you have pretty decent height rises aloft. Stuff may try to get going but it's going to have trouble getting past 10-12k in height I would imagine. probably see some brief heavy rainers producing torrential downpours and maybe a few lightning strikes if lucky. Just don't see anything developing substantial enough to produce lots of lightning. It is interesting though to see the HRRR spit out scattered activity. We have had setups this summer where several parameters looked pretty solid but it showed nothing. I still really don't like the setup today...I think anything that tries to develop is quickly going to become downdraft dominated and too early to introduce wet microburst potential. Well--since you're the severe guru, I'll take your word for it. I'll still hope for a rumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Suns been out most of the day. Storms firing in ENY and Pa. Let's hope they bang together on their way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Suns been out most of the day. Storms firing in ENY and Pa. Let's hope they bang together on their way east Minimal sun here, but its the best it's been in the last 30 minutes, launching us into the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.